Winning teams are losers, analyzing our Week 8 NFL picks

 

This stretch we’re going through is hard to explain. YPP has not had success the last two weeks and our picks have suffered as a result. We’re coming off a winless Week 8 going 0-3 to take us under .500 on the year for the first time all season (now 15-16-1).

YPP is a reliable metric, we’ve talked about it on the podcast, and it’s even beginning to pay dividends when applied to our college football picks (which went 4-0 this week with YPP’s assistance). So why the metric is having such little success of late with the NFL picks isn’t easy to figure out. The raw YPP spreads were 4-and-7 this week, with differentials over 5 points going 1-2, and differentials over 3 going 3-5. It’s hard to find winners when sifting through that.

Our updated EW based off of this years points scored and points against weren’t much better at 4-and-8 (the YPP spread and actual spread for the Houston game were exactly the same so it doesn’t count). Consensus games, as a result – meaning games both sets of data liked – were 3-6, again not good.

The only set of numbers that did have a successful week were the EW numbers we used at the begging of the year, which are based on the preseason Over/Under win totals. That metric went 7-5 on the week, though it should be said only 3-3 in differentials of 3 points or more.

With that, we’re bringing back the original EW numbers in this piece. We’re far from losing hope but there’s no denying this week did not go well.

Here’s what happened for us to end up 0-3.

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Arizona digs too deep a hole to get out of

The Carolina Panthers were 3 point favorites at home against the Arizona Cardinals, making this pick one of the easier ones of the week on the surface. But betting on the Cardinals there’s always the chance that their quarterback, Carson Palmer, has one of “those games”, a Jake Delhomme type game where he tosses out turnovers at a healthy pace.

With Palmer losing an odd fumble returned for a touchdown and the Cards having few answers to the Panthers running game, this bet was in trouble early on. By the 2:45 mark in the second quarter Arizona was in a 24-0 hole that seemed impossible to get out of, all the while the Panthers looked back to their 2015 form.

Arizona made it competitive, closing the gap to 20-30 before Palmer threw another interception to Kony Ealy with his team driving down the field with over three minutes left. Hope of getting a push vanished quickly once that happened.

The Panthers defense, which had been such a liability so far this season, really kicked things into gear. The line and front seven managed to create 8 sacks on Palmer and the two turnovers. Not only did Carolina seem to find their mojo defensively but the run game, with a full return from Jonathan Stewart, was also in fine shape. It might be too little too late, but if they’re able to play the way they did Sunday, Carolina won’t be an easy out for anyone.

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Tom Brady is good, real freaking good

We’d adjusted the numbers for the New England Patriots with Tom Brady and even then the -7 spread seemed too high. Particularly with the game being played in Buffalo against the Bills.

That logic was sound until you put in the tape and see Brady put on an absolute passing clinic. When the first two touchdowns came off of 3rd-and-9 and 3-and-13 you knew this wasn’t going to be easy. The 3rd-and-13 long bomb TD to Chris Hogan is the type of play a quarterback in his late 30’s shouldn’t be able to make, but that’s Brady and the 2016 Pats offense for you.

By the 4:18 mark in the second quarter, as Rob Gronkowski ran for a 53-yard score, you just knew the Bills were doomed not to cover, even if the game was only 21-10.

The Bills run game wasn’t the problem without LeSean McCoy as his replacement Mike Gillislee ran for 7.1 yards per attempt and the Bills as a team had 167 yards for 6.4 average.

The problem was keeping up with a surgical Brady who put up 4 TDs in the blink of an eye, on top of some special teams mistakes. So far New England has had large spreads since their quarterback’s return and they’ve covered every single one. Since No. 12’s return, they’ve won their four games by a 16 point average. New England is 7-1 against the spread on the year, an impressive figure for a team that regularly gets respect from the Vegas line makers.

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A 7-point swing dooms Atlanta

This seemed like another easy call, with the Atlanta Falcons being 3 point favorites in their dome against the Green Bay Packers who were struggling mightily.

A big swing in this game and the final score took place at the end of the second quarter; the Falcons missed a 2-point conversion closing the gap on the Packers to 21-19 (instead of 21-all), then Aaron Rodgers invented a few plays to get into field goal range with 27 seconds remaining, pushing the lead to 24-19. If the half had ended 21-all as it very well could have and should have, we’re probably talking about an Atlanta cover here.

Spread aside, the Falcons were in real trouble of losing this one as the Packers offense seemed to finally figure some things out and was up 32-26 with just over 3:30 minutes left in the game. At that point, it was clear that any chance of covering here was impossible.

On the surface, it would appear as if we got caught by the Packers playing better than they have so far this year offensively, but their 5.5 yard-per-play average in the game matches their season average.

Green Bay did manage to win the clock battle despite having no semblance of a run game and was able to convert a 2-point conversion and score the late FG at the half, while the Falcons missed on their conversion. That all ended up being a 7 point swing, our YPP spread was Falcons -10. Games like this happen every week, but on weeks like this one, they hurt that much more.

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YPP’s one good call that we missed on

There was one YPP differential over 5 points that we decided to stay away from; the Chicago Bears +5.5 at home vs the Minnesota Vikings. Given that Chicago was changing quarterbacks with the return of Jay Cutler, that they’d burned us the last two weeks, and that they were playing against a Vikings team coming off their first loss of the season, we just couldn’t trust this one, even after we adjusted the numbers for Cutler’s return.

Yet, the numbers proved to be absolutely right, as Chicago was -4.5 per YPP and won by 10 at home. The Vikings defense is beginning to struggle to overcome their offensive deficiencies and YPP had predicted that dating back to their loss Week 7.

The other two games with margins over 3.5 points that YPP predicted correctly (the metric went 2-2 in games with 3.5 differentials) were the New Orleans Saints as -1 favorites, and the Washington Redskins as underdogs in London. EW particularly liked Washington with a 6 point differential in favor. However, the YPP differential was a bit small for us to go off of, on top of the added international game factor.

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Early numbers preview

Below we’re bringing back our EW numbers that are based on the preseason Over/Under numbers. We’re not abandoning our updated EW stats, but considering the old version was the only winning metric for us in the week, it was time to bring it back in to start our preview of Week 9.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
ATL	-3.5	7.5
@TB		7.5		3	-3	6.5
PIT		10.5	4		-1
@BAL		8.5		3
DAL	-7.5	8.5	8		-5
@CLE		4.5		3		2.5
JAX		7.5				2
@KC	-9	9.5	4	3	-7
NYJ		7.5
@MIA	-3.5	7.5		3	-3	0.5
PHI		7.5
@NYG	-2.5	8.5	2	3	-5	2.5
DET		7
@MIN	-6.5	9.5	5	3	-8	1.5
CAR	-3	10.5	6		-3	0
@LAR		7.5		3
NO	-3	7
@SF		5.5	3	3	-6	3
TEN		6				0.5
@SD	-5.5	7	2	3	-5
IND		9.5				2
@GB	-7	10.5	2	3	-5
DEN		9	1			1
@OAK	-1	8.5		3	-2
BUF		8
@SEA	-7	10.5	5	3	-8	1