Why trading for Kevin Hayes seems like a bad idea - and almost certainly won't happen

There is no question that the New York Rangers want to make some deals before the Feb. 25 NHL trade deadline, and one of the teams they have been heavily following of late is the Colorado Avalanche. They have had two scouts following them everywhere lately – including Colorado Eagles games.

The Rangers are a mediocre-to-poor team with a big, bloated payroll, a team that is on the hook to pay 36-year-old goalie Henrik Lundqvist $8.5 million for the next two seasons and free-agent disappointment Kevin Shattenkirk $6.65 million for the next two. They also are a team with a couple of forwards on expiring contracts who can be unrestricted free agents next year – Kevin Hayes and Mats Zuccarello.

Of the two, Hayes is the more attractive of the two as a potential acquisition. He’s 26, while Zuccarello is 31. He’s a big center, while Zuccarello is a small winger. What do the Avs, arguably, need the most right now in their drive to the playoffs? A No. 2 center. (I said “arguably”, as Carl Soderberg has been a very good No. 2 of late).

But there is almost no chance the Avs will trade for Kevin Hayes by Feb. 25, and here’s why: The Avs are simply not going to give away top prospects or top draft picks for any short-term help this season. If Kevin Hayes had three or four years left on his contract, at his current salary ($5.175 million), they might consider moving a nice pick and/or prospect for him.

But a guy who could get away for nothing as a UFA? No chance at all the Avs will give up anything they deem as a part of their future for a guy like that. None. This is not the Avs of 1995-2005, folks. Those Avs teams could afford to give away draft picks and prospects for short-term help. They have two Stanley Cup banners hanging from the rafters of the Pepsi Center because of that.

The Avs by this time next year should have the following three players on their roster:

• Cale Makar, who is having a phenomenal sophomore season with UMass-Amherst.
• Conor Timmins, who seems to have finally overcome his concussion symptoms and should start playing again soon (more on him later in this piece) and
• A top-10 (and likely top 5, and maybe the No. 1) pick from this summer’s NHL draft. Plus, they’ll have their own first-round pick.

Plus, they almost certainly will go out and sign a nice free agent or two this summer, as they will have pretty good cap space.

So, while Hayes’ name is popping up in published trade rumors involving the Avs right now – and I might have helped stoke the rumors with a couple tweets yesterday asking Rangers fans to assess him as a player – there is zero chance Hayes will become an Av by Feb. 25.

Well, unless they could sign him to an extension after the trade. That’s the only way a trade for Hayes would make any sense. The Avs have liked Hayes before. They were one of the teams that really pursued him when he became a UFA in 2014 out of Boston College, when he became a UFA after being unable to come to agreement on a contract with the team that originally drafted in the first round, the Chicago Blackhawks.

Hayes wound up choosing the Rangers. In 349 games as a Ranger, Hayes has scored 83 goals and 207 points. In 34 playoff games, he has two goals and 10 points.

Does this sound like a guy the Avs should give up a lot to get in a trade? The offensive numbers certainly don’t suggest it. He’s considered a pretty good defensive center, but the Avs need a guy who can reliably score on that second line. His numbers this season look pretty good – 33 points in 39 games, a plus-6, pretty good puck-possession numbers.

Have I mentioned he’s in a contract year? Kevin Hayes has proven himself to be a 40-50 point guy in the NHL, arguably a sufficient No. 2 C. That might make him an attractive guy to sign this summer as a free agent, but it makes him a very poor deadline-deal choice for an Avs team still building for the future, a team with some significant young assets on the way soon.

Maybe “very poor” is a bit strong, but Kevin Hayes is not going to turn the Avs into a legit Stanley Cup threat this year. He had a huge senior season at BC because he played on the same line as Johnny Gaudreau. He hasn’t been a true impact player in the NHL since. A nice player? Sure, at times. But not a guy you part with significant assets to get as a short-term rental.

Not at all. Plenty of Rangers fans I queried described him as too inconsistent, a bit too slow. You hear that a bit from scouts, too.

So, forget about those hot and heavy Kevin Hayes trade rumors. If, somehow, the Avs could sign him to an extension and if the Rangers don’t expect a Makar or that Ottawa pick or even their own first-rounder for him, maybe there’s a chance a deal could happen.

But I doubt it. I know Avs fans want to win big right now. But this is still a process, folks. More help is on the way. Better to play the long game still, I think.

OTHER STUFF

OK, the news from practice today: Erik Johnson in the concussion protocol after taking that puck to the face yesterday. Almost certainly won’t play before the all-star break, but I think he’ll be back right after. Anton Lindholm and Dominic Toninato were recalled by the Avs today from the Eagles.

About Conor Timmins: things are looking up. After the all-star break, we should see Timmins try to pass the final tests he needs to pass before he plays real hockey again for the first time since May. What are those tests? Three things, really.

He needs to show he can play in front of a lot of noise from a big crowd. One of the recurring symptoms from concussions is sensitivity to noise. Another is sensitivity to light. Can he play in front of a big crowd in a bright arena? Avs might have to simulate that, but it can be done.

Obviously, the other thing he needs to prove is that he can take a hit and not have immediate symptoms. That is a big one, and we just won’t know until he takes real contact again.

But everything is positive right now. He’s practicing on a daily basis and not having big symptoms. He has gotten the majority of his care from Dr. Jeffrey Kutcher, a neurologist based in Michigan. He’s a leading expert in the treatment of concussions/brain injury in the nation.

If those tests are passed after the break, I expect to see Timmins in a Colorado Eagles uniform no later than February.

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