Why Aaron Gordon and Lonzo Ball would be ideal fits on the Nuggets

After a frustrating Febraury loss to the Wizards that ended with the Nuggets failing to execute a rudimentary 3-on-1 fastbreak on their final possession, Jamal Murray spoke postgame as if Tim Connelly and Denver’s front office was on the other end of his media Zoom session.

“I just thought they had too many layups. Too many layups,” Murray said alluding to the 48 points the Wizards scored in the paint that night and the 20-28 (71.4%) that Washington shot in the restricted area. “…We lack a presence in the middle that just can deter layups. I’m talking about drill layups. So that’s kind of frustrating. When you play good defense, you play good defense, and then late-shot clock they get a drive and kick, and then we don’t have a presence to go up there and challenge the shot. They just scored too easy.”

To me, that sounded like Murray asking the Nuggets to deal for a rim protector ahead of the upcoming trade deadline this Thursday at 1 p.m. MT. Since then, Denver hasn’t curtailed its issues protecting the paint either. Even though the Nuggets’ defense as a whole has been steadily climbing throughout the season and currently ranks 16th in the NBA, Denver’s rim defense hasn’t.

The Nuggets rank dead last in defending the rim this season and opponents are currently shooting a league-best 69.2% in the restricted area. If that mark holds, it will be the worst a team has defended the restricted area since at least the 1996-97 season, which is as far as NBA.com’s database goes back.

Rim defense is a two-way street. Sure, Denver lack a true rim-protecting big. But the Nuggets — with apologies to Roy Hibbert’s six-game post-trade deadline stint in Denver in 2017 — have never rostered a quintessential “rim protector” throughout the Jokic era. Denver still managed to field a top-10 defense in 2018-19 and a league-average one last season.

How much responsibility do the Nuggets’ guards and wings hold in their defensive scheme too? If Denver’s perimeter defenders kept their matchup in front of them and cut off driving lanes more regularly, that would drastically cut down on the number of opportunities opponents have for easy buckets at the rim.

I write all of this to say that despite Murray’s plea, it’s difficult (but not impossible) to see “rim protector” being atop Denver’s wish list in the lead-up to the trade deadline. You can make the case that someone like Nerlens Noel would bolster Denver’s defense, but the Nuggets have bigger needs in the form of perimeter-oriented defensive options to stop those guards and wings from entering the paint in the first place.

Aaron Gordon and Lonzo Ball are two of the biggest names that are available ahead of this Thursday’s deadline. They would help the Nuggets on the defensive end of the floor and raise Denver’s playoff ceiling. The Nuggets are interested in both.

Aaron Gordon

When Gordon became one of the top names available on the trade market, I went back and looked at some of his games this season against the types of scorers and lead ball handlers that the Nuggets could face in the playoffs. This defensive performance from January against Luka Doncic stood out.

Doncic finished with 20 points on 7-20 shooting.

Gordon would give Denver another reliable defensive option in its starting lineup. He’d also be the Nuggets’ best defensive matchup on Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and other scoring wings that could dot their playoff path. Gordon isn’t the same high-flying athlete that he was earlier in his career, but at 6-foot-9 with a strong frame, he’d give the Nuggets something they don’t currently have.

Gordon’s fit also comes down to what he wants. He’s just 25-years-old and has plenty of basketball in front of him. Even though Gordon would be best in Denver filling an Andre Iguodala-type role as a top defensive option where his offensive usage would be reduced, would he sign up for that after playing as a No. 1 option for his entire career in Orlando? Gordon is under contract for next season too, but wouldn’t put up the raw numbers in Denver behind Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. that he could post elsewhere. Would that impact his impending payday in the summer of 2020?

If Gordon prioritizes being on a winning team, Denver is a great fit. He’d get loads of easy buckets operating alongside Jokic and the opportunity to flash his defensive tools. Being in the Nuggets’ system next to Jokic can significantly boost Gordon’s league-wide perception. Gordon’s contract — he’s due $18.1 million this season and $16.4 million in 2021-22 — also lines up great with the Nuggets’ books. He’d become a free agent just as Michael Porter Jr.’s upcoming rookie extension, which he’ll be eligible to sign this coming summer, would go into effect.

The Magic’s asking price for Gordon is multiple first-round picks or a pick with a good young player, according to The Athletic. 

Adding Gordon wouldn’t guarantee Denver a championship or make the Nuggets title-favorites. But his addition undoubtedly makes the Nuggets a better and a more defensively versatile team in the playoffs. If the price is RJ Hampton and a future first-round pick plus Gary Harris or Will Barton for salary matching purposes, that seems like a move the Nuggets should make if they’re true believers in Gordon. Offloading Harris, who’s only played in 19 games so far this season due to injury AND is owed $20.2 million next season, in the deal would be a massive win.

According to league sources who spoke with DNVR over the last week, the most likely landing spots for Gordon are in Minnesota, who one source pegged as the favorite, Denver, Portland, Boston and Houston.

Lonzo Ball

When Jamal Murray has been on the floor this season with Monte Morris, the Nuggets are averaging 117.3 points per 100 possessions. When Murray is on the floor with Facu Campazzo, Denver’s Offensive Rating jumps to 118.3. On the season, the Nuggets are averaging 116.6 points per 100 possessions.

Simply put, Denver’s offense has been great all season no matter the personnel but levels up when Murray plays alongside another point guard. Murray’s February run of 20+ point games also came with him playing heavy minutes next to Campazzo.

It’s partly why Lonzo Ball’s fit in Denver alongside Murray is so intriguing. Ball’s presence in the Nuggets’ starting lineup would allow Murray to spend a ton of possessions off-ball and run off screens and separate actions to set up his offense. Ball also packs top-notch basketball instincts, a sky-high basketball IQ, and is unselfish. He fits the Nuggets’ culture in that regard.

After entering the NBA as a non-shooter, he has steadily improved from beyond the arc. Ball is shooting 38.5% from three-point range this season. He’s also averaging 7.8 attempts three-point attempts per game, which would be the most on the Nuggets.

In two-point guard looks, Ball is an ideal fit with Murray on the defensive end of the floor as well. He’s 6-foot-6 with a 6-9 wingspan and much longer than Morris, Campazzo, or Harris for that matter. With Harris sidelined for so long already this season, the Nuggets have to operate under the notion that they truly don’t know what they’ll get from him throughout the rest of the year. Ball’s defense in the playoffs will be needed.

Ball defended particularly well against Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz earlier this month. This type of perimeter presence will be much-needed in the postseason.

A potential trade package for Ball would likely include either Gary Harris or Will Barton for salary matching purposes and a young player like Bol Bol or a future pick. But I wouldn’t expect the Nuggets to go too far beyond that if a bidding war over Ball gets started considering he’ll be a free agent after this season. Even though he’ll be restricted and the Nuggets will have the ability to match any offer that Ball gets on the open market, acquiring the guard still carries some risk.