Who is most likely to trade for Emmanuel Sanders and what will the Broncos get?

*** UPDATED AFTER THE FALCONS’ TRADE OF MOHAMED SANU TO THE PATRIOTS ***

Every indication points to this being the last week for Emmanuel Sanders with the Denver Broncos.

All along, the parameters for a trade have been obvious: The Broncos need to get more in return than they would receive via the value of a compensatory draft pick if they let Sanders walk in free agency next March.

Any draft pick in the third round would guarantee that would be the case. That is more than the Broncos got for Demaryius Thomas last year, when they dealt him to the Houston Texans for a fourth-round pick and an exchange of seventh-round choices. After Thomas tore his Achilles tendon, that trade proved to be wise for the Broncos.

Sanders, even with an Achilles tear of his own just 10 months ago, should fetch more than Thomas did. Sanders’ reception, yardage and average per catch figures in his last 16 games — 82 receptions, 966 yards and 11.8 yards per catch — are all superior to Thomas’ in his final 16 games as a Bronco (76 catches, 826 yards and 10.9 yards per reception).

Further, a bidding war appears to be developing for Sanders, who becomes a free agent next spring.

Such a scenario could drive up the price for Sanders, and give the Broncos exactly what they would hope to find: a Day 2 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Falcons received a second-round pick for Mohamed Sanu, whose contract expires a year later than that of Sanders, but who also hasn’t been as productive — both historically and over the last 16 games.

A third-round pick now seems a more logical price than ever.

Where might Sanders end up if the Broncos trade him? A look at the likely contenders:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: At 6-0 and with a road win over their NFC West rivals from Los Angeles already in their back pocket, this is a team positioned to snatch the No. 1 seed and make a title run. They rank second in rushing offense, but are 25th in passing offense (although their average per pass play of 7.9 yards ranks 10th). None of their wide receivers are on pace for even 500 yards this season and they desperately need a WR1 to take the pressure off George Kittle, who continues to carry their passing game. John Elway and John Lynch have made deals before.
• Why they might not trade for Sanders: They don’t have a second-round pick in next year’s draft as a result of the offseason trade for edge rusher Dee Ford.
• Outlook: How much do the 49ers want to go for it? A trade for Sanders could take them out of the second day of the 2019 NFL Draft entirely. But they don’t want to see Sanders go to another NFC contender like New Orleans, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Seattle or Carolina, so a deal for Sanders could be as much about helping themselves as hurting the cause of their pursuers in the NFC race. In many ways, the 49ers are the best fit.
• Post-Sanu chances: 25 percent

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Why they might trade for Sanders: Have you seen Nelson Agholor lately? His short-arm attempt to haul in a deep pass from Carson Wentz, along with a key drop against Atlanta, leaves the Eagles’ pressing need for a WR1 clear. DeSean Jackson has played just two games this year because of an abdominal injury and might not make it back to 100 percent this season. The Eagles get terrific pass-catching production from tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, both of whom are matchup nightmares; together they provide an average of 81 yards per game from the tight end position.
• Why they might not trade for him: They might not be able to afford to re-sign him, given other needs on the roster. The Eagles are projected to have $40.78 million of cap space, per OvertheCap.com, but relatively few contracts can be restructured to create more space. Wentz’s cap figure jumps to $18.66 million next year; Fletcher Cox’s 2020 cap figure is nearly $4.2 million greater. The Eagles have all of their picks in Rounds 1-4 in next year’s draft, but a series of trades has depleted their late-round assets.
• Outlook: The Eagles need secondary help as well, and adding a cornerback could be the higher priority. It’s possible the Eagles could have more interest in Chris Harris Jr.; he might not be a perfect fit for coordinator Jim Schwartz’s zone-based scheme, but Harris has shown enough over the years to where he would be an asset in any scheme.
• Post-Sanu chances: 20 percent

GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: Davante Adams has now missed three consecutive games with a turf-toe injury. While Aaron Rodgers has done a good job compensating for Adams’ absence by spreading the football around to an array of targets — seven Packers have caught at least one touchdown pass this year — they lack a WR1. Wide receivers Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have also battled nagging injuries that have cost them practice time, but they have yet to miss a game so far this season.
• Why they might not trade for him: Former practice-squad receiver Allen Lazard has helped fill some of the void in the last two weeks, with seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in a pair of Packers wins over the Lions and Raiders. Valdes-Scantling bounced back from two sub-par games without Adams to draw attention with a career-high 133 yards (on two catches) against Oakland last Sunday.
• Outlook: In previous years, the Packers would have been likely to stand pat. Longtime general manager Ted Thompson largely eschewed trades and free-agent signings in favor of new contracts for homegrown players, often citing team culture. Thompson’s replacement, Brian Gutekunst, has taken the opposite approach, and the largely successful additions to the roster could empower him to add Sanders. The fact that Sanders spent his first six seasons playing with Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning would make his transition to Green Bay a smooth one; he knows all about playing with an elite quarterback like Rodgers.
• Post-Sanu chances: 15 percent

