2021 Fall Camp Preview: Who steps up opposite Carson Wells at outside linebacker?

BOULDER — Carson Wells was one of Colorado’s best stories in 2020… Could another breakout player at outside linebacker be on the way in 2021?

While Wells is a lock to hold down one of the starting jobs this year, the other is very much up for grabs. A three-man rotation split the reps a year ago, but somebody could take over the job this season.

As fall camp is only a few weeks away, here are the storylines to watch out for.

Just how good is Carson Wells?

Carson Wells finally arrived in 2020.

A strong finish to the 2018 campaign made him a hot name among CU fans heading into his sophomore season in 2019. But despite retaining the starting job for the entire year, Wells disappointed; Wells finished the season with 3 tackles for loss, including a sack—down from 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks the prior season, despite playing 67% more snaps.  

The breakout finally occurred in Week 1 of the 2020 season against UCLA. Wells didn’t notch a sack in the game (making it one of two games all season he didn’t have a sack) but he consistently provided pressure, while picking off a pass and just about intercepting another.

By the end of the year, Wells was first in the nation in tackles for loss per game and sixth in sacks per game.

Take a look at all the different ways he impacted games last season for yourself.

But the question now is what Wells can accomplish in a 12-game season.

A level of skepticism will follow Wells, just like any other player who broke out during the shortened 2020 season. He has absolutely proven that he is a good player at the Power 5 level, but does he actually belong among the nation’s elite linebackers?

Wells’ name will appear on every preseason All-Pac-12 list, and it might even appear on some all-America lists, but where will he slot in at the end of the year? All-Pac-12 should be the expectation, but he has a real shot to be among the best in the country.

What does CU want from the other outside linebacker?

What makes Wells so valuable is his versatility.

While he’s best known for his ability to rush the passer and slip into the backfield to make plays in the running game, his ability to drop back into coverage and make plays in the flat is makes him tough to prepare for on a down-to-down basis. His fastball is using his speed, power and refined technique to get by offensive linemen, but his changeup is dropping back into the flat, which leaves a lineman blocking nobody and can confuse the quarterback.

Sure, covering from the outside linebacker spot doesn’t require high-end cover ability, but Wells’ feel for flat zone coverage is exceptional and he changed games while in coverage, including the UCLA game mentioned above.

Ideally, whoever starts opposite Wells will have a similar blend of skills but Colorado doesn’t have any other proven Swiss Army knives at the position. So here’s what the priorities will be when choosing a starter.

1. Knowing the run fits and being able to set the edge in the run game
2. Pass-rushing capability
3. The ability to make plays in coverage

Stopping the run should be the strength of Colorado’s defense and the coaching staff won’t jeopardize that by playing somebody who has been making mistake in the run game during practice. There’s a standard in the run game that every inside linebacker will have to meet just to be in the conversation for the starting job. Anything beyond that will only help his case.

Once the linebackers prove they can meet that standard, the pass-rushing

Who is in the running?

There are three clear-cut candidates for the second starting job: junior Guy Thomas, redshirt freshman Joshka Gustav and junior Jamar Montgomery.

Those three linebackers split the snaps last season almost evenly, though the numbers would likely have skewed in favor of Thomas if he hadn’t missed a game-and-a-half due to injury. Thomas was the starter for the first three games of the season and the Buffs opted to start a fifth defensive back in two of the others, while Montgomery started one. Despite being the only one of the linebackers who didn’t start a game a year ago, Gustav actually saw the field the most by a slim margin.

Here’s how the snaps broke down in 2020:

Carson Wells: 364
Joshka Gustav: 115
Guy Thomas: 104
Jamar Montgomery: 104

It was basically a three-man rotation across from Wells, but they were used differently.

Wells: 37% run defense, 47% pass rush, 16% coverage
Gustav: 23% run defense, 67% pass rush, 10% coverage
Thomas: 50% run defense, 40% pass rush, 10% coverage
Montgomery: 37% run defense, 42% pass rush, 21% coverage

While the defensive coordinator can’t decide whether the offense passes or runs the ball, he knows which is more likely on any given play and he clearly favored Thomas in those situations. Gustav was used as a situational pass-rusher with much of his work coming on third downs. Prior to Thomas’ injury, the general plan was for Thomas to be the run-stuffer, Gustav to be the pass-rusher and Montgomery to fill in when needed, but Montgomery’s workload doubled after Thomas went down with the injury.

Can Joshka Gustav become a three-down player?

The favorite to win the job, in my opinion, is Gustav.

Here’s why: He led the trio of contenders in snaps last season, despite 2020 being just his second year on campus, while playing a position where size and strength are important. Plus, he only played three years of football in high school after moving to the United States from Germany. Gustav achieved all of that despite missing much of the 2020 fall camp because of a sprained ankle. He’s developed quickly and it’s easy to see how his dramatic upward trajectory could continue.

Oh, and there’s this from outside linebackers coach Brian Michalowski this spring:

“He’s developed some great signature rushes, which has been great to see—some rushes that are very similar to Joey Bosa. I know that’s a lofty comparison but they work a lot of similar pass rush moves and he does a great job of hand placement at the point of attack.”

If Gustav is really playing like a two-time first-team NFL All-Pro, then it’s probably safe to say he’s the favorite in the competition. (Michalowski also mentioned Gustav’s attention to detail and called him a sponge for information.)

It’s fair to be skeptical about the comparison, but consider this: according to Colorado’s official statistics, Gustav provided seven quarterback pressures in 2020. That was the most of any Buffalo, edging out Wells and Mustafa Johnson, who each had five. Montgomery and Thomas were credited with one a piece.

(Pro Football Focus counts pressures differently and said Wells and Johnson each had 18, while Gustav had eight and Thomas and Montgomery each had three.)

Oh, and Gustav kept getting better as the season progressed, with four of his six quarterback hits coming in the final two games of the season.

Colorado’s coaching staff clearly likes what they’ve seen from Gustav and that stats back up the hype; although Gustav is yet to produce a sack or any other play that holds the offense at the line of scrimmage or behind it.

Could Gustav be ready for a breakout campaign in 2021?

Can Guy Thomas hold on to the starting job?

Thomas is the incumbent and that absolutely counts for something. He’s a veteran option and the coaching staff clearly trusts him to fulfill his duties, though he hasn’t made much of an impact in the passing game.

But there are some numbers that work in Thomas’ favor.

Thomas had three tackles for no gain or a loss a season ago, while Montgomery only had one and Gustav didn’t have any.

Thomas also had three third-down stops, while Gustav had one and Montgomery didn’t have any.

Thomas is a veteran option, and while he wasn’t an All-Pac-12-caliber player, he was an important cog in a very good defense. Even if Gustav steps up this season, it may make sense to keep a rotation at this position so everybody is well-rested when it’s their time to see the field. You wouldn’t want Gustav to be tired on third down when he’s supposed to be putting his best attributes to use.

Who is the future of the position?

Obviously, Gustav fits into the future at outside linebacker but at least two will have to factor in at any point in time.

Jason Harris was supposed to be the other half of Colorado’s future pass-rushing duo, but the six-foot-eight, four-star recruit opted to transfer closer to home during his true freshman year last season.

Now, there’s a bit of a hole.

Second-year true freshman Alvin Williams garnered some praise during spring ball as did Devin Grant, who is entering his third season on campus. Colorado also signed Zion Magalei as part of its 2021 class, and he’s the only other outside linebacker currently on CU’s roster. CU also earned a commitment from an outside linebacker in the 2022 class.

There’s plenty of room for one of the young guys to break out this season, so keep an eye on them as camp progresses.