Why the Broncos need to target Noah Fant 100 times in 2020

It’s possible that no one — not even Drew Lock — will gain more from Pat Shurmur’s arrival as Broncos offensive coordinator than tight end Noah Fant.

Shurmur said the Giants had a “really, really high opinion” of Fant heading into last year’s draft. But they didn’t need to select a tight end in the first round, not with 2017 first-rounder Evan Engram on the roster.

Still, the example of Engram with Shurmur illuminates how Fant can be maximized and what the Broncos should expect this year.

Injuries limited Engram to 19 games over the two seasons Shurmur coached with the Giants. But in those games, Engram was targeted 132 times, catching 89 passes for 1,044 yards and six touchdowns. Prorated over 16 games, that would translate to 111 targets, 75 receptions, 879 yards and five touchdowns.

For a tight end, that is Pro Bowl-level production.

Fant wasn’t at that level last year. But despite a flurry of early- and midseason dropped passes, overall offensive inefficiency and a carousel of three starting quarterbacks, Fant’s rookie-season performance as a pass catcher placed him among elite company for rookie tight ends.

By the end of the 2019 season, Fant was the first rookie or first-year tight end in 24 years — and just the fifth all-time — to have at least 40 receptions, 500 yards and an average of 14 yards per catch.

Engram has never had a season like Fant did in terms of yardage per reception. Fant averaged 14.1 yards per catch in 2019. Engram’s career average is 11.5 yards per catch; with Shurmur, it was 11.7.

A significant part of that is Fant’s rate of catches of 30 or more yards — one every eight receptions. Engram averages one catch of 30-plus yards every 13.9 receptions — although his rate was higher with Shurmur, with one every 9.9 catches.

“Very similar type of players,” Shurmur said. “Yes, [Fant] is primarily a pass receiver with what you’re looking for as a tight end, but quite frankly he was a pretty gritty blocker when he was asked to do so last year.”

Engram has the edge in vertical speed — 4.42 seconds in the 40-yard dash, as timed at the 2017 Combine. But Fant’s speed is also elite for his position — 4.50 seconds — and he has a 15-pound size advantage on Engram.

Some improvement could have been expected from Fant even before Shurmur’s hire. The 28 first- and second-round tight ends in the last 30 years who had at least 30 receptions as rookies averaged 9 more catches, 118 more yards and one more touchdown per 16 games than they did as rookies, per research on pro-football-reference.com.

But based on how Shurmur maximized Engram, much more should be expected. Consider this: Engram caught 55.6 percent of the passes thrown in his direction as a rookie. In the two years that followed with Shurmur, that percentage spiked to 67.4.

As a rookie, Fant caught 60.6 percent of the passes thrown his way. But that percentage was 71.4 in the final five games of the season with Drew Lock starting.

A season in which Fant is targeted 100 times should end with him catching 66 to 70 passes for 900 to 980 yards and him being the No. 2 receiving threat in the offense behind Courtland Sutton.

With Shurmur, Engram was very good.

With Shurmur, Fant can — and should — be better.