Why Hall is Taylor-made for Colorado

Okay, so you clicked on the story. You’re at least interested in what I have to say about the potential of Taylor Hall coming to Colorado.

Was it a hate click or are you genuinely intrigued by the possibility of Hall to the Avalanche?

As we face the open of free agency this week, we’re living in the most unpredictable NHL offseason in recent history. The unexpected flat salary cap has put a number of teams in a bind as just 17 teams have more than $10M in cap space to work with, and that’s before most teams have done the heavy lifting on signing their own RFAs.

One of the teams is Colorado, which currently has $22.3M in cap space to play with. It sounds like a lot but it’s a deceptively large number. The Avs need to find new contracts right away for regulars Andre Burakovsky, Nikita Zadorov, Tyson Jost, Valeri Nichushkin and Ryan Graves.

Those five players alone should chew up somewhere around $15M in space. That’s just a rough estimate and could fluctuate based on how many years their new contracts end up being. They also could be players on the trade block there is a ton of smoke surrounding Zadorov and Jost right now.

Either way, when free agency finally opens up, the top forward available will be Taylor Hall. The winger who controversially won the Hart Trophy over Nathan MacKinnon back in 2017-18 is free to test the waters.

Those waters, unfortunately for him, aren’t as flush with green as he was initially expecting. Furthermore, it has been said recently that he’d be open to a short-term contract. If that’s true, that brings the Avalanche legitimately into play for Hall’s services.

I know some people hate it. I’ve long been on the fence about it but I’ve finally decided where I am on it: Hall is a perfect fit in Colorado (with one major caveat) and he would be wise to prioritize a deal with the Avalanche on Friday morning.

Why?

I’m glad you asked.

Attitude problems

Let’s start right here. I remember a few years ago I started talking about the Avs and how they should pursue Evander Kane. This was met with significant pushback from the Avs primarily because of Kane’s reputation in the locker room.

I did some actual research and talked with multiple people around the league, from reporters who had covered him to scouts and some front office people I’m friendly with. The dominant response? Kane was actually fine, there was just friction with one or two specific players that blew up into problems and he did some immature things early in his career (Never forget the “money phone”). Since landing in San Jose, all of those conversations surrounding Kane have disappeared.

I’ve taken similar steps with Hall. The response hasn’t been as rosy as it was when I did background on Kane but the perception I got was that Hall certainly wasn’t perfect but to classify him as a “locker room cancer” was far too strong.

When I tried to scour the internet for anything concrete (the Reddit thread titled “Is Taylor Hall Really A Mega Douche?” does not qualify), the only thing that popped was a story about some off-the-cuff remarks Georges Laraque made on the radio about Hall going to rehab the summer he was traded out of Edmonton.

As far as I could tell, nobody ever confirmed the story and it just floated out there on its own. Hall did address his own behavioral issues in Edmonton, however, saying the system of accountability wasn’t in place to keep his head on straight and it impacted him. When you’re a teenager and billed as the savior of a franchise in a market as hockey-mad as Edmonton, that’s a lot of pressure. By his own admission, he didn’t handle it well. Fair enough.

But since then?

Nothing out of New Jersey or Arizona has suggested the issues he had in Edmonton followed him, publicly or behind the scenes.

When considering his fit in Colorado, you look at the situation he would be walking into and there’s plenty of reason to believe his head would be on straight.

For one, this is a group now driven by the yin-yang leadership group headed by Gabe Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon. Landeskog is the heart, MacKinnon is the roar that Godzilla makes before he spits fire on his enemies. They make it work.

With those two in place, there’s no pressure on Hall to come in and be a dominant personality in the locker room. There’s already a vibe in that room and all Hall has to do is find a way to fit in for the first time in his career.

Lack of pressure

Continuing on that theme, Hall coming to Colorado would position him to be as insulated as he ever has been since getting to the NHL. Hall wouldn’t be the face of the franchise, a savior, or anything of that. He would simply have to be himself.

Colorado would certainly have high expectations for themselves as a group and for Hall to produce at a high level. That comes with the territory. Those expectations are going to follow Hall no matter where he lands.

If he ends up in Colorado, however, the Avalanche can provide him with the cushiest situation both on and off the ice that he’s ever had in his career.

Off the ice, he wouldn’t be the focal point of media attention beyond the first few days of training camp. Once the regular season got rolling and everyone settled into their rhythm, Hall could carry on as just one of the guys, not as one of the guys expected to hold court and explain ever success and failure the franchise experiences.

On the ice, he would either be riding as the third player next to Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, giving the Avalanche a true superteam feel on the first line, or he’d combine with Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky to make that the league’s most dangerous second line outside of Toronto.

Hall’s fleet-footed and bruising style has eased up a bit in recent years but he stills plays fast and will throw the body when needed. He won’t confuse you for a power forward but there is power in his game when he wants there to be. Which brings us to our next point of contention.

Effort

“Okay, AJ, where was he during Colorado’s series against Arizona?”

Yeah, fair enough.

He was a no-show during that series, as were all of Arizona’s skaters. In his career, Hall has 12 points in 14 games, including six in the nine he played for the Coyotes this past year.

