Where the Avalanche roster currently sits and what's next

The Colorado Avalanche took to the practice ice this morning following their 3-1 loss to the Dallas Stars last night. Following the game, six players were sent to the Colorado Eagles, most notably first-round selection Martin Kaut, and Cody Bass was released from his try-out with the team.

Those moves brought the Avalanche roster to 29 players as they continue their quest to get to 23 for opening night next week against the Minnesota Wild. With that, let’s take a look at who is left and what the situations are surrounding them.

Goaltenders

Working from the back forward, Francouz being sent down today gets us to the predictable end point of Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer as Colorado’s two goaltenders. That position is set and Francouz’s strong showing in Vegas would seem to give him the leg up on the starting goaltender job for the Eagles.

Defenseman

The defense is getting closer to being set but injuries and a lack of a defined plan mean the final two games have an opportunity to help shape the roster in the next week. As of today, there are 11 defensemen still on the roster. Three, Anton Lindholm, David Warsofsky, and Conor Timmins, are injured and would not have been serious contenders for the roster anyway. That leaves the seven defenders under one-way contracts expected to make the team:

Erik Johnson
Tyson Barrie
Ian Cole
Nikita Zadorov
Patrik Nemeth
Mark Barberio
Sam Girard

Alt’s contract situation is interesting because it’s a two-way deal that would have him among the highest paid players in the AHL should he play there. It’s also a two-year deal so if Colorado decides to send him to the AHL and through the waiver process, it would take a significant commitment from another team to claim him. The three injuries mentioned earlier also mean Alt’s importance to the Eagles has grown because those three would likely have played big roles on the Eagles blue line.

Lindholm’s injury seems to be the least serious as he’s already back skating and head coach Jared Bednar said he’s coming along very quickly so he could be back soon. Timmins continues to skate every day but with the uncertainty of concussions and his lost summer, there remains no timeline for his return. Warsofsky’s injury remains undisclosed so that’s just a total mystery in itself.

So we’re talking about Mark Alt here. For my money, he ultimately finds his way to Loveland.

Forwards

We can reasonably lock down 12 spots, according to Bednar. Let’s start there.

Gabe Landeskog
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Alexander Kerfoot
Tyson Jost
J.T. Compher
Carl Soderberg
Matt Nieto
Matt Calvert
Gabriel Bourque
Sven Andrighetto
Colin Wilson

From there, the Avalanche have a choice to make. They can either choose to carry 13 or 14 forwards and currently have four players in contention for those spots.

Vladislav Kamenev
Dominic Toninato
Logan O’Connor
Sheldon Dries

These four players have various advantages and disadvantages of their own as they fight for roster spots. Kamenev has the highest upside and a track record of success as his last full season in the AHL was an impressive 50-point campaign and his brief stint there last year saw him produce at just under a point-per-game level. His pedigree is the highest and he’s the player I believe the coaching staff is wanting to give a spot to but are making him earn it. There have been inconsistencies in Kamenev’s game and Bednar has been vocal about them but he’s produced in his preseason appearances and that matters.

Toninato has the greatest advantage of familiarity and the most NHL experience. He appeared in just under half of Colorado’s games last year (37) but produced only two assists. His strong defensive play and ability to win faceoffs favor him, especially in a fourth-line center role that he likely would appear in. His downside is obviously the lack of offense produced last year as two points in 37 games is a staggering lack of finish and raises legitimate red flags about whether or not he’s worthy of being in the NHL.

O’Connor is fighting to win a job similar to the one he held for the Denver Pioneers last year. He was slated to be the captain of the Pios but the Avalanche signed him to an entry-level contract following his participation in development camp. He responded by putting up an excellent showing at the Vegas Rookie Faceoff and firmly placed himself at the forefront of opportunities once NHL training camp opened up. Since that time, however, his play has taken a pretty significant dip as he’s struggled to keep pace in preseason games. He has a little production to his name and as a swift-skating right wing, he is well-positioned to help the Avalanche at some point this season if he doesn’t make the opening night roster.

Dries is the true darkhorse here. Following an impressive college career at Western Michigan, Dries played for the Texas Stars in the AHL last year. He signed an ELC with the Avalanche over the summer and the 24-year-old has impressed in his time at training camp and scored a nice deflection goal against Vegas earlier in the week. He’s the real underdog as he’s also a center but he lacks the size of Kamenev and Toninato, the experience of Toninato, and the upside of Kamenev. If he makes it, it’s because he straight outplayed all the other guys. Dries is a great story to follow in the final week of the preseason.

What’s next?

Decisions! To my eye, it makes the most sense for the Avalanche to go with 14 forwards and seven defensemen. At this point, I’d keep Kamenev and O’Connor because of position flexibility. If they choose to keep Kamenev and Toninato, it means they’re carrying six centers and that just feels excessive. It’s possible they could do that and move one of them to the wall but it seems clear to me the choice really comes down to keeping the right wing in O’Connor and one of the centers. Kamenev seems the favorite today but with two preseason games remaining, anything can happen.