Why the Denver Nuggets should trade Danilo Gallinari, other musings

 

Now is the Time to Trade Gallo

The trading game in the NBA is an interesting one. By the time a team begins to ponder that a player might be on the downside of his career and has even the slightest inkling to trade him, it’s too late. That’s not to say the player cannot be moved at all, but it’s too late to get maximum return. The psychology of this is really tricky. When a player is performing well and entering the prime of his career the last thing most GM’s want to do is move said player. And if the team is a legitimate playoff club that could insert itself into the mix for a title, this is a sound strategy. However, when a team is rebuilding as the Denver Nuggets are, it’s a different matter.

That’s why the Denver Nuggets should look to trade Danilo Gallinari… now. January has been without question the most prolific offensive month of his career. He has carried the Nuggets’ offense on his back on numerous occasions. While Will Barton has no doubt had a spectacular season, when the Nuggets’ offense bogs down in the half court Gallo has been the only player capable of bailing the team out. Barton does much more of his damage in transition or in the secondary break. Nevertheless, Gallo has been the closest thing the Nuggets have had this season to “the man,” and that’s why the time to try and trade him is this February.

Don’t misunderstand. I’m certainly not saying the Nuggets have to trade Gallo, but rather, they should push hard to see what they can get for him. If the right deal doesn’t surface, the team loses nothing by keeping him in Denver. That said, given Gallo’s history of injury and the rate at which players start to drop off around 30 years of age, now is the time to strike. Even next year at this time may be a little too late. Gallo’s great play this season, especially over the course of the last month, could make certain GM’s temporarily forget about his injury history.

Given his relatively high salary (and 15 percent trade kicker) it’s unlikely the Nuggets can trade him solely for draft picks at February’s deadline as not many teams are under the league’s salary cap by enough money to inherit his $14-million salary and thus would have to send players under contract in return. That fact actually adds ammunition to the argument that if the Nuggets are going to trade Gallo they should at least wait until this summer when the salary cap will increase at an unprecedented level, and as a result, many teams would then have the ability to inherit his salary outright with the Nuggets able to take back a potential bevvy of draft picks in return. Of course, the risk to that strategy is that Gallo is just one relatively severe injury away from having his value plummet again.

If this Nuggets’ front office has proven anything, it’s that they can hit on draft picks even if they aren’t necessarily lottery picks. Moreover, Denver’s European scouting has proven to be among the best in the Association. If the Nuggets could move Gallo for multiple picks, that would seem to play absolutely to the major strength of this front office.

For most fans, I would anticipate a Gallo trade that didn’t land another name player to be met with skepticism, and at worst, maybe even contempt. I understand why, too, given the franchise’s fall from grace over the last couple of seasons. That said, we’re seeing what happens when this version of Gallo, which mind you is a very good one, is the best player on a team. It’s a team that will likely get a lottery pick in the low teens, or if everything breaks right, perhaps an eight-seed in the postseason. By the time the Nuggets would be able to build a team around Gallo good enough that he would be the third best offensive player on it, he would be past his prime and on the downside. Said differently, the Nuggets would find themselves in the very conundrum I outlined at the start of the piece.

It’s time to try and strike why the iron is hot and see if Gallo can land Denver’s front office additional picks to draft the next versions of Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, or Gary Harris.

What the Ascent of Arturas Karnisovas Says About Tim Connelly

It was reported earlier this month that Nuggets’ assistant GM Arturas Karnisovas is a candidate for the recently vacated GM position in Brooklyn after the reassigning of Billy King. Given the Nuggets’ success as noted earlier in scouting talent abroad, this shouldn’t surprise anyone. What did catch me a bit off guard, though, was the panic this potentiality instilled in some Nuggets’ fans.

Part of the job of a GM, which now can be demarcated by a whole array of titles other than general manager, is to hire a great staff. Denver GM Tim Connelly recently signed a contract extension. Presumably one of the reasons why is because he has hired people like Karnisovas. While it is never fun to potentially lose someone on your staff, the fact another team for a higher-ranking position is pursuing someone Connelly hired speaks to Connelly’s ability to identify and secure the right people. If you believe Connelly is the right guy, you have to trust in his ability to find the next Karnisovas, who, by the way, was a guy most every NBA fan had not even heard of prior to his time in Denver.

Now, if you believe Karnisovas’ loss would be crippling, it stands to reason that you also believe that Connelly should not have been extended and that Karnisovas should have been given the top job instead. If that’s your belief, fair enough. Perhaps Connelly just hired Karnisovas and got lucky. Or, perhaps he knows how to identify quality people that can give the Nuggets a unique long-term edge they likely need to compete in an environment where they are unlikely to do appreciable damage on the free agent market. Given the fact the Nuggets extended Connelly, it seems fairly obvious to me where Josh Kroenke stands on this.

The Growth of Gary Harris

In this age of social media where a rookie in the NBA can be pronounced the second-coming and a bust within the timespan of a single two and a half hour basketball game, perhaps I’m in the minority in what I’m about discuss. That said, one of my favorite parts of watching professional sports, and the NBA in particular, is observing how players develop over time. Last season Gary Harris was one of those players left for dead by the “what have you done for me lately” crowd. Watching the way in which he has improved this season has been particularly satisfying for those fans, who like myself, see basketball as more of a fine wine than a basket of potato skins at TGI Friday’s.

It was proclaimed last season that Harris just couldn’t shoot, and certainly he struggled chucking the rock last season in the limited attempts he was afforded. In much the same fashion that fans in an illusory way will often still see a great player well past his prime as the same player he was years earlier, a mistaken assumption is also made about rookies who struggle early in their careers. Because a player cannot or is not doing something now doesn’t mean he will never do it. Yet, time and again and with increasing frequency fans and media do this to young players in the modern NBA.

The book on Harris was always that he could defend. He’s continuing to demonstrate that this season often guarding the other team’s most talented perimeter offensive player. His seemingly instinctual ability to pick the pocket of ball-handlers or get in the passing lanes has been on full display. The biggest question mark was whether or not Harris could be a legitimate two-way guard. His confident shooting and slashing this season has started to shed some light on this question, and Nuggets fans have to like the beginning stages of the answer. As Nuggets’ commentator Scott Hastings astutely points out often on the telecasts, Harris has been moving exceptionally well without the basketball this season. People talk about the lost art of the mid-range jumper, and there is some truth to that, but moving without the basketball in the era of ball-dominant guards seems more on the verge of extinction.

If you believe Emmanuel Mudiay is the future of the franchise, this has to make you even more excited about Harris. Given Mudiay’s great vision, Harris is the perfect complement since he is always on the move without the ball offensively outside of the direct context of the offense. On defensive side, Harris has shown he can guard some quicker combo/lead guards. This frees up Mudiay, with his substantial size for a point guard, to cover particular two-guards for which he is a better matchup.

It’s amazing what a coaching staff can do for a player’s psyche. Harris was left for dead in the deep recesses of former head coach Brian Shaw’s doghouse a season ago. This season I have heard Michael Malone publicly reference Harris as one of the team’s best shooters multiple times. On all of these occasions I’ve thought this to be a great psychological move by Malone. One of my great mentors once told me, “Be careful of the stories you tell about yourself and others tell about you because eventually they will live you.” This has certainly proven to be the case for Harris this season.