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: Drew Brees is expected back in the next few weeks — and maybe as soon as this week — but with Teddy Bridgewater, the Saints have proven that they are a title contender no matter who is at the helm. Brees turns 41 in January and the Saints are in go-for-it mode. More than half of their passing yards amassed by wide receivers have been accumulated by Michael Thomas alone; another high-level target like Sanders would make the Saints’ passing game nearly impossible to defend.
• Why they might not trade for him: The Saints have already traded their 2020 second-round pick, sending it to Miami last April as part of a trade up that netted them center Erik McCoy with the No. 48 pick.
• Outlook: The Saints have made some bold moves in recent years to try and wring one more title out of the Brees era, and this might be the one that pushes them over the top. But the lack of a second-round pick might harm the Saints’ chances if the cluster of teams drives Sanders’ price up. They need the value to remain in the third- or fourth-round range.
• Post-Sanu chances: 15 percent

CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: The Panthers have played better with a healthy Kyle Allen than an injured Cam Newton, having won four games in succession since pulling the ripcord on Newton after a Week 2 home loss to Tampa Bay. Coach Ron Rivera and general manager Marty Hurney are very much in win-now mode; both entered the season on the hot seat after last year’s 1-7 collapse following a 6-2 start. They dealt for now-retired pass rusher Jared Allen a month before the deadline in 2015, so they will make in-season trades. Sanders would take pressure off Christian McCaffrey and would give offensive coordinator Norv Turner the chance to get creative. They view themselves as a sweep of the Saints away from being in position to win the NFC South. Carolina also has its entire draft complement for the 2020 draft.
• Why they might not trade for him: Kyle Allen is due for some regression; he hasn’t thrown an interception in four starts this season. They might decide to stand pat and wait until after Sunday’s game at San Francisco; a loss would drop them to 4-3 with road trips to Green Bay and Indianapolis and a home-and-home with New Orleans yet to come.
• Outlook: This is a sneaky possibility. Hurney has made some interesting and bold trades over the years. In 2009, he traded a future first-round pick for a second-round selection. A year later, he made the same kind of pick with second- and third-round choices. If Allen is for real and the Panthers jettison Newton in the offseason, the $19.1 million in cap savings can easily go toward keeping Sanders beyond this year. Furthermore, if the rigorous schedule comes back to bite the Panthers, Carolina may represent the Broncos’ best offer if it is willing to part with a third-round pick.
• Post-Sanu chances: 15 percent

HOUSTON TEXANS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: Yet another injury to Will Fuller leaves the Texans in need of wide-receiver help. Sanders hails from Bellville, Texas, so there might be some emotional pull to sign a player from the outer fringe of the Houston television market.
• Why they might not trade for him: Houston didn’t get its desired return from Thomas last year and might have pause about adding another Bronco coming off an Achilles rupture of his own. The Texans have an extra third-round pick as a result of the Jadeveon Clowney trade, but they traded their first- and fourth-round picks next year in the Laremy Tunsil and Duke Johnson trades, respectively. One third-rounder was sent to Oakland for cornerback Gareon Conley. Houston already is without its first two picks in 2021.
• Outlook: Trading for Sanders would be a bold gambit, and the Texans might have a good chance of keeping Sanders from hitting the market. But the Texans might also be able to wait a few months and sign the local hero anyway without sacrificing any more draft capital.
• Post-Sanu chances: 5 percent

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Why they might trade for Sanders: Their offense needs another target. With tight end Will Dissly lost for the year because of a torn Achilles tendon, the Seahawks will have to lean on more three-wide receiver sets, and while D.K. Metcalf and Jaron Brown have been explosive this year, they need a move-the-chains threat with speed to complement Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have an extra second-round pick as a result of the Frank Clark trade.
• Why they might not trade for him: Is offense really the problem for Seattle right now? Until Sunday’s loss to Baltimore, they hadn’t failed to score at least 20 points; conversely, they’ve given up at least 20 points in all but one game this year, and have surrendered an average of 25.1 points so far this season. Nobody has more than two sacks on the defense.
• Outlook: Seahawks general manager John Schneider has never been shy about making a deal, but other needs might take priority — particularly tight end and all over the defense.
• Post-Sanu chances: 4 percent

FIELD

Other contenders such as Indianapolis or Buffalo could get into the mix, but if the Broncos deal Sanders, expect one of the above teams to be the successful suitors.

• Post-Sanu chances: 1 percent