Why the Broncos need to risk everything to draft Kyler Murray

What if I told you that you could draft Michael Vick all over again, but this time he has sniper-like accuracy?

Well, you can in 2019.

Say hello Kyler Murray, the ultra-athletic, MLB first-round pick, Heisman-Trophy-winning quarterback that, on Monday, made his professional intentions crystal clear.

“Moving forward, I am firmly and fully committing my life and time to becoming an NFL quarterback,” Murray said in a statement released on social media. “Football has been my love and passion my entire life. I was raised to play QB, and I very much look forward to dedicating 100% of myself to being the best QB possible and winning NFL championships. I have started an extensive training program to further prepare myself for upcoming NFL workouts and interviews. I eagerly await the opportunity to continue to prove to NFL decision makers that I am the franchise QB in this draft.”

And with that, my last standing concern about Kyler Murray was gone.

Yes, Murray stands right around 5-foot-10, which will instantly make him one of the shortest NFL quarterbacks of all time, but riddle me this—has there ever been a quarterback to come into the NFL that checked all of the boxes other than height and failed?

Good luck.

In fact, history tells us that guys like this have a fantastic chance of success in the NFL. So much success that size concerns have, in large part, stopped impacting draft position for quarterbacks.

One of the first true undersized, mobile quarterbacks was Fran Tarkenton (6-foot). Tarkenton went on to be a nine-time Pro Bowler and an NFL MVP while throwing for over 47,000 yards and rushing for over 3,500 yards in his career.

Even Doug Flutie (5-foot-10), who may be one of the least successful names in this category, went on to prove a small guy can win in the NFL. While he bounced around from the USFL to the NFL to the CFL early in his career, the diminutive QB eventually made a Pro Bowl in 1998. He finished his 13-year NFL career with a .575 winning percentage as a starter. That includes a 21-9 stretch over three years in Buffalo.

There was the aforementioned Michael Vick, who people forget also stood at six-feet-flat. Vick took the league by storm with his incredible speed and athleticism to go along with a cannon of an arm. A four-time Pro-Bowler who may have been so much more had he not lost two years of his prime in federal prison.

More recently, of course, you have the likes of Drew Brees (6-foot) and Russell Wilson (5-foot-11), who seem to have completely debunked the height-as-a-predictor-of-success theory. Both Brees and Wilson have reached the ultimate pinnacle of success as Super Bowl champions, with Wilson being the shortest QB to get a ring. It’s that success, especially that of Wilson, that helped pave the way for Baker Mayfield (6-foot) to be drafted first overall in 2018, a huge victory for undersized QBs everywhere.

With Mayfield’s success as a first-year starter, you now have three “undersized” franchise quarterbacks in the NFL, with two being considered top-five players at the position.

“I used to think [quarterback size mattered], until I saw Drew Brees twice a year in Tampa, then I met Russell Wilson coming out of N.C. State,” said Raiders coach Jon Gruden at the Senior Bowl in January. “Now I’m watching this kid, Murray, coming out of Oklahoma and I’m putting away all the prototypes I once had. I used to have a prototype for hand size, height, arm strength, all that stuff… We’re looking for guys who can play. They come in all shapes and sizes.”

Bingo.

Not only can Kyler Murray play, he’s a flat-out baller. He’s got the speed of Vick with the accuracy of Mayfield, and it’s the second part that makes him a cant-miss prospect in my mind. The former baseball player throws strikes at an extremely consistent rate. His ball placement is on another level when it comes to the 2019 class. It’s far and away his most NFL-ready trait, the one that will have NFL GMs really thinking on how much they care about size.

Back in 2014, Albert Breer wrote a story for NFL.com  in which Steve Sarkisian recalled what legendary head coach/GM Bill Walsh, told him about identifying franchise quarterbacks. It’s stuck with me ever since.

“Everyone goes to the Combine, they tell me how tall he is, they tell me how much he weighs, they tell me how big his hands are, how long his arms are,” Sarkisian remembered of Walsh’s message. “They tell me how high he jumps and how fast he runs. I go into these meetings with our scouts, and they tell me how strong his arm is, they tell me about the offense they had. All I want to know is, when he throws the ball, does he throw it where the receivers catch it?”

Walsh would have liked what Kyler Murray puts on tape. The Heisman winner looks like he’s playing a casual game of darts out there.

Murray boasted a 69-percent completion percentage this year at Oklahoma, just barely under the 70.5 clip his predecessor, Mayfield, posted behind him. His slight frame isn’t noticeable as he’s ripping it from the opposite hash to the sideline on the money or dropping it in the breadbasket 50 yards down the field on the run.

That alone makes him a first-round prospect without factoring in his speed. And it’s not just regular speed. My eyes tell me he’s the quickest quarterback I’ve ever seen. Vick or Lamar Jackson may have him in a straight-line race, but in close quarters Murray is as quick and shifty as they come at any position. Because of that, he’s extremely difficult to square up, mitigating some of the injury concerns for a small-bodied quarterback. Most defenders are happy to grab a shoestring as he’s flying by, rather than looking to lay the hit stick on him.

Mix all of this together, and you have a prospect unlike really any other before him. A rare mix of arm talent and athleticism that would make him a consensus No. 1 pick if it weren’t for that pesky measuring tape.

That’s why there isn’t a player in the 2019 draft with a ceiling as high as Murray’s, and that’s why the Denver Broncos need to do whatever it takes to get him in Orange & Blue.

Whether you like it or not, for the next decade-plus the Broncos are going to have to deal with 2019 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes because the Chiefs took a gamble on upside and hit. And whether you like it or not, every move Denver makes has to be made with Mahomes in mind. Yes, that means they need to maintain a stout defense, but it also means they need a dynamic playmaker under center. At his ceiling, that’s exactly what Kyler Murray is, a guy who can win from the pocket, but also a guy who can make something out of nothing and frustrate defenses to no end.

Staying in the division, to make things even worse, take another look at that quote from Jon Gruden about Murray from earlier. Gruden is, at the very least, intrigued by the Oklahoma product and he most certainly is going to need some excitement around his team as they prepare to make the move to Vegas in 2020. If this kid is who I think he is, the worst-case scenario for the Broncos would be having to face Mahomes and Murray four times a season into the 2030s.

The Broncos have to do whatever it takes to stop that from happening and get the best quarterback in this draft on their side. Whether that means sending two first-round picks and change to the San Francisco 49ers to jump the Raiders at four, or whether it means putting together a package like the Rams (two firsts, two seconds and two thirds) and Eagles (two firsts, a second, a third and a fourth) put together in 2016 to secure the No. 1 and No. 2 picks respectively.

It would be a legacy-defining move to make for John Elway, but the rewards far outweigh the risks.

There’s no need to overthink this because of height. Talents like Kyler Murray don’t come around often.