Why Michael Porter Jr. will be the Nuggets' X-factor in the playoffs

Heading into the NBA’s restart on June 30, the DNVR Nuggets crew is looking back on the Denver Nuggets’ season, where each player left off, a target stat that every player should shoot for, and one half-court heave or bold prediction for everyone on the Nuggets’ roster.

Where Michael Porter Jr. left off

You probably remember where you were on January 2, 2020. I certainly do.

The setting was Bankers Life Field House. The opponent was the Indiana Pacers. Four days earlier Michael Porter Jr. made his first career start.

Nuggets fans were hungry for an encore.

Porter gave it to them. The rookie came off the bench to score a career-high 25 points on 11 of 12 shooting in only 23 minutes, leading the Nuggets to a hard-fought 124-116 road win.

It was the peak of Porter’s rookie campaign. He only reached the 20-point mark on one other occasion over the Nuggets’ next 31 games prior to the NBA’s hiatus partly due to a right ankle injury that stalled Porter’s strong January and forced him to miss six-straight contests prior to the All-Star game. When he returned to floor, Porter wasn’t himself. He logged over 20 minutes per game just once during the next nine games he appeared in before the March 11 shutdown.

The skill-set that Porter displayed throughout his rookie season was undeniable. His jump shot? Deadly. Porter has converted on 42% of his 3-pointers this season, the best percentage of all rookies who played more than 500 minutes and second-best mark on the Nuggets behind Paul Millsap. His efficiency as a scorer? Elite. Porter currently holds the highest True Shooting Percentage out of all Nuggets perimeter players. What about his rebounding? Porter has the best Rebound Percentage in the NBA out of all small forwards this season. Not all rookie small forwards. All small forwards.

It’s not uncommon for rookies to struggle defensively, and that’s exactly what Porter has done on that end of the floor. It’s mainly why he failed to garner significant minutes throughout the duration of the regular season. While it’s my belief that Porter’s length and feel for the game will eventually translate into him becoming an average to above average defender, his inconsistencies on defense make his postseason role more uncertain. We know the same defensive errors that he made in the regular season won’t fly with Michael Malone in a playoff environment.

“You’re not going to win a championship unless you defend at a high level,” Malone said Thursday.

Porter’s role in a playoff setting is THE single most captivating storyline for the Nuggets over the next several weeks because when Porter is in rhythm, there’s no stopping Denver’s offensive attack. Yes, defenses can still focus all of their attention on Jokic and shade towards Jamal Murray enough to force the Nuggets’ other role players to beat them from the perimeter. It’s what San Antonio and Portland did so effectively in the playoffs last season.

But when he’s locked in, Porter can make defenses pay to a different degree than the rest of Denver’s other role players. When he’s on, Porter raises the Nuggets’ ceiling higher than Millsap, Gary Harris, Will Barton, or Jerami Grant do when they’re getting heavy minutes. For Denver to reach its full potential this playoffs you feel like Porter will have to play a significant role mainly because the Nuggets are so much more difficult to game plan for with him in the lineup.

Throughout the last few months, I heard chatter about just how good Porter was looking in workouts both in Denver and back home in Missouri even though the 22-year-old revealed this week that he suffered a left ankle injury during the hiatus that he’s now recovered from. And in his first scrimmage action inside the Disney World bubble Porter didn’t disappoint, finishing with 19 points on a clean 8 of 13 shooting in just 20 minutes.

You have to love the mindset Porter arrived in Orlando with too.

“I feel like I’m in a great head space,” Porter said. I know we’ve got a lot of good players. But my goal right now, I’m not coming in here just trying to blend in with the team. I’m trying to do my part to help this team win a championship. And I think I can be a big part of that. I’m not coming in trying to be timid. I’m coming to try and be one of those guys to help us win a championship. That’s kind of my mindset right now.”

During the first few months of Porter’s rookie season he did the opposite. At times he played timid and looked scared to make the mistakes that would put him back on the bench.

Now, Porter’s pledging to play free. He’s going to play his game. We’ll see if that translates to more consistent minutes because if Porter’s playing a significant role in the playoffs, the Nuggets are a much more difficult out.

Target Stat

At least 20 minutes per game

In the 14 games where Porter played 20 minutes or more, he averaged 15 points per game. The Nuggets also went 11-3 in those games. If Porter can hold it together defensively there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be playing at least 20 minutes per game.

Half-Court Heave

Porter ends the playoffs as the Nuggets’ starting small forward

For Denver to get to the point where it’s starting Porter at small forward the Nuggets would have either endured an injury to starter Will Barton or catapulted Porter into a starting role to try and flip the momentum of the series. Well, Barton has already been banged up inside the bubble and only played in 18 minutes in the Nuggets’ final scrimmage, the only scrimmage that he appeared in. Barton didn’t look great in those 18 minutes either and scored just three points on 1 of 5 shooting.

I’m not going to count Barton out. That would obviously be foolish when Denver hasn’t even played in a seeding game yet. Plus, Barton had an incredible year for the Nuggets this season and hit career-highs in 3-point percentage and rebounding.

Denver will likely need a steady a contribution from Barton to advance deep in the playoffs, but if the Nuggets need to make an in-series adjustment for any reason, Michael Malone has a couple of options. He surely goes to Torrey Craig for defensive purposes, but Porter is the clear option if Denver’s offense is lacking creativity at any point in the postseason.