Wind: Why the Nuggets are one of the losers of the Kawhi Leonard trade

The San Antonio Spurs were backed into a corner when Kawhi Leonard made it known on June 15 that he had no desire to continue his career with the only NBA franchise he’s ever played for. By demanding a trade from San Antonio and listing the Lakers as his one and only preferred destination, Leonard had many interested suitors in theory, but the organization that controlled his immediate future had zero leverage.

Sam Presti’s daring move one year ago to trade for Paul George and bet on his organization’s culture and Russell Westbrook’s authenticity to sell George on a future with the Thunder paid off for Oklahoma City. But it didn’t mean that rival franchises would unequivocally follow suit. The Celtics were reportedly interested in Leonard and could put together the league’s most enticing trade package around Jaylen Brown if they wanted to. However, Boston couldn’t take the chance that Leonard would bolt to Los Angeles next summer and leave them with nothing.

The Raptors apparently could.

Leonard could return to the Western Conference as soon as the trade deadline if reports that he has no desire to play for Toronto, who acquired him Wednesday for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 first round pick, hold up. He could also return West next summer if the Raptors can’t convince the two-time Defensive Player of the Year to remain north of the border.

Regardless, the Spurs and Gregg Popovich aren’t going anywhere.

There will be no rebuild in San Antonio. The Spurs parted ways with Leonard but in return got a four-time All-Star and scoring machine in DeRozan. By doing so, San Antonio kept pace in a Western Conference where last season seeds 3-9 were separated by just three games.

DeRozan is no Leonard. When healthy, Leonard can put LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Stephen Curry, and the league’s most potent offensive forces in a straitjacket. Leonard forces coaching staffs to scrap their gameplans entirely and draw up secondary and tertiary counters in the half court that entirely eliminate their best player — who Leonard’s guarding — from their own offensive schemes. DeRozan doesn’t strike fear into opposing teams on either end of the floor to that degree.

DeRozan is an offensive savant and gifted shotmaker in his own right, but even during his career year in 2017 — when he averaged 27.3 points per game on 46.7 percent shooting from the field — he didn’t come close to scoring at the efficient levels Leonard did from both two and three-point range over the the last two seasons when he’s been healthy. In a much tougher Western Conference, Leonard shot 50.6 percent from the field and 44.3 percent from distance on 4.0 threes per game in 2015-16. He followed that up by averaging a career-high 25.5 points on 48.5 percent shooting from the field and 38.0 percent from three on an average of 5.2 attempts — 3.5 more threes per game than DeRozan took last year.

For as gifted and skilled as an offensive player that DeRozan is, his game, which did add a more frequent but faulty three-point shot last season that he hit at 31.0 percent, is still caught in the early-mid 2000’s mid-range era. It also comes with a relatively low ceiling in the playoffs.

Still, DeRozan, who’s under team control for two more seasons, isn’t replacing Finals-MVP-and-Defensive-Player-of-the-Year Kawhi Leonard, he’s replacing the Kawhi Leonard who played in just nine games last season. With DeRozan and Poeltl, who should fit into the Spurs’ offensive and defensive scheme just fine, San Antonio strengthened its roster from last year’s 47-win team even if that meant also losing Danny Green. The Spurs’ 17th-ranked offense from a season ago could improve, too.

That’s bad news for the rest of the conference’s playoff contenders, including the Nuggets. If the Spurs dealt Leonard for a package heavy on draft picks and unproven players, San Antonio would have likely slipped out the postseason entirely next year. Overseeing a rebuild was clearly not the route Popovich wanted to take in what could be one of his last few seasons at the Spurs’ helm.

With DeRozan, who will step into the Spurs’ starting lineup likely alongside Dejounte Murray, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol, San Antonio still exists in the final tier of the West’s playoff teams — even if they do so by launching one mid-range jumper after another like it’s 2003.

Popovich is creative enough to craft an above-average defense with his current group in San Antonio, too, similar to how he did last season when the Spurs finished fourth behind the Celtics, Jazz and 76ers in defensive efficiency. DeRozan, who’s a player Popovich knows well from coaching against him for the last nine seasons, could re-energize the best coach in NBA history to write one final chapter before he retires, which could follow the 2020 Olympics.

Until then, Denver, Utah, Portland, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Minnesota and every other Western Conference playoff contender that has postseason aspirations next year, and isn’t considered a lock like Golden State and Houston, will have to deal with San Antonio. The Spurs won’t be a threat for homecourt advantage in the playoffs. They might not make the postseason. But San Antonio won’t be a pushover.

Opposing coaches still won’t sleep well the night before a matchup with the Spurs and a playoff-caliber roster coached by Popovich. They’ll still have to be prepared for ruses and tricks Popovich throws their way like he’s done for the past 20-plus seasons in San Antonio.

With DeRozan, the Spurs don’t have the same ceiling as they did with a healthy Leonard, but they’re still a legitimate factor in the West. That doesn’t bode well for the 12 teams — including the Nuggets, Clippers, Lakers and Grizzlies, all of whom didn’t make the playoffs last year — biding for one of the conference’s eight postseason berths next season.