Winning meaningless games could affect more than just the Broncos draft position

DENVER — The age-old debate over whether the Broncos should “tank” for draft position or win for pride has been discussed ad nauseam in Denver. Both sides have been covered with a thick blanket 10 times over.

(Our story on the affects of winning on the team’s draft position here) 

(Our story on why the team’s refusal to tank is a good thing here)

But recent developments in the AFC West have birthed a new layer to the debate, meaning we can fire it up all over again.

Please contain your excitement.

You see, as Derek Carr took a completely unnecessary risk, dove for the pylon and fumbled away the Raiders’ chance at beating the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, he helped to bring Oakland (6-8) within one game of the Broncos (5-9) for last place in the division.

Now, it would be hard to find many people in this town that would complain about the Broncos jumping over the Raiders and slapping cellar-dweller status on the Silver & Black, but your ability to point downwards and laugh at your rivals would come at a slight price.

Here’s why:

If you aren’t familiar, the way the NFL schedule is composed is as follows:

• Six games against fellow AFC West opponents (two against each team)
• Four games against a different, rotating AFC division
• Four games against a rotating NFC division
• Two games against the teams from the other two AFC divisions that finished in the same place as you.

So, based on the top three bullet points, we already know that the Broncos will face the following opponents next season:

AFC WEST

Oakland Raiders (x2)

Kansas City Chiefs (x2)

Los Angeles Chargers (x2)

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals

Those 14 games are already set in stone for next year, the final two teams on the schedule will be determined by what place the Broncos finish in the AFC West.

With the Broncos final two opponents being the 6-8 Redskins and a Kansas City team that may not have anything to play for, it’s not inconceivable that they could win out. Conversely, the Raiders take on the Philadelphia Eagles, who are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Los Angeles Chargers, who could still be fighting for a playoff spot themselves. It’s not crazy for the Raiders to lose out.

Here’s the thing, though, based on NFL divisional tiebreakers, the Raiders wouldn’t even have to lose out to take last place if the Broncos were to win their last game.

Tiebreaker No. 1: Head to head matchups (the Broncos and Raider split their two games).

Tiebreaker No. 2: Record within the division.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Both the Broncos and Raiders have a 2-3 record within the division with one matchup remaining. If the Broncos were to go 2-0 and the Raiders were to go 1-1 with their loss coming against the Chargers, Oakland would find themselves in the cellar.

There’s still a lot that needs to play out, and everybody has their own opinions on what the Broncos should be playing for, but the ways things look right now, it’s hard to argue that you wouldn’t rather play the Colts and Jets next season instead of the Dolphins and Texans.

Two games in the scope of a sixteen-game season may not seem like much but, as we know, two games is more than enough to be the difference between home field advantage, a first-round bye, a spot in the playoffs or merely a spot on the couch.