What's wrong with the Nuggets' offense?

 

Nikola Jokic threw his hands up in disgust.

In the moment, the Nuggets’ All-Star center’s frustration centered around one sequence — a game-sealing errant Jamal Murray bounce pass intendslowed for Jokic which ended up in the hands of Jahlil Okafor and turned into a Pelicans basket — but Jokic’s annoyance around the Nuggets’ play and particularly Denver’s offense had been building all game and throughout the first week-and-half of the regular season.

Jokic doesn’t hide his emotions well. You can tell when he’s locked in, focused and in that unique rhythm that keeps the defense off balance with every slow-motion dribble, pass-fake or look-off. When Jokic is engaged he’s a coach on the floor, barking out commands to his teammates and pointing out where he wants every teammate positioned like a traffic cop at a busy intersection.

When he’s not, that communication stops. The Nuggets’ offense devolves from a democratic orchestra of five with all players pulling their respective weight to an attack that grinds to a halt after one or two passes.

For the large part of the first two weeks of the season, the Nuggets’ offense has looked like the latter. Those patented six, seven or eight pass possessions that end in a wide-open bucket which Denver’s attack has been built upon have been few and far between.

The numbers back up the eye test too. The Nuggets made 312.5 passes and generated on average 47.2 potential assists per game last season per NBA.com, both of which were top-10 marks in the league. This year Denver is averaging 279.2 passes and 34.7 secondary assists per game. The latter number is the fourth-fewest in the league.

Overall, the Nuggets currently rank 20th in the league in offense and are averaging 105.5 points per 100 possessions (they averaged 112.9 points per 100 possessions last year) despite returning the same rotation from last season’s 54-win team which was the seventh-best offense in the league. (On defense Denver has been up and down but currently rank 14th in the league, per Cleaning The Glass, and are allowing 106 points per 100 possessions, quite a bit fewer than the 109.3 the Nuggets allowed last year.)

It’s been a puzzling, baffling and confusing start to the season on the offensive side of the floor for Denver. But if you dig into the numbers on the Nuggets’ offense you can see what’s behind those struggles.

Half-court offense and a lack of transition opportunities

The Nuggets have opened the regular season playing at the league’s slowest pace (average number of possessions per 48 minutes), which would be fine if Denver was executing in the half-court. The Nuggets aren’t so far and it’s a deviation from the norm. In the Jokic Ball era (from 2016-17 to present) Denver has usually played at around a league average or slightly below league average pace and the Nuggets have also been one of the best half-court teams in the league.

Through six games the Nuggets are ranked 21st in the league in points per possession in the half-court, per Cleaning The Glass. Denver’s current struggles to score against set defenses could be offset if it got out in transition more often, but the Nuggets are having a difficult time generating those types of opportunities. Eighty-three percent of Denver’s offensive plays are currently being run in the half-court.

A costly injury

The Nuggets’ starting five with Will Barton began the year with a flurry. Through four games the Nuggets’ Jamal Murray-Gary Harris-Barton-Paul Millsap-Nikola Jokic five-some is the fifth-most efficient lineup in the league that’s played at least 50 minutes together. That lineup is currently sporting a worse than expected Offensive Rating (104.8 points per 100 possessions), but an elite Defensive Rating (89).

With Barton sidelined for the last two games, the Nuggets elevated Torrey Craig into their starting lineup, and the results haven’t been good. On the season, the Murray-Harris-Craig-Millsap-Jokic lineup is averaging only 101.1 points per 100 possessions and has been a disaster defensively (116.7 Defensive Rating).

Defenses aren’t really paying too much mind to Craig, who’s shooting 2 of 13 from 3 and has missed his last 12 triples, on offense. At times it’s as if Denver is playing 4-on-5 on that end of the floor.

The Nuggets are experiencing a bit of Déjà Vu with Barton’s injury. Last season Denver’s starting small forward went down in the second game of the year and the Nuggets elevated Craig into their starting unit. Their offense tanked just as it has over the last two games. Last season in the 10 games after Barton went down the Murray-Harris-Craig-Millsap-Jokic lineup registered a 94.2 Offensive Rating, a 104.7 Defensive Rating, and a -10.5 Net Rating. So far this season that lineup has recorded a -15.5 Net Rating.

In theory, the addition of Craig to the starting lineup should be a move that bolsters Denver’s defense. This year it hasn’t. Offensively, the Nuggets didn’t find any success with that group last season and haven’t to begin this year either.

Poor 3-point shooting and finishing at the rim

The Nuggets’ half-court attack would look much better if the open 3-pointers that their offense works to generate would drop. As a team, Denver is shooting 34.3% from 3 this season, good for 15th in the league, but on 3-point shots that NBA.com designates as ‘open’ (when the closest defender is 4-6 feet away) or ‘wide open’ (when the closest defender is 6-8 feet away) the Nuggets are also shooting around 34%.

Individually, Will Barton (42.9%), Malik Beasley (42.3%), Paul Millsap (41.2%), and Monte Morris (60% but on just five attempts) have shot the ball well from 3 out of the gate. Gary Harris (36.7%) has been solid but not spectacular while Jamal Murray (34.5%), Nikola Jokic (28.6%), Jerami Grant (21.1%) and Torrey Craig (15.4%) are all shooting below their 2018-19 season averages so far.

The Nuggets have struggled to finish at the rim too. Over the last two seasons Denver has been around league-average in its field goal percentage at the rim but currently can’t find the bottom of the net from short distance. Per Cleaning The Glass, the Nuggets have been bad from mid-range to start the year too.

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The NBA season is a long and grueling journey where teams go through two or three versions of themselves before a final product is revealed come playoff time. The Nuggets’ poor start to the season on the offensive side of the ball could be just that — a brief divergence from three seasons of strong offensive play before Denver returns to the top-10 attack it’s had over the last few years.

Of course, the Nuggets will need Jokic to pull his weight too. He hasn’t been the aggressive offensive force that he was in the playoffs last season and has had too many stretches where he hasn’t cared to gaze at the rim. Jokic deserves some blame for Denver’s slow offensive start.

But like a bad poker player, Jokic has a tell. When he’s not in love with how the Nuggets’ offense is operating he’ll say it with his body language, how aggressive he plays and how engaged he is on the floor.

When the Nuggets’ offense is back, Jokic will be the first to let everybody know.