That’s fine production in not very much experience, especially given his teams were the underdogs in all three series he’s played in.

But where is the shift-to-shift consistency?

This is the area that by far bothers me the most. When Hall isn’t going 100%, he can struggle to make an impact on the game. The hope is that in Colorado, the “no passengers” message from Jared Bednar would resonate on a daily basis.

When Hall is locked in, there are very few wings in the league who can keep up with him. One area that has held Hall back, however, is the injury bug.

Injury issues

The last thing this Avs team is another fragile guy coming in to try to score a few points and then getting himself tossed on IR.

One of the conversations frequently surrounding Hall is his health. When looking at, two things emerge as true: Hall suffered a lot of injuries early in his career and his career has been a tail of two careers.

Hall’s first five seasons: 299 GP, 106 G, 157 A, 263 Pts
Hall’s last five seasons: 328 GP, 112 G, 188 A, 300 Pts

Hall would have broken 70+ games played in four of the last five years had the pandemic not stopped the season. As it is, the only significant time Hall has missed in the last five years was the knee injury that required surgery and missed all but 33 games back in 2018-19.

Fully recovered from that, Hall’s injury issues are no more significant than, say, Landeskog’s. Both players seem good to miss 5-10 games per season. That’s pretty normal stuff.

Is Hall a winner?

Nobody is born a winner. The only way people get attached with the “winner” label is to…well, you know, win.

Hall hasn’t experienced a lot of that as the scapegoat of the Oilers reboot until McDavid’s arrival. Is Hall a franchise player? I think his career has clearly dictated that answer to be no.

He simply isn’t good enough to take a franchise on its back and drag it into the postseason on a regular basis. That’s okay. This is where the situation in Colorado is yet again appealing.

Hall wouldn’t have to worry about any of that. If he signs in Colorado, he’s clearly behind MacKinnon and Rantanen on the forward pecking order and might be behind Makar as Colorado’s fourth-best player when the puck drops on next season.

All of this gets to the last, and arguably the most important aspect of this conversation: Money.

The Contract

I can already imagine several people skimmed through the first 1,500 words just to get to the part where I talked about the contract. Did you read all of this just for me to say, “Hey, good point, it’s too expensive to be realistic?”

Kind of!

But this is where the pandemic and flat salary cap could be an absolute boon for the Avalanche…and for Taylor Hall.

Before a deadly disease engulfed the world and changed our day-to-day lives, the talk was of Hall getting a standard star contract in free agency. That deal would be upwards of five years, probably more than $9M per season, and would cast Hall as once again probably the best player on his team.

That’s no longer the reality for anybody involved.

Hall, who turns 29 next month, knows he isn’t getting that payday from a team that’s also capable of competing, something he has said is more important than ever.

He’s already made north of $40 million in his career. That’s plenty of money.

The Avs can offer him a contract that’s a little below market but still fair given his track record. Let’s say $8M per year.

That’s a fair middle ground for both sides. The real kicker, however, is term. Colorado presumably has huge contract extensions for Gabe Landeskog and Cale Makar kicking in next summer.

They’ll also be incorporating a hefty wave of ELCs in the next two seasons with Martin Kaut, Shane Bowers, Alex Newhook, Bowen Byram, and Conor Timmins also likely taking permanent leaps to the NHL team. That allows them to let expiring veteran contracts leave.

The key number here is three. That’s how many years are left on MacKinnon’s now-comical $6.3 AAV contract. He’s going to get a massive raise. Everyone understands he’s realistically going to double that salary on his next contract.

That leaves Colorado with three years left to do their major moving and shaking. Take a peek at the UFA classes coming up in the next two years. Taylor Hall is it. This is the last time big UFA fish worth casting a line for that actually makes sense.

If the smoke signals coming from Hall’s camp are accurate and he is willing to go the Marian Hossa route and take a one or two-year deal, the Avs should be first in line.

Not only for all of the reasons listed above but because playing next to MacKinnon or Kadri will give him the most explosive and stable situation of his career. He will have every chance to put up the kind of numbers that will get him paid again whenever this short contract expires.

When this deal ends, Hall can go back into UFA at ages 30-32 and get a hefty multi-year deal from someone. Mats Zuccarello just got five years from Minnesota. Imagine what Hall might get after playing alongside MacKinnon for a couple seasons.

Barring an explosion in the salary cap, he’d be leaving Colorado. That’s the smart play for everyone, even if the marriage goes amazingly well. The hope is to win at least one Stanley Cup and everyone then focus on getting paid after. If it doesn’t happen, both sides will have given themselves their best shot at having their cake and eating it, too.

If all the negative things said about Hall come to fruition and it doesn’t work, the Avs aren’t stuck scrambling trying to solve a contract problem. They just simply let Hall leave. They can take a high-level shot on a short-term deal while getting better and not sacrificing future flexibility. The risk-reward conversation here just seems too tilted towards the reward.

But if they don’t even try? Neither side wins and the main benefactor is the rest of the NHL.

It’s time to call Colorado your new home, Taylor.

Just not for too long.