What's going wrong for the Avs in their worst segment of the year?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-2-0 coming out of the All-Star break. In those ten games, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander are among the top-five scorers in the league.

When Colorado last saw the Leafs in January, they launched an impressive 5-3 comeback win. Another comeback was in order when Tyler Bertuzzi notched his third-career hat trick in Ball Arena last night.

Is it the curse of the Bertuzzi family or a fate of their own creation?

A late penalty from Mikko Rantanen impaled the Avs and their penalty kill struggled to defend against the hottest powerplay in the NHL right now.

Colorado fell 4-3.

“Now we’re 3-5-1, our worst segment of the year so far,” said Jared Bednar. “That’s the kind of heat that we’re trying to put on our guys… it’s about the process. We’re also fighting for the division and home ice – that’s starting to come into play now. When you play hard and play well and you don’t come away with any points, it’s frustrating.”

The Duality of Special Teams

Colorado capitalized on their lone powerplay, but their penalty kill couldn’t withstand Toronto’s man-advantage. The Leafs went two-for-two.

On one hand, MacKinnon extended his home point-streak early in the contest to assuage any will they, won’t they concerns. A delay of game call less than a minute into the contest gave the Avs a man-advantage.

Colorado moved the puck well. Jonathan Drouin acted as the rover and his quick reads helped to keep the play alive. Cale Makar had a good keep and it allowed them to cycle the puck and reset. Makar eventually walked the blueline and found Nathan MacKinnon at the left-circle. MacKinnon sent a quick feed to Artturi Lehkonen at the net-front to tap in.

In his 500th career game, Lehkonen opened the scoring and recorded his eighth goal of the year. Makar also got back on the scoresheet after being held off it for seven games and tied Tyson Barrie’s record for most points as a defenseman in Avs/Nordiques history.

MacKinnon set up Andrew Cogliano and Mikko Rantanen later in the contest, so his three-point night improved his home record even more.

Nathan MacKinnon is averaging above two points-per-game on home ice this season. Only three players over the last 30 years finished a season averaging at least two points-per-game at home: Connor McDavid, Mario Lemieux, and Jaromir Jagr.

On the other hand, Toronto has the best powerplay in the league over the past ten games at an insane 53.9%.

Bednar didn’t love Ross Colton’s interference call in the first, and Rantanen’s delay of game in the third was hard to dress up any differently than a costly mistake.

Moose-Sized Mistake

“We talked about it. You can’t give them too many opportunities,” Bednar said. “It ends up being the difference in the hockey game because I thought we played really well.”

In an effort to clear the puck up ice, Rantanen accidentally sailed it into the stands from his own end.

Rantanen was hard on himself postgame too. “There’s no rush on that play,” he lamented.

Toronto was calculated and their quick execution was lethal on the powerplay. It wasn’t as if the penalty kill allowed a shooting gallery on Alexandar Georgiev. He faced three shots and two went in – all were high-danger opportunities on his doorstep.

Rantanen otherwise finished the night with the third-best Corsi-for-percentage (71.43) of any player at even strength and scored a huge goal early in the third period to tie the game.

MacKinnon went streaking across the slot and dropped a no-look pass to Rantanen out high. Rantanen took his time with the shot selection and picked his corner of the net. His wrister went past several bodies.

It was his first goal in four games and 30th of the year. It appropriately came after some recent criticisms to just take the shot. It’s one of his deadliest weapons.

“I think l’ve been looking to pass first maybe too much lately,” he said. “Trying to attack more like tonight and moving forward.”

Rantanen actually finished with the most shot attempts of anyone with nine total attempts and three shots on net.

That number was significantly lower in past contests because he opted to defer too much, so there was an observable improvement. 

He was more engaged which makes his third period gaffe heartbreaking: all that concerted effort only to have a split second lapse wash away all of the good.

He was so frustrated with himself postgame, I can confidently say no one is more upset with Mikko Rantanen than Mikko Rantanen.

Poor Puck Management

Rantanen’s mental-lapse wasn’t the only poor decision making. Toronto scored two goals in the second period which gave the Leafs their first lead of the game and changed the tide.

There was a concern of puck management through two periods. Colorado led the possession battle and had better quality chances, but Toronto led the shots battle and had the goal advantage. What cost the Avs in a big way was a shocking twelve giveaways in the opening 40. 

Toronto by comparison only had two (they finished with three total). The giveaways were in part due to forced turnovers because the Leafs played aggressively man-on-man. The Leafs saw a vulnerability in Colorado’s puck carriers and capitalized on it.

The Avs are usually stronger on pucks. Good teams will jump on any weakness.

“Probably need a save on that one.”

The goal that gave Toronto their first lead of the game came late in the second period.

Logan O’Connor and Makar battled along the boards, but Toronto escaped with the puck. Marner carried the puck out high and wristed a shot past Georgiev from distance. Matthew Knies acted as a bit of a screen and the point isn’t typically Marner’s M.O., but it would have been great if Georgiev saw some more of that puck.

“I’d like to have that goal back too,” Bednar said. “He doesn’t deflect it, a shot from the point, probably need a save on that one.”

To Colorado’s credit, the Avs protected the house pretty well at five-on-five, especially comparatively, so a lot of the Leafs’ chances had to come from the perimeter and out high which is a good problem to have.

But Georgiev’s lack of eyes on the puck at distance proved to be another costly mistake in a game of mistakes.

“We kind of shot ourselves in the foot,” Bednar concluded.

What’s going on?

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Avs are 3-5-2 in ten games. That’s 0.400 hockey and not to their standard by any stretch. Colorado lost a huge piece of the puzzle when Val Nichushkin entered the Player Assistance program on January 15th.

The Avs are 8-7-2 in his absence, but their powerplay has struggled (18.9%) and their penalty kill too (26th in the league without him).

He’s not the sole reason Colorado has fought themselves over this last segment, but he is truly missed. His return will have a big impact when that day comes.

A few things have happened simultaneously to challenge the Avs further: Georgiev’s save percentage is 0.900 coming out of the break, but his goals-against-average in that time is above three goals. Georgiev has made some saves along the way as evidenced by his save percentage, but alongside the top pair and top line experiencing varying degrees of a scoring drought (especially on that road trip), it’s been hard to win every game with three goal demands.

One of these things will have to give.

Factor in the limitations of Colorado’s depth, which has seen Miles Wood, O’Connor, and Cogliano miss games recently, and it’s not surprising the Avs have struggled in February.

They haven’t been able to count on consistent secondary scoring, the top line has had to work through some things (especially Rantanen), and Makar has been going through it. Their goaltending hasn’t been bad, but it hasn’t been lights out and there wasn’t a safety net to usher the top guys back to their peak comfortably.