Why the Broncos need to pick up Brandon McManus' option

DENVER — By March 17, the Broncos must decide whether to exercise their option on the last year of Brandon McManus’ contract.

His salary is $3 million — which matches the savings for the Broncos if they choose not to exercise the option. His cap figure, which incorporates the prorated part of his signing bonus, is $4.25 million.

According to OvertheCap.com, McManus’ cap figure for the 2020 season ranks fifth among kickers, behind Baltimore’s Justin Tucker, San Francisco’s Robbie Gould, New England’s Stephen Gostkowski and the Panthers’ Graham Gano.

Among the 42 kickers with at least 40 field-goal attempts in the last five seasons, McManus’ success percentage of 83.5 — a figure that includes his perfect form in the Broncos’ playoff run to Super Bowl 50 — ranks 21st.

When taking into account field-goal attempts from 30 or more yards, McManus’ success ratio of 79.9 percent also ranks 21st among 42 kickers with at least 30 attempts.

On field goals since 2015, McManus is the textbook example of the average kicker.

Where McManus deviates from average is in his success rates in close-and-late situations — specifically when the Broncos are tied or trail by zero to three points in the fourth quarter or overtime. These are the occasions where a swing of McManus’ foot can put the Broncos in front or even the score. In these scenarios, McManus has hit 73.6 percent of all of his attempts — and 71.4 from 30 or more yards, just below the league averages.

Average in the large-sample-size aggregate, a bit below average in the small-sample-size clutch.

But as the Broncos look at their decision on McManus, they must evaluate the alternatives. And if the determining factor in their calculus is to save cap space, they would likely turn to a young kicker, perhaps a rookie or a veteran of past preseasons in his first regular-season work.

And that should give the Broncos pause.

Because here’s how first-year and rookie kickers in the last five seasons compare with McManus and the league averages:

FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE:

• All kickers: 84.0
• McManus: 83.5
• Rookie- and first-year kickers: 80.9

FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE FROM 30 OR MORE YARDS:

• All kickers: 79.6
• McManus: 79.8
• Rookie- and first-year kickers: 76.7

FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE, FOURTH QUARTER AND OVERTIME, TEAM TIED OR TRAILING BY 1-3 POINTS:

• All kickers: 78.6
• McManus: 73.9
• Rookie- and first-year kickers: 68.0

FIELD-GOAL PERCENTAGE FROM 30 OR MORE YARDS, FOURTH QUARTER AND OVERTIME, TEAM TIED OR TRAILING BY 1-3 POINTS:

• All kickers: 75.3
• McManus: 71.4
• Rookie- and first-year kickers: 66.2

Where the comparison does not favor McManus is from 40 or more yards. In the late-game scenario mentioned above, McManus is 6-of-12 in the last five years from that distance. It’s a small sample size, but it’s below the league average of 66.4 and the rookie/first-year rate of 59.6.

However, over the broader sample size, the variance of rookie and first-year kickers can prove costly if a team chooses poorly. On the positive side, you could end up with Harrison Butker, who hit 88.4 percent of his 43 attempts in his 2017 rookie season for the Chiefs, including 77.8 percent from 40 or more yards.

But you could also get Roberto Aguayo, who was a disastrous 4-of-11 (36.4 percent) from 40 or more yards. Eight of 19 rookie and first-year kickers in the last five seasons failed to hit at least 75 percent of their field-goal attempts from 30 or more yards. Nine of the 19 failed to hit the league average in extra-point success rate (94.0 percent); McManus hit 98.1 percent of his extra-point tries in the last four seasons.

Yes, you can save cap space. But you could also end up with the dud.

John Elway knows about this, even though few of his players and none of his coaches were around in 2014, when his team swooped and dove on the roller-coaster ride with a first-year kicker —- McManus himself. He replaced Matt Prater that year, with a four-game fill-in audition for the suspended incumbent becoming the full-time gig when the Broncos released Prater after he served his punishment for a violation of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy.

McManus’ frustration hit its apex with 8:06 left in the third quarter of a Nov. 23, 2014 win over the Miami Dolphins. Trailing 21-17, McManus sliced a 33-yard field-goal attempt into the right upright. Boos from the home fans showered McManus.

“This is becoming a problem here in Denver. There is no confidence in the kicker,” CBS play-by-play announcer Jim Nantz intoned.

The broadcast’s cameras revealed the team’s loss of confidence. Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas slammed his helmet against the bench in frustration. Starting guard Manny Ramirez yelled, “Come on!” with an anguished countenance.

Elway and then-coach John Fox signed veteran Connor Barth, who hit 17 of his 18 attempts in the next six games. McManus was demoted to the practice squad, later to be reinstated to the active roster for kickoff duty because Barth’s accuracy was not complemented with adequate leg strength.

But a year later, McManus was ready for the role. He regained the confidence of his teammates.

With more projected salary-cap space than all but six teams heading into the new league year, there is no prudent reason to save space by rolling the dice on a first-year kicker. Not now, anyhow. A team that will still need to win games at the margins needs a steady foot.

A league-average kicker with a top-25-percent cap figure for his position may not seem to be the most prudent use of salary-cap resources. But given the alternative, the Broncos have just one prudent choice: They must bring McManus back for 2020.