Why better red-zone offense could be the key to a Broncos revival

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Something happened in Week 10 that had not happened to the Broncos since Week 5: A red-zone drive ended without points.

“It didn’t go our way [in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but prior to that, the last month or so, I think we’ve done a much better job in the red zone getting points when we’ve gotten down there,” offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. “I think that’s the important thing, it’s about points.”

Points have been hard to come by on the whole for the Broncos in the red zone this year. Their season-long touchdown percentage of 50 percent — 17 touchdowns on 34 red-zone possessions — ranks 29th in the NFL, ahead of only Detroit, Washington and the New York Giants. Even if you eliminate the kneel-down red-zone drive that ended the Broncos’ Week 2 win at Jacksonville, the Broncos would still rank just 28th.

And this is par for the course in recent Broncos history. Here’s where they rank in red-zone touchdown percentage since 2015:

• 2015: 46.2 percent, 28th
• 2016: 46.8 percent, 28th
• 2017: 39.6 percent, 32nd
• 2018: 56.8 percent, 18th
• 2019: 47.6 percent, 28th
• 2020: 53.3 percent, 27th

Shurmur and quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock didn’t start the fire, but they and their offensive teammates have struggled to fight it.

But in the four games leading up to the 30-13 loss to Philadelphia, Shurmur’s offense did improve, getting eight touchdowns from 10 red-zone trips. In Weeks 1-5, the Broncos went 8-of-19 on scoring touchdowns in the red zone; even when eliminating the afore-mentioned Week 2 kneeldown, that yields a touchdown percentage of just 44.4 percent in those first five weeks.

Then, after the four-week red-zone revival, came the Eagles game. The Broncos made a season-high five red-zone trips, matching the number they had in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Jaguars and Jets. They came up with a single touchdown, two field goals, a missed field goal and a fourth-quarter overthrow.

All the long drives in the world don’t do any good if you can’t close the deal. And while the Broncos haven’t been great in their overall per-possession metrics, they rank 17th in net yards per series, 5th in time of possession and 21st in adjusted points per possession.

Not great, yes, but not in the NFL’s lower tier, either.

“We’ve been able to drive the ball. For the people that like to crunch numbers, we’ve been way up there in terms of time of possession and moving the ball,” Shurmur said. but the devil’s in the details there; we’ve got to get it in.”

Shurmur spoke Thursday of how defenses fight back. He pointed to the Los Angeles Chargers, whose run defense ranked dead last in yards allowed per carry and per game and 30th in move-the-chains rate through 10 weeks. But in the last two weeks, Los Angeles has been fourth, third and 14th in those same metrics.

“I think we see that every week [that] defenses fight back,” Shurmur said. “In high school and college sometimes, it doesn’t appear that way [when] the scores are [really] high. It’s a challenge every week regardless of how people think teams are ranked because there are really good players on every defense.”

So, shouldn’t the Broncos’ offense have the ability for the same kind of fight-back and revival — especially in the red zone?

It should.

“Well we’ve got to just fight ‘em,” Shurmur said.. “I think every week we talk about how good the defenses are that we face, and we’ve just got to go battle. I think we’ve got some players and we’ve had spurts where we’ve done a really good job of moving the ball and scoring points.”

But those spurts need to be sustained. Otherwise, the Broncos’ hopes of a late-season revival will crash harmlessly like low-tide waves on a wide beach.