Wind Chimes: MPJ’s injury, G League rumblings and Denver’s scouting focus

Welcome to Wind Chimes, a notebook of reporting, observations and analysis from me about what I’ve seen, heard and talked to people around the team about over the last week.

MPJ’s injury: What preceded it and what followed

For as hesitant, passive, and not like himself as Michael Porter Jr. has looked this season, the first few minutes of the Nuggets’ win over the Rockets — even before Porter left the game with “lower back soreness” — were an adventure, to say the least.

Just watch these plays from, once again, before Porter was injured.

First, the opening tip. Nikola Jokic taps the ball towards Porter, but Porter lets it simply bounce out of bounds. Jokic and Monte Morris are miffed.

On the Rockets’ first possession of the game, Porter gets beat badly to this loose ball. Jokic is again wondering what the hell just happened.

Will Barton hits the Nuggets’ first 3 of the game, and Porter casually jogs back in transition, then tries to pick up Jalen Green and then Kevin Porter Jr. before Barton tells him his man, Jae’Sean Tate is actually standing alone in the opposite corner.

At the 9:41 mark of the first, Porter turns down a wide-open transition 3 on a 3-on-2 fastbreak, picks up his dribble, and passes to a covered Barton.

Finally, the injury. What an opening three minutes.

OK, one more. After the win, Michael Malone said this when discussing Porter’s injury.

“That’s karma, man. Just give the ball to Will Barton and lay it up, and we’re not even in this situation,” he joked.

What a weird night. I wonder how Porter took that comment.

I’m concerned about this Porter injury. Denver canceled its 11 a.m. Sunday practice after the Nuggets watched film in the morning and before players began their on-court work, a source told DNVR, but Porter was never going to participate. His injury also wasn’t connected to the canceled practice. As I reported, Porter underwent further testing Sunday, which you can assume included an MRI. That’s the Nuggets’ standard protocol following most injuries. If you follow that timeline, the decision was then made to rule Porter out of Monday’s matchup against the Heat with “low back pain,” which Denver announced when it revealed its injury report.

This feels like something a little different than just the standard back tightness Porter has dealt with and played through at times over the last few seasons. Porter jumped off and then grabbed his left hip/leg after his awkward landing. It’s the same leg that Porter’s worn the AFO brace on for the last three seasons that helps with his drop foot which developed after two lower back surgeries.

We’ll likely have a better idea about how many games Porter could miss in the coming days.

3-point shooting

The Nuggets have slipped all the way to 29th in 3-point shooting as of Monday morning. Only the Detroit Pistons are shooting worse than Denver from beyond the arc this season. I still think this percentage eventually corrects itself but a lot of it might be up to Michael Porter Jr. (obviously Denver’s 3-point outlook takes an enormous hit if he misses significant time and can’t chip in a high volume of triples.)

If Porter was shooting 45% from 3 — his conversion rate from beyond the arc last year — on the same amount of attempts he’s already hoisted this season, the Nuggets as a team would be shooting 36% from 3. That would be the 7th-best mark in the league.

But here’s another angle to Denver’s substandard 3-point percentage and a way the Nuggets can improve their shooting even if Porter misses time. Many of the Nuggets’ 3s aren’t coming in rhythm or within the flow of their offense. I mean, how many times have we said, ‘The Ball is Poppin’ this season? How many times have we yelled that phrase and then seen a made triple? Not a lot. There’s a big difference between in-rhythm and non-rhythm 3s. The Nuggets are last in the NBA in drives, pick-and-roll frequency and are a much worse offensive rebounding team than they were last season. Those are all variables that typically lead to in-rhythm shots.

Many of Denver’s non-rhythm 3-point attempts are coming early in the shot clock too. The Nuggets are currently averaging 6.3 3-point attempts per game with 22-18 seconds remaining on the shot clock. Denver’s shooting just 29.8% (17-57) on those “very early” 3s, as NBA.com categorizes them. Last season, the Nuggets averaged 4.8 “very early” shot clock 3s per game but shot 39% on shots of that variety. Against Houston, Denver shot 2-9 on 3s when the shot clock had 22-18 seconds left.

I mean, look at some of these early shot clock attempts.

The Nuggets are averaging 34.8 3-pointers per game, which is only 0.6 more 3s per game than they shot last season. But they’re taking more 3-pointers earlier in the shot clock. The quality of their looks has dropped off significantly.

More Chimes

Nikola Jokic is currently shooting 59.9% from the field, 40% from 3-point range and 82.2% from the line. If he holds those averages and gets his FG% over 60%, he could post the first 60-40-80 season in NBA history. Richaun Holmes, John Collins, Seth Curry and Gary Payton II are all also currently shooting nearly 60% from the field, 40% from 3 and 80% from the free-throw line. Jokic would obviously be doing it on much higher volume.

Jokic also now leads the NBA in Defensive Rating out of the 91 players currently averaging at least 30 minutes per game. Carry on.

Here’s who I’ve heard has looked good up in Grand Rapids where the Nuggets’ G League affiliate is conducting training camp: Nik Stauskas, Petr Cornelie, and Lance Stephenson, who’s taken up a leadership role with the team, a source told DNVR. I’d expect several call-ups from the Gold to the Nuggets this season.

In the scouting world: Denver just sent a trusted scout on a three-month Eurotrip, and with a likely luxury tax payment looming in 2022-23, I could see the Nuggets placing a priority on trying to find a couple of lower-cost Torrey Craig or Facu Campazzo-types to bring over and fill out their second unit next season.

Bol Bol, Vlatko Cancar, and Austin Rivers are also free agents after this year. Next summer is a long way away, but as of right now I’d be surprised if any of those three returned. The end of Denver’s bench will likely look much different next season. Perhaps some of those spots are filled courtesy of the Nuggets’ new G League pipeline.