While Nikola Jokić is overthinking it, his teammates must stick to the plan

NEW YORK CITY  –– The story of Denver’s blowout win over the New York Knicks on Thursday night was one of the second unit’s triumph, and a brief return to form for a Nuggets team that had lost consecutive games. But there’s a difference between a headline and a legitimate takeaway. While the bench did plenty right in Madison Square Garden, the reality is they did it all against a woeful Knicks team that’s stuck in a state of perpetual free-fall. The real significance of this game lies in the performance of Nikola Jokić and his transparency in the visitor’s locker room.

The nadir of this otherwise joyful game occurred in the first few minutes, as Jokić wrestled himself into an advantageous position in the post with the 6’4″ 190 lb. Frank Ntilikina stuck underneath him. Jamal Murray never even attempted an entry pass, and, not surprisingly, the possession died. Murray scored nine points in the starters’ first 8:10 seconds together, but he didn’t record an assist. He looked to get himself going as a scorer, and it this case it worked. But it came at the expense of the way this team wants to play on offense—the way they need to play—the “right way,” as Jokić calls it. Unfortunately, this has become somewhat of a familiar sight for the Nuggets faithful.

The exhilarating offense that defined the first half of the Jokić-era in Denver becomes harder to remember each passing day, slipping through the cracks of our memory like a pleasant dream from which we never wished to wake. That egalitarian offense, a seeming reflection of Jokić’s inclinations, has died. Last season in the playoffs, it was supplanted entirely by a two-man game between their two best players. It was useful, but ultimately limiting as the team grew overly reliant on them as scorers. Through 19 games of the 2019-20 campaign, that offense has been replaced by, well, not much of one at all.

Four guys have stood and watched while one goes to work. Jokić has struggled to hit shots, and grown subsequently wary of taking them altogether. Murray, who has improved significantly in his ability to get the ball to his center, looks decreasingly willing to do so as the big man labors through the first extended shooting slump of his young career. The Nuggets have stopped playing through their best player, and it’s holding them back.

The script flipped in the second quarter, however. Jokić played in just over five minutes. Still, in that small window, we saw a brief flicker of Jokić-ball, as the team went to him in the post on three consecutive possessions that resulted in three assists for the league’s best playmaker at the center position. The first ended in a corner three from Paul Millsap. The second, a layup from a cutting Millsap. The third, another three, this time from Will Barton III. Jokić hit the two shots he took in that span and was a +12 in the quarter.

Jokić has not looked to be a first-team All-NBA caliber center through 19 games. Fans have grown frustrated with his lethargic demeanor and seeming contentedness with mediocrity. While his head coach Michael Malone has had his back, he is frustrated by the endless questions surrounding his star player, questions that will inevitably continue for the duration of this trend. In the meantime, Murray looks increasingly willing to shoot, to lead vocally, and to accept the responsibilities of leadership that his pick-and-roll partner rejects. The Nuggets have stopped announcing Jokić last in the player introductions, a slot typically reserved for a team’s best player. It is Murray now whose name is met with thunderous applause as he joins the starters in one final huddle before the game.

To the casual fan who is tuning into the Nuggets for the first time, the notion that the timid Serbian is categorically the team’s best player might seem confusing. That notion is incongruent with what we are seeing on the court. But there’s no ambiguity for those who are inside the Nuggets’ locker room. The hierarchy is clear.

“Nikola is our best player,” Malone told reporters after the game. “We have to play through him—whether it’s in the high post, the elbows, and in the post. He’s so unselfish, and he has such a high IQ, he’ll find the open guy, and he did that time and time again.”

The operative buzzword in Denver over the last couple of seasons has been “continuity.” The Nuggets are benefitting from minimal turnover, and at least in theory, in a position to pick up from where they left off last season. Not every theory comes to fruition, however. While the names have stayed the same, no team’s identity is static from year-to-year, and Denver is still searching for comfort in their skin.

“Listen, man, we gotta play through him,” Will Barton III told the media after the loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night. “Every year that’s going to work for us. We are a good team when he’s not scoring, but we’re a great team when he’s dominant down there, and we have championship potential when he’s cooking, and we know that. We can get away with it some games, but to be the team we want to be, we got to play through him.”

Part of what makes Jokić unique is his ability to dominate with or without big scoring numbers. While not always the most articulate in his second language, Jokić does have a knack for succinct descriptions of what is a simple basketball philosophy:

“Depends if the defense is coming with double teams or playing straight up,” he told the media when asked about his thought process with a mismatch in the post. “If they are playing straight up, I’m going to try to score. If they double team me, I’m going to pass it out.”

Mathematical.

Malone is correct when he describes the importance and benefits of playing through the Serbian sensation. He’s going to find the open guy every time. That reality notwithstanding, the criticisms of his passivity are grounded in their own truth. Part of being the best player on a team is being willing and able to do what the defense is daring you to do, what your team needs of you—however arduous the task. Jokić isn’t ready to shoot right now, to the apparent detriment of the offense. As he continues to miss shots, or pass them up altogether, his teammates have resorted to taking matters into their own hands. The result has been an admittedly balanced approach, as Barton III, Millsap, and Murray have taken turns with the ball in their hands, willing points into existence. Balanced, sure, but not sustainable, and as Barton III pointed out, not this team’s blueprint for a title run.

“I cannot make shots,” Jokić replied when asked by the New York media why his scoring is down this season. “The ball is not going in. Maybe I’m not shooting that much, but I’m not going to shoot if it’s not going in. And the ball is just not going in.”

These comments are in a similar vein as his eye-brow raising quote from the loss to Los Angeles on Tuesday. “Right now, I’m struggling,” he admitted. “So coach, he’s a smart guy; he’s not going to give the ball to the guy who’s not making shots. I’m cool with it. I’m good.”

That doesn’t quite match up with what we’ve heard from Malone publicly. He’s been adamant about the importance of doing just that, as once again Jokić appears to be the last one to realize the problem. The ball does need to be in his hands. And he has to be willing to shoot, even if those shots aren’t falling.

“He’s just got to finish, and he will,” Barton III said on Tuesday night. “Tonight he just had a tough couple of looks that didn’t go down. With him missing right now, he’s thinking a little bit, and he’s so good he doesn’t need to think. Just go out there and play your game, and he’ll be fine.

No one’s doing nothing to him—he’s just missing, and he’s thinking too much. Once he gets out of his own head, he’ll get back to being himself.”

As Jokić overthinks it, his teammates can’t afford to do the same thing. They’ve got to keep feeding him the ball, and once they’ve done so, they can’t just stand around and wait for him to score. They’ve got to meet their big man in the middle, and play ‘the right way.’

“I think it’s just like, passing and cutting,” Jokić said when asked to elaborate on what exactly that entails. “The ball is not moving, and I think (moving the ball) is playing the right way.

“It is five people on the court. We need to work as one.”