Wind Chimes: Predicting the Nuggets' playoff rotation

Welcome to Wind Chimes, a notebook of reporting, observations and analysis from me about what I’ve seen, heard and talked to people around the team about over the last week.

We made it.

Eight two regular-season games. Injuries, rehabs, ramping up and ramping down.

The playoffs are here. Game 1 vs. Golden State tips at 6:30 pm MT on Saturday (ABC).

Here’s my best guess as to what the Nuggets’ rotation will look like and my personal confidence ranking for each player (1-10).

Starting 5

Nikola Jokic (10) ≈ 38 minutes/game

How much is Michael Malone going to play Jokic per game? As much as he possibly can. I expect Jokic to play the entire first quarter in the playoffs — instead of subbing out he like usually does with around three minutes on the clock — and just how much he plays could depend on how fatigued he gets (and how effective DeMarcus Cousins is). The Warriors are going to try and tire him out.

Aaron Gordon (9) ≈ 35 minutes/game

Gordon’s Denver’s second-most important player in the series. He’s going to have to clamp down on whoever he’s guarding (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins) and also hit his 3s. The Warriors will surely make Gordon beat them from the 3-point arc.

Monte Morris (8) ≈ 33 minutes/game

Morris is in an entirely different place than he was entering last year’s playoffs. One season ago, he was the Nuggets’ best point guard but came off the bench for Facu Campazzo. Morris is entrenched as the starter now and he’ll come into this matchup with confidence after his game-winner vs. Golden State earlier this season.

Jeff Green (6) ≈ 20 minutes per game

We’re going to see the Nuggets downsize a lot this series with how small the Warriors play, and there’s not a natural matchup for Green. I’m guessing he’ll still start games and open guarding Draymond Green. But to close fourth quarters when the Warriors go to a Green at center look, or even if they stay somewhat big and keep Kevon Looney on the floor, I could see Denver going small to get more perimeter defense on the floor.

Will Barton (5) ≈ 25 minutes/game

Barton likely draws the Thompson or Wiggins matchup and he’ll have his work cut out for him. Do I have confidence that he’ll deliver? Not really, but he has an opportunity to change the narrative on his season with a big first-round series.

The rest

Austin Rivers (7) ≈ 25 minutes/game

I’m predicting Rivers plays a ton this series. First, he’s the Nuggets’ best perimeter defender. Second, he has come through for Denver in the playoffs before. I bet he’s closing most games and matched up on Curry a ton. Rivers has fared OK guarding Curry this season. He’s Denver’s best option to chase him around the court.

Bones Hyland (6) ≈ 18 minutes/game

Malone’s confidence in Hyland has obviously grown from where it was pre All-Star break, but this is still a rookie in his first playoffs against a veteran team and coach who will know how to take advantage of his weaknesses. I’m still expecting Hyland to show out. I’m still anticipating a takeover quarter or two or three where he catches fire from deep. But I can see a world where Rivers is outplaying him because of his defense. Hyland vs. Gary Payton II is a matchup off the bench to watch.

JaMychal Green (6) ≈ 15 minutes/game

Green recovered from a dreadful open to the season to reclaim his spot as the Nuggets’ first big off their bench. I think that’s the role he’ll play vs. the Warriors. He’s solid and somewhat reliable. I’m not expecting fireworks, but Denver doesn’t need that from him.

DeMarcus Cousins (7) ≈ 13 minutes/game

Cousins might be a top-5 most important player for the Nuggets in this series. If he can effectively spell Jokic and win the minutes when the MVP is resting, that bodes incredibly well for Denver. If not, Jokic will be pushing 40 minutes on most nights. The Nuggets need Cousins to stay composed and locked in. His 3-pointer needs to be dropping too. That’s another shot the Warriors will let the Nuggets beat them with.

I think Malone ultimately settles on a nine-man rotation. Bryn Forbes could get some run simply because the Nuggets need as much shooting as they can get if they’re going to keep up with Golden State. But in the end, I think the Nuggets pivot away from him because he can’t be relied on defensively. It’s great that Zeke Nnaji got back on the floor for the regular-season finale, but he’s missed too much time for Malone to trust him in the playoffs. Facu Campazzo is there in case of emergency.

That’s how I envision the rotation sorting itself out.

Thought? Let me know in the comment section below.

DNVR Member Question of the Week

Here was last week’s question: If both Murray and Porter don’t return this year, what would constitute a successful season for the Nuggets? A first-round win? A competitive playoff series?

DNVR Member PleaForIntellegence said…