What's Next for A.J. Greer?

When the Colorado Avalanche selected A.J. Greer 39th overall in last year’s NHL Entry Draft, there were plenty of questions about selecting a player coming off a seven-point season for the Boston Terriers that early. He was projected to be a third round selection at the earliest but given the additional second round selection obtained from the Buffalo Sabres in the Ryan O’Reilly trade, the Avalanche took a leap of faith and made sure they got their guy in Greer.

The big-bodied Greer is built like a classic power forward at 6’3”, 205 pounds and plays a high-energy style but his usage at BU left him playing more of a defensive-oriented role, which suppressed the offensive production some felt would never show up. After appearing in 18 games for the Terriers in his sophomore season, Greer made the huge decision to jump ship to the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League to continue his hockey career, joining the powerhouse Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, who had wisely secured his rights in the 11th round of the QMJHL Entry Draft in 2013. Greer would be joining fellow Avalanche draftees Julien Nantel, a 2014 seventh round selection, and J.C. Beaudin, who was drafted a round behind Greer in 2015, and his offensive explosion down the stretch run was a primary driving force behind Rouyn-Noranda’s postseason success.

The three would be part of a memorable run for the Huskies, winning their first President Cup in team history and ultimately losing one of the most incredible Memorial Cup Final games in recent memory as they lost in overtime to the London Knights of the Ontario Hockey League yesterday. As Nantel, who has already signed his entry-level contract, departs for the San Antonio Rampage next season, and Beaudin, who will return for another year with the Huskies, have clear-cut paths for next season, the future for Greer is murkier.

Because Greer was originally a selection out of NCAA, the Avalanche find themselves in the precarious position of having the ability to offer Greer a pro contract and placing him in San Antonio next season despite him only being 19 years old. The NHL-CHL agreement that stipulates players cannot play in the AHL before being 20 does not apply because Greer was drafted out of college, giving Greer the opportunity to play in the AHL a full year earlier than his peers. The real question, though, is “should he?”

The case for the AHL

Greer would be facing a dramatic increase in his development curve should he jump to the Rampage, going from lightly-used depth forward at BU to competing for a top six forward spot in the American Hockey League, the world’s top pro development league. At 19, Greer would be one of the younger players in the league and seeing significant minutes could put him on a much faster track to the Avalanche than was expected the day he was drafted, when he was looking like he would likely spend at least three years playing for the Terriers before jumping to the AHL.

Cutting that timeline short would put Greer one step away from the NHL and in position to be an injury call-up when the Avalanche face their annual war of attrition. The prime selling point of Greer in the AHL, though, is it would serve essentially as a “free” year of development in professional hockey. Because he’d be starting the year as a 19 year old, the start of his ELC would slide to 2017-18 and give the Avalanche, in essence, a four-year ELC instead of the standard three. For reference, this is basically what just happened with star prospect Mikko Rantanen last season, except he was 18 instead of 19.

The Avs could leave him down in the QMJHL to continue being a physically dominant player, but how much is he really gaining from playing in a league where few players are built to stand up to his brute force playstyle? The AHL is where players separate themselves physically and learn to play the kind of game Greer prefers but against competition that he won’t simply overwhelm. Beginning in the AHL, Greer stops being the biggest kid in the schoolyard and would have to learn to be successful when “run them over” stops being a viable solution.

Given his extremely competitive nature, Greer would likely welcome the challenge of jumping another level and putting himself on the brink of the NHL. His drive and determination are key factors in him seeing the success he has recently and he thrives on people doubting him. Should he choose to make the leap, there certainly would not be a short supply of people questioning his decision, which just might bring out the very best he has to offer.

The case against the AHL

The main point against moving Greer so quickly is simply that it would be too much, too soon. How many times have we seen teams take aggressive development routes with prospects and watched the prospect flame out because of it? It’s something teams have been and will continue doing forever and every prospect presents the unique problem of exactly when a player is ready to take the next step. Is Greer, who has only excelled in the past several months, truly ready for pro hockey simply because he’s bigger than a few other players? Just because he’s bigger than your average QMJHL player doesn’t mean he necessarily uses it to maximum effectiveness.

Greer is still only 19, which is great for contractual reasons but not great for mental maturity. The same competitiveness and drive that could be an asset that allows him to develop quickly is also something that needs to harnessed, not unleashed without consequence. Another year of juniors allows Greer to really settle into a role over the long-term, something his circuitous path up to this point has prevented. Given responsibility, expectations, and a clearly defined role allows for a more normal development track to take place.

Greer is still the kind of raw prospect who historically benefits enormously from that little extra patience and rushing him to the AHL just for the sake of getting a “free” year of AHL development could be the catalyst we point to down the road if Greer ultimately fails to develop into an impact player. It’s a smart business decision if it pays off but after using the 39th overall selection on him, the Avs made him a high-value asset they badly need to see legitimate returns on. Why rush him?

Whatever Greer and the Avalanche decide to do, there’s no doubt Greer has had the kind of second half of his season that has started to turn a lot of his doubters into believers. The decision about what’s next will play a pivotal role in his future success. For all involved in this 50-50 decision, they had better hope they choose correctly.