Why CU is already an NCAA Tournament lock

This would have been much more fun to analyze four games ago, but here we are.

The regular season is over and maybe the drama of March will propel Colorado toward a Cinderella story.

Although the Buffaloes are entering the Pac-12 tournament on a four-game losing skid, they are still 21-10 and are sitting pretty in all the major rankings, including No. 23 in NET, No. 32 in KenPom, and No. 13 in SOS.

Being ranked that high in so many metrics is great, but what exactly is each one?

NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET)

The NET, created to replace the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) as the selection committee’s primary ranking system, takes into account a variety of factors to determine rankings. Since the NET is the committee’s main source of information, Colorado’s status here is far more important than any other metric.

Included within the NET Rankings are:

1. Team Value Index
2. Net Efficiency
3. Winning Percentage
4. Adjusted Win Percentage
5. Scoring Margin

Let’s dive in one at a time and analyze where Colorado stands:

1. Team Value Index (TVI)

This is an algorithm that the NCAA has not completed explained publically, but it does detail a broad outline. The index is measured based on game results, including factors of the opponent, location, and winner.

The TVI is the vaguest of any factors involved in the NET Rankings, as it is a private algorithm and therefore does not display how much weight is placed on each factor.

2. Net Efficiency

Here is where the NCAA gets very deep into the math. Net Efficiency is the combination of offensive and defensive efficiency, both of which are calculated separately but similarly.

(WARNING: HEAVY MATH)

• Offensive Efficiency = (Total Points) / (Total Number of Possessions*)
  • *Total Number of Possessions = (Field Goal Attempts) – (Offensive Rebounds) + (Turnovers) +(.475 * Free Throw Attempts)
• Defensive Efficiency = (Opponents Total Points) / (Total Number of Opponent Poessesions*)
  • *Total Number of Opponent Possessions = (Opponent Field Goal Attempts) – (Opponent Offensive Rebounds) + (Opponent Turnovers) +(.475 * Opponent Free Throw Attempts)

After calculating these numbers, you simply find the difference:

• Net Efficiency = Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency

This is by far the most in-depth metric the NCAA tracks, and each statistic alone tells its own story. Per TeamRankings.com, Colorado’s offensive efficiency sits at 1.016, 113th in the country. However, its defensive efficiency sits at 24th in the country at 0.912.

3. Winning Percentage

This is one the NCAA keeps simple:

• Winning Percentage = (Wins) / (Total Games Played)

This is the easiest metric to track, as it increases or decreases easily with each game, regardless of opponent or location. Colorado has won 67.7% of its contests heading into tournament play.

4. Adjusted Win Percentage

Here, the NCAA takes factors the locations of games more heavily. Winning college basketball games on the road is a tall order, so the league wants to reward those wins accordingly.

• Road games: +1.4 for wins, -0.6 for losses
• Neutral games: +1.0 for wins, -1.0 for losses
• Home games: +0.6 for wins, -1.4 for losses

Obviously, road wins are extremely valuable, but they also hold the same weight as a home loss. Therefore, beating USC in Los Angelos does enough to counteract the home loss against Oregon State in early January, at least in this metric. Since Colorado’s win percentage is solid, its adjusted win percentage has been able to somewhat counterbalance the Buffaloes’ recent slide.

5. Scoring Margin

Here is where a team can shine with big wins and lose with big losses:

• Scoring Margin = (Team Score) – (Opponent Score)

The scoring margin is capped at 10 points in a single game. By capping the margin, this metric eliminates the blowout victories from the beginning of the season against Q4 opponents (more of this later) and helps give an accurate depiction of a team’s true ability to outscore others.

Colorado’s average scoring margin in the regular season was +7.3, good for 43rd in the nation.

*The “Quadrant System”*

The Quadrant System, while not an official metric used in determining NET Ranking, is used separately to help determine opponent strength. As strange as it is, Quadrant wins and losses help determine NET while NET determines which Quadrant a team sits in.

Essentially it places the value of wins into a four-level tier system. For example, a Quadrant 1 win is a home win over one of the 30 best teams country, as determined by the quadrant system, or a road win over one of the 75 best teams in the country.

The Quadrants are based on the NET rankings, and are as follow.

• Quadrant 1: Home #1-#30, Neutral #1-#50, Away #1-#75
• Quadrant 2: Home #31-#75, Neutral #51-#100, Away #76-#135
• Quadrant 3: Home #76-#160, Neutral #101-#200, Away #135-#240
• Quadrant 4: Home #161-#353, Neutral #201-#353, Away #241-#353

Colorado, being No. 11 in NET, clearly has a strong resume to match up with each of these five subcategories. Of their 21-10 record, half of their wins and all of their losses are either from Q1 or Q2 teams.

Colorado’s Record by Quadrant
Q1: 6-5
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0

Since NET is the primary metric used on Selection Sunday, Colorado is a lock to make the NCAA tournament regardless of how it performs in the Pac-12 Tournament.

KenPom

Here is where we get away from the NCAA-specific rankings, but other metrics that show a measure of a team.

The KenPom rankings are simply another metric that measures the strength of a team, particularly for betting purposes. The reason these rankings are so popular is because of their accuracy; sportsbooks replaced their normal rankings with KenPom after a while because of how accurate they were.

Since it is intended for betting, it is not necessary to dive into each metric but is interesting to note where it differs from NET. KenPom uses more standard statistics such as shooting percentage and strength of schedule among others.

KenPom is widely regarded as more accurate for sports betting. Without injury or suspensions in consideration, KenPom bets had more value when the point spread was in between the two metrics.

Since sports betting is not yet legal in Colorado, you may be wondering why we just spent so much time covering these two metrics. Although not directly tied to tournament selection, having a robust resume is extremely important when making a determination between a 5-seed and a 7-seed come late March.

Winning in sports betting, in its simplest terms, means picking a team that will win/cover the spread. With a fairly high ranking in KenPom, it shows Colorado is paying off betters by beating the teams they are favored to, as well as overcoming an underdog status, more times than not.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

The SOS is used to determine the strength of a team’s opponents and how the team performs against them, as it is a combination of your winning percentage and the winning percentage of your opponents.

This metric, while fairly easy to understand, is also important when comparing it to a team’s record. Obviously, the higher your SOS, the more quality opponents you have played and also the better you have performed against said quality opponents.

In a nutshell, having as high an SOS as Colorado has, including their still strong record of 21-10 heading into the tournament, means they are still a strong basketball team that has played well against quality teams.

So, where does this leave the Buffs?

According to TeamRankings.com, the Colorado Buffaloes currently have a 99.2% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They have had an incredible season and their resume speaks for itself.

Where these Buffs’ land on the bracket, however, is still up to debate. Analytically speaking, they’re projected to be between a No. 6 and 7 seed in the tournament, as of the end of regular-season play.

Colorado once sat on the four-line in most bracket projection but its four-game losing streak has tanked its standing. However, with a couple of wins in their conference tournamnet, a No. 6 seed would be most likely, pitting the Buffs against the No. 11 in two weeks and most likely taking on the No. 3 seed in the second round for a birth in the Sweet Sixteen.

While the metrics are fun to dive into, nothing speaks louder than winning in fashion. Colorado needs to ignore the noise heading into Las Vegas and focus on one game at a time, for if they can take care of business playing their brand of basketball, these metrics would not matter with an automatic bid as a conference champion.

Colorado will compete in the Pac-12 Tournament, which runs from March 11 through March 14 in Las Vegas, as the conference’s No. 6 seed.

Selection Sunday is March 15 and the first round of the NCAA Tournament begins on March 19.