Who advances if the Nuggets and Rockets meet in the first round?

Each weekday, our DNVR Nuggets crew will be tackling one question about the Nuggets season in a round table format. Members, leave the questions that you’d like to see our writers answer in the comments section below and Harrison, Adam and Brendan will address them on an upcoming episode of the DNVR Nuggets Podcast.

Who advances if the Nuggets and Rockets meet in the first round?

*If the league goes straight into the playoffs once the league returns.

Adam Mares: Rockets in six

It’s basically impossible to know half of the variables that would impact this question. Are fans allowed into the arena? Are games played on a neutral site, negating home court advantage?

Setting those questions aside, I think what the Houston Rockets do on the basketball court is much easier to figure out and get settled than what the Denver Nuggets do. Houston’s offense is basically an isolation offense with spot up shooters around the three-point line. Role players like PJ Tucker need only figure out the rhythm of their catch and shoot shooting while the lion’s share of the responsibility rests on the talent of Russell Westbrook and James Harden. There is very little timing and chemistry to sort out.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, play a much more balanced style of basketball that is more dependent on chemistry and timing. So if the league jumped right into a playoff, do-or-die series, then I think the advantage would go to the Rockets.

Brendan Vogt: Nuggets in seven 

Houston – Denver might be the most exciting first-round matchup in the entire playoff bracket. We know Houston has owned this matchup for years, but the Rockets’ decision to move on from Clint Capela and embrace an ultra-small staring lineup should impact the dynamic between these teams signfigantly. 

With several underrated and capable post defenders — namely James Harden and PJ Tucker — the Rockets are content with baiting other teams into abusing a perceived mismatch. A post up is an inherently inefficient shot in today’s game — that’s the maxim they’re building their championship hopes around anyway — and it holds across most of the league. Who is there for Rudy Gobert to guard in that 7-game series? Is he talented enough to punish the size difference on the other end? Probably not. But Denver isn’t like most teams in the league. Their best offensive player is nearly seven feet tall, and there’s no defense Nikola Jokić can’t exploit.

Jokić’s post up possessions are highly efficient, and he should eat Houston alive in a series, but it’s all theoretical. We haven’t and won’t see these teams play in the regular season since the shakeup. Jokić should dominate, but in a series with Houston, Torrey Craig will start. If the Rockets do send help at Jokić, the lion’s share of that responsibility should rest on Craig’s man. The Nuggets and Craig, in particular, will have to take and make open threes consistently to win. The Capela trade should be enough to swing the series in Denver’s favor. But I don’t love their chances, and it will take at least six games.

Harrison Wind: Nuggets in seven

The current hiatus where teams aren’t allowed to practice or venture to their team facility to workout puts everyone on an even playing field if the season was to eventually return, but could the long layoff hurt the Rockets more than most? Houston shoots the most 3-pointers in the league and relies on the triple more than any other team, and players who don’t have a basket at their home can’t shoot during the break. That means James Harden, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, Danuel House, Ben McLemore, Austin Riversm and P.J. Tucker could go several months without shooting a basketball. A multi-month layoff straight into a playoff series even if teams have a multi-week training camp could hurt a team that relies so heavily on their production from beyond the arc.

Another factor at play when diagnosing a Nuggets/Rockets matchup is that Denver and Houston haven’t faced off since Daryl Morey shipped out Clint Capela and doubled down on his small ball approach at the trade deadline. The Rockets are 11-6 since Houston began to start Tucker at center (the last game Capela played for the Rockets was Jan. 29) and have enjoyed some regular season success, but going up against a post presence like Nikola Jokic — the second-most efficient post-scorer in the league behind Joel Embiid on a points per possession basis — in a seven-game series is a different beast. Will Houston double Jokic and force Denver’s role players to make plays? That seems like it would be the Rockets’ best course of action. I’d trust Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap to make just enough shots to edge Houston out at home in Game 7.