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What will Melvin Gordon bring to the Broncos?

Andrew Mason Avatar
March 20, 2020
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DENVER — Melvin Gordon makes the Broncos’ running back room better.

That is the easiest and best place to begin any evaluation of the value that the sixth-year veteran running back brings to the team on a two-year contract.

The room improved — and it needed to. That became clear in conversations with various sources around the NFL Scouting Combine last month, where two things were obvious to observers of the Broncos offense.

First, Phillip Lindsay is good enough to carry the load when the need arises. He’s a RB1.

Second, he needs help. A RB1a. And Royce Freeman is not explosive enough for that sort of role.

So do you roll the dice on the possibility of getting a game-changing back from