What you need to know about the Broncos schedule – Part 4, Weeks 14-17

Just one of the Broncos’ final four opponents in 2020 had a winning record last year. But past failure is not a guarantee of future frustration, and if the Chargers and Raiders stay in the race, the Broncos could face a thorny stretch run as they attempt to return to the playoffs after missing the last four postseasons.

Previously:

• Part 1: Weeks 1-4
• Part 2: Weeks 5-9
• Part 3: Weeks 10-13

WEEK 14: AT CAROLINA PANTHERS

Date: Sunday, December 13
Time: 11 a.m. MST
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
TV: CBS

The Broncos will jet to the Queen City to start the final quarter of the season. This will be the Broncos’ last game of the year against the NFC South. It also brings the Broncos into a scenario in which they have struggled: a road game against an NFC opponent in the last four weeks of the season.

Denver has lost five in a row and six of its last seven in this set of circumstances; their only road win in the final four games of the regular season against an NFC foe since 2001 came in a 37-20 triumph over the Arizona Cardinals on Dec. 17, 2006.

NOTES:

• One reason why Ron Rivera is no longer stalking the Panthers’ sideline is the team’s recent penchant for fades after fast starts. Carolina was 6-2 at midseason in 2018, then dropped seven consecutive games before winning its season finale to finish 7-9. Last year, the fade was even worse; the Panthers were 5-3 at midseason, then didn’t win again, firing Rivera four games into an eight-game skid to end the year.
• Carolina hasn’t won a home game after Veterans Day since Christmas Eve of 2017, losing seven-straight home games after that date. The Panthers have been porous in those games, surrendering at least 29 points in five of those seven contests.
• Denver holds a 5-1 edge in the series, including the 24-10 win over Carolina in Super Bowl 50. The teams have split the two games played in Charlotte; both were decided by at least 20 points (30-10 for the Panthers in 2008; 36-14 in the Broncos’ favor four years later).
• Denver has started a different quarterback in each of its five regular-season games with the Panthers: John Elway (1997), Jake Plummer (2004), Jay Cutler (2008), Peyton Manning (2012) and Trevor Siemian (2016).

Ridiculously early prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 21. Drawing Carolina at the end of Matt Rhule’s first season could prove tricky, as their season could look a lot like the Broncos’ first year under Vic Fangio, with the team displaying fundamental improvement as the season progresses. With the Broncos having played New Orleans and Kansas City in the previous two weeks and with Buffalo looming in Week 15, this could be a prime letdown moment.

WEEK 15: BUFFALO BILLS

Date: Saturday, December 19 or Sunday, December 20
Time: TBD
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: TBD

One of the most compelling matchups of the season features two young quarterbacks with plenty of arm talent, mobility and leadership in common. Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Denver’s Drew Lock also had similar knocks coming out of Wyoming and Missouri, respectively, with both being critiqued for relatively low completion percentages in college compared with some other quarterbacks in their draft class.

NOTES:

• Allen started six more games as a rookie in 2018 than Lock did in 2019, so he finished with more completions, yards and touchdowns in his first year than Lock did. But Lock had a better completion percentage (64.1, compared with Allen’s 52.8), a superior passer rating (89.7 to 67.9) and a better touchdown-to-interception ratio (7-to-3 to 10-to-12). Allen’s second-year passer rating of 85.3 was 4.4 points below Lock’s efficiency rating as a rookie.
• Lock and Allen were scheduled for a college duel in 2018, but an Allen injury prevented him from playing in what ended up as a 40-13 Missouri win at Faurot Field in Columbia, Mo.
• No original American Football League team has visited Denver less frequently than the Bills. This will be just the sixth trip that the Bills have made to the Mile High City since the AFL-NFL merger and the first since 2014.
• Buffalo has just one win in Denver since 1968: a 30-23 triumph over the Cutler-led Broncos in Week 16 of the 2008 season. This was the second of a three-game, season-ending losing streak that handed the AFC West to the then-San Diego Chargers. That game was also Mike Shanahan’s last home game as Broncos coach; he was dismissed nine days later.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 17. I have the Broncos slated to be 7-6 entering this game with two consecutive losses to the Chiefs and Panthers to open December. With no margin for error, expect the Broncos to come out aggressive and pull off what could be considered a mild upset.

WEEK 16: AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Date: Saturday, December 26 or Sunday, December 27
Time: TBD
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
TV: TBD

Will it be Justin Herbert taking the snaps by this point in the season? If that is the case, the Broncos should like their chances; they’ve won five of their last seven road games against rookie starting quarterbacks and are 5-3 overall in that scenario since 2000. Taylor, meanwhile, guided Buffalo to a 26-16 win over Denver in 2018 in his only career start against the Broncos. However, his teams are 23-22-1 (including postseason) in games that he has started — 22-21 with the Bills and 1-1-1 as a Cleveland Brown. (The sole win of which he was a part in Cleveland came when Baker Mayfield relieved him.)

NOTES:

• Denver has won its last two December road games against the Chargers, but their long-term record in late-season trips to Southern California to face the Bolts is just 5-13.
• The Broncos have won seven of their last nine road games against the Chargers, including two of three since the franchise moved to Los Angeles. Overall, the Broncos won 8 of 14 road games against the Chargers that Philip Rivers started from 2006 through last year.
• The Broncos are just 2-10 in AFC West road games since Peyton Manning’s retirement, but both of the wins were at the Chargers’ expense — 23-22 in 2018 and 20-13 last October.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 23, Chargers 10. Could the Chargers have Herbert in the lineup by then? If he is, then the Bolts are probably out of the playoff picture, which would play into the Broncos’ hands. But what works even more in the Broncos’ favor is the Chargers’ lack of any kind of home-field advantage since moving to Los Angeles.

WEEK 17: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Date: Sunday, December 3, 2021
Time: 2:25 p.m. MST
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS

For the seventh consecutive year, the Broncos will close the regular season at home. Every other team has played at least one Week 17 road game since 2014. Denver is 4-2 in the previous six games, including three wins over the Raiders (2014, 2016 and 2019). Conversely, this will be the seventh consecutive year in which the Raiders have finished the regular season on the road; they have lost all six of those games.

NOTES:

• The Raiders have lost nine consecutive Week 17 games. Only the Cleveland Browns have a longer season-ending skid (10 in a row).
• Denver has won five consecutive regular-season-ending games against the Raiders, dating back to a 31-28 win at Oakland on Christmas Eve 1995.
• The Broncos have never lost a home game to a Jon Gruden-coached team, defeating the Gruden-led Raiders each year in Denver from 1998-2001 and again the last two years. The Broncos also defeated Tampa Bay 16-13 in 2008, Gruden’s final year as the Bucs’ head coach.
• Denver’s first home win over a Gruden-led team was by 26 points (40-14 in 1998) . The next six were by a combined 20 points, including last December’s 16-15 win that was preserved by Shelby Harris’ deflection of a Derek Carr two-point-conversion pass to Hunter Renfrow.
• The Broncos have held Oakland to fewer than 20 points in six consecutive home games in the series. Oakland last got out of the teens in Denver by scoring 21 points in a 37-21 Denver win on Sept. 23, 2013.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 28, Raiders 16. Unlike their Week 17 game last season, this one will see more offensive firepower as the Broncos clinch a wild-card spot and return to the postseason after a four-year absence.

Final predicted Broncos record: 10-6.