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Why did the Broncos give Andy Janovich a three-year contract? The answer is in the numbers

Andrew Mason Avatar
October 11, 2019

 

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — It took the arrival of Rich Scangarello as offensive coordinator to truly unlock the potential of what Andy Janovich can bring to the offense.

And it took only 34 snaps to see it.

That’s the number of offensive plays Janovich has had in two regular-season games and the preseason loss at Seattle. In between, Janovich missed six weeks because of a pectoral-muscle injury, and the Broncos added rookie Andrew Beck, a combination fullback/tight end who began his Denver days working in the backfield, but now takes his practice repetitions with the tight ends.

In those 34 plays, the Broncos averaged 7.5 yards per play, 8.8 yards per pass play and 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. The biggest reason for that per-carry average — a 50-yard Royce Freeman gallop in the second preseason game — happened because Janovich made the crushing block to spring Freeman past the second level and into Seattle’s red zone.

Even when factoring in just the 27 regular-season snaps this year, the Broncos average 1.2 more yards per carry, 2.6 more yards per pass play and 1.4 more yards per snap with Janovich than they do without him. They move the chains once every 3.4 snaps with him on the field and once every 3.5 snaps without him.

The story was different the previous three years, when the Broncos averaged fewer yards per attempt each year with Janovich than without him. Their per-pass-play pace was better — in the last two seasons, for example, the Broncos averaged 2.2 and 1.9 more yards per pass play when Janovich was on the field. But some of that is probably due to the change-of-pace effect. !he Broncos ran more than twice as often with Janovich on the field (264 snaps) as they threw (125 snaps).

So is it crazy to evaluate Janovich’s possibilities in Scangarello’s scheme based on 34 snaps? Perhaps. To say that the Broncos have a small sample size to evaluate Janovich in this scheme does an injustice to small sample sizes.

But Scangarello came from the 49ers, where he saw how effectively Kyle Jusczyk was used. No fullback last season saw more playing time.

Janovich might not be a factor for most teams. For the Broncos, he might be the best $1.9 million a year they spend over the next three seasons.

“He is a good fit,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said. He’s a good blocker. He can catch the ball when we need to call on him for that, and he can play multiple positions. He can play the second tight end, too, if we needed him to.”

Not bad for someone who hasn’t touched the football yet in this regular season.

Then, of course, there is the special-teams value, which is less about statistically-measured production and more about leadership. No unit has suffered more in recent years from the talent drain in the middle and back of the roster than special teams.

“Invaluable,” Broncos special-teams coordinator Tom McMahon said of Janovich. “His production is outstanding.”

In the past three years, coordinators Joe DeCamillis, Brock Olivo and McMahon have been left scrambling and shuffling their units to compensate for the overall instability. Janovich, when healthy, has been one of the few constants.

“He’s always the first guy in the room; he’s always the last guy to leave,” McMahon said. “So now you’ve got all these rookies that are emulating him.

“The best thing you can say about Andy Janovich is that everybody always wants to be Andy in our room. I don’t know if you can give a bigger compliment than that.”

A deal that could be worth $5.7 million over three years might seem extreme on the surface, as it makes Janovich the third highest-paid fullback in the NFL.

But for the Broncos, McMahon and Scangarello, it might be the best deal the team could possibly sign.

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