What you need to know about the Broncos schedule – Part 3, Weeks 10-13

In the third quarter of the season, it’s all about the AFC West, as the Broncos face each of their division rivals, plus a difficult home game against the New Orleans Saints.

WEEK 10: AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Date: Sunday, November 15
Time: 2:05 p.m. MST
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
TV: CBS

The Broncos haven’t defeated the Raiders on the road since Peyton Manning was flinging passes. They ended the second Oakland era of this series with a four-game skid. That is the longest road losing streak for the Broncos against the Raiders since they dropped eight in a row to the Raiders in Los Angeles from 1988-94 (including a playoff loss on Jan. 9, 1994). The streak ended when the Raiders moved back to Oakland, and Denver promptly won five of the next six games played at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The Broncos hope that another relocation leads to a similar reversal of fortune.

NOTES:

• It was not rare that the Broncos defeated the Raiders in Week 17 last season; Denver has won seven of its last eight home games against the Raiders. What was rare was HOW the Broncos accomplished this. According to pro-football-reference.com, the Broncos became just the second team since 1940 – and the first since the 1987 Houston Oilers – to win when gaining fewer than 250 yards, allowing more than 450 yards and failing to post a positive turnover margin. (The Broncos gained 238 yards and allowed 477, with each team turning over the football once.) Prior to the Broncos’ win over the Raiders, teams with that stat line had lost 158 consecutive games and were 1-312 since 1940. In other words … don’t expect the Broncos to ever win another game like that again.
• This marks the first of two regular-season games the Broncos will play in stadiums that are in their first year hosting the NFL. Denver is 4-2 in this scenario, with the most recent game coming on Dec. 17, 2006. That day, Jay Cutler and the Broncos won a duel of rookie first-round QBs, defeating the Matt Leinart-led Cardinals 37-20 to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive. In the AFL days, the Broncos went 4-14 in first-year AFL stadiums.
• Overall, Denver is 28-43-1 when playing its first game in a road or neutral stadium. The Broncos have won three of their last four regular-season or playoff games when making their first appearance in a venue, a run that includes the 24-10 Super Bowl 50 win at Levi’s Stadium. Prior to that recent run, the Broncos lost six consecutive games in this scenario from 2007-10 — after winning six first-time games in enemy stadiums from 2002-06.
• An interesting quirk of the Week 10 schedule is that CBS does not air any early games. This is likely due to the rescheduling of The Masters for Nov. 12-15, which would put the final round at the same time as the early-afternoon games. If the schedule holds, Broncos-Raiders would be one of a trio of regionally-broadcast games that follow the prestigious golf tournament from Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia.

Ridiculously early prediction: Raiders 31, Broncos 27. Oakland’s pass-catching complement has enough weapons to cause mismatch problems for the Broncos – particularly in the form of tight end Darren Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow – and when you add speed burner Henry Ruggs III to the mix, Derek Carr should have no excuse to not have success. The Broncos stole one from the Raiders last December, and a guess here is that the script flips on the Broncos – at least this time.

WEEK 11: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Date: Sunday, November 22
Time: 2:05 p.m. MST
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: CBS

Even if fans are at the games this season, it will look and feel different than any trip the Chargers have made to Denver in 14 seasons. The last time the Broncos saw a Chargers team visit Denver without Philip Rivers starting, it was Week 2 of the 2005 season – a game that saw Champ Bailey turn around the contest, and perhaps the season, with a pick-6 to open the second half. Now, the Chargers will return with Bailey’s protégé, 2010s All-Decade cornerback Chris Harris Jr., wearing the baby blue and gold.

NOTES:

• How different was it for the Chargers with Rivers? Consider this: During his 14 years as the Chargers’ starter, they went a respectable 7-8 at Mile High — .500 in the regular season, and 0-1 in the playoffs (a 27-20 Broncos win on Jan. 12, 2014).
• Before Rivers’ arrival, the Chargers were 11-34-1 in Denver, including a 3-20 record since John Elway joined the Broncos as a player in 1983.
• With either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert at quarterback, the Chargers would like to minimize miscues on offense. Of course, the Broncos tried to make this equation work in the post-Manning era and failed. Whether it’s different for L.A. will determine whether this is a bounce-back season for Anthony Lynn or another flummoxing season, the type in which this franchise specializes.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 16, Chargers 13. Los Angeles’ defense is flooded with talent at all three levels, and should be one of the league’s best at playing the rush-and-cover game. The problem here is that their offense, with either Taylor or Herbert at the helm, likely lacks the firepower to get the team in front and turn the defense loose to maximize its strengths in the pass rush and coverage.

