Why the hand-wringing over the Colorado Rockies lineups is misguided

Over the years, the Colorado Rockies, like every baseball team, have employed some questionable strategies.

Even in the last two years as the team has soared to back to back postseason appearances, there have been heated debates about the makeup and use of the roster.

Chief among these arguments have been whether or not the team is aggressive enough on the trade market or in free agency, where does Charlie Blackmon best fit in the lineup, and how can the club best bring up the next generation of young talent with the veterans they already have?

The one thing that each of these areas of contention have in common though, is that they were natural responses to observable struggles on the baseball diamond.

That is what makes the current conversation around the offense so puzzling.

For each of the last two seasons, Colorado has failed to produce a consistent threat at the plate and they came into 2019 looking like it was going to be more of the same.

Even if you were disinclined to concur with the consensus solutions to these problems, you had to admit they were there.

Interestingly, the Rockies appear to have taken stock of the situation and implemented a relatively dramatic philosophical shift in order to address it. And yet, the criticisms are coming hotter and heavier than ever.

During a recent flurry of BSN Rockies podcasts, questions came flying in about why Bud Black continues to give plate appearances to Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta, why the club appears to have “benched” David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, or Brendan Rodgers on any given day, and whether or not all the inconsistencies are having an overall negative effect on the lineup.

In a vacuum, all of these questions are understandable. However, as opposed to the past where you had to point to process over results in order to give a more nuanced understanding of the Rockies’ decision-making process, in this case, some basic box score stats tell the tale.

And as it turns out it’s pretty easily justifiable.

The change took hold in mid-April when Tapia finally forced himself into a more important role. He started getting more regular starts on the 16th of that month and has since hit .314/.359/.628 (144 wRC+) with five home runs over 92 plate appearances in 26 games.

That in and of itself signifies a shift in thinking but it’s what happened on the other side of those additional at-bats for Tapia that has made things so interesting.

Desmond has seen his playing time reduced while his production has dramatically increased. Since that same April 16 changeover, he is hitting .275/.378/.565 (134 wRC+) with four home runs.

This newly-formed dynamic is a huge part of why the Rockies have scored more runs since that time than any team in the National League.

One might be inclined to scream “Coors!” at a team that often leads the league in runs despite pronounced offensive issues, but they’ve played just two more home games than road games in this timeframe and have faced just one team (out of 11 series) with a sub .500 record.

The Rockies have been scoring runs against some of the best teams and pitchers in baseball, staking some big early leads and rallying from some sizeable deficits.

They have, objectively, been quite good as the young players have been more heavily integrated and continue to improve, especially most recently with Ryan McMahon.

Desmond has also continued to rake against lefties in particular (124 wRC+ on the season) which could not be more perfect for how Colorado is set up.

It allows Dahl and Blackmon to get much-needed rest on days when the matchup is tougher for them anyway and keeps everyone involved healthier for the long haul of a 162-game season.

The promotion and subsequent MLB debut for Rodgers has added another wrinkle to all of this and questions will remain about what is best for his development but apart from a four-game sample size being too small to reach conclusions, the fact remains that themoves they’ve been making are getting results.

They actually embraced a new philosophy, mid-season, and are adjusting in real time to fantastic effect.

At least, overall.

So what is the issue?

There are two problems that have risen to the forefront that have fans still searching to squeeze even more life out the lineup.

The first is that the starting pitching has let them down so far. If they were throwing the rock the way they did a year ago, their offensive output would be enough to have them several games above .500 and right in the thick of the race.

But the bats have actually been so proficient that they’ve managed to make the games close anyway which suggests that the major issue is situational hitting.

This is a theory that is supported by eye-test evidence and regular utterance of the phrase “they can’t find the big hit.”

Much like how almost no Fanbase in the game is ever completely happy with their own bullpen, it’s rare that one feels that their ballclub is stellar at the plate in high-leverage situations.

The odds are still very much against the hitter and “just putting the ball in play,” is a lot easier to say than it is to do.

And while they absolutely failed in this regard in Boston and Philadelphia, the Rox rank 12th in baseball with an .803 OPS with runners in scoring position.

That number is, of course, boosted a bit by the home ballpark and still could stand to improve, but at that point, it’s a nitpick that certainly can’t be attributed to the machinations of the revolving lineup.

The facts point to an offense that has been consistently good for a while now. Even when including the dreadful numbers out of the gate, the Rockies have five guys in the lineup hitting above the league average according to the harsh, park-adjusted statistics: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, and David Dahl.

Additionally, two more hitters are hovering right around league average: Ryan McMahon and Tony Wolters.

It’s a particularly punishing stat for Wolters who has hit .289 and gotten on base at a clip of .343 but doesn’t slug much at .402.

When you combine that with the resurgence of Desmond and the potential of Rodgers, you have a lineup that is both top-heavy and deep.

The two big exceptions, though, have been the veterans at first base, Daniel Murphy and Mark Reynolds. The former has been hurt and the latter forced into a bit more playing time than was ever intended but despite them each having had their moments, it may be close to time to explore other options if they don’t pick it up in a hurry.

You could also argue to include Iannetta but almost nobody in baseball has a backup catcher who hits at or above league average and that is more a reminder that the decision-makers made another adjustment in giving the majority of the starts behind the plate to Wolters.

But that’s a grand total of three hitters who are truly struggling, one of which (Murphy) has a resume that strongly suggests they will not continue.

What this all really highlights is that the elephant in the room is one Colorado didn’t think they would have to face this season; the pitching. And specifically the starting pitching.

And in that regard, something needs to change.

But when it comes to the daily hand-wringing over the regular and admittedly at times odd manipulations of the lineup, don’t you think it’s worth stopping for a moment to recognize that it is quite clearly working?