WEEK 12: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Date: Sunday, November 29
Time: 2:05 p.m. MST
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: FOX

For the first time in eight years, the Saints trek to Denver. The pregame storyline promises to be the return of Emmanuel Sanders for his first game at Mile High since the Broncos dealt him to the San Francisco 49ers last October. But one thing to expect is points: lots of them from the Broncos. Denver has scored at least 34 points in four of their five games against the Saints since 2000, more than they’ve had against all but four teams: division rivals Kansas City, Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers and NFC West foe Arizona. The Broncos have faced those three division foes 40 times apiece since 2000 and the Cardinals six times; the Broncos have only played the Saints five times since 2000.

NOTES:

• Denver has been a house of horrors for Saints quarterback Drew Brees. In seven previous starts at Mile High, his teams are 0-5, including three losses as San Diego’s starting quarterback in 2002, 2004 and 2005.
• The Broncos have won five consecutive games in the series, starting with a 38-23 win at the then-Louisiana Superdome in 2000. That game saw Mike Anderson go off for 251 rushing yards, a rookie record at the time that has since been surpassed by three others.
• If the Broncos lose to Tampa Bay in Week 3, don’t fret; they’ve won at least one home game against an NFC opponent for 13 consecutive seasons dating back to 2007. That said, the Broncos are just 3-4 in their last seven home games against NFC foes after winning 10 in a row from December 2011 through September 2016.
• Denver hasn’t lost to the Saints since falling 30-28 in the 1994 season finale, which was the last game of Wade Phillips’ two-season tenure. Mike Shanahan replaced him as head coach just over a month later.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 24, Saints 23. Denver’s defense gets just enough stops to keep hope alive, and then Drew Lock writes a clutch chapter in his nascent career novel with a late touchdown march to send Broncos fans near and far into glee. It’s not 34 points, but it’s a W nonetheless.

WEEK 13: AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Date: Sunday, December 6
Time: 6:20 p.m. MST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: NBC

December in Kansas City. A time of gorgeous lights on the buildings in Country Club Plaza, soul-warming barbecue dinners on cold nights and Denver indigestion from the trips the Broncos have made there over the years. Denver is 3-18 all-time in December in Kansas City, with the three wins coming in 1994, 2009 and 2013 (just getting in under the wire on Dec. 1 of that year). What’s worse is that in the Broncos’ last two December trips to Kansas City, the Chiefs have outscored them 56-13.

NOTES:

• This is scheduled to be the Broncos’ first Sunday Night Football game since a 41-16 home loss to New England on Nov. 12, 2017.
• Denver is 3-11 in its last 14 prime-time regular-season games. In the team’s previous 14 prime-time games, the record was the inverse: 11-3.
• The Broncos have been held below 20 points in four consecutive prime-time games. That is their longest such streak since 1979-80, when the Broncos scored 9, 7, 7 and 14 points in prime-time losses to the Los Angeles Rams (13-9), Pittsburgh Steelers (42-7), San Diego Chargers (17-7) and New England Patriots (23-14). A 20-17 home win over Washington on Oct. 13, 1980 snapped it.
• Kansas City’s nine-game series winning streak is the longest for either team since an 11-game winning streak from 1964-69.
• The Chiefs have outscored the Broncos 115-48 in the last four games in the series at Arrowhead Stadium, good for a dispiriting per-game average score of 29-12.
• Want to have a chance to beat the Chiefs? Run — and be in position where you can keep running the ball. In the last two seasons, teams have run more often than they’ve called pass plays just six times against Kansas City … and the Chiefs are 1-5 in these games. The Chiefs are 27-4 when teams pass more often than they run in that span. Avoiding turnovers hasn’t done much good; Kansas City is 6-2 in 2018 and 2019 when teams don’t turn over the football. Passing efficiency hasn’t usually translated; the Chiefs are 7-5 when the opposing team posts a passer rating greater than 100.0. Even getting a decent amount of yardage on the ground only takes you so far; Kansas City is 6-6 in the last two seasons when allowing 170 or more rushing yards.

Ridiculously early prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 14. Denver hangs tough, but with a season sweep, the Chiefs would extend their winning streak in the series to 11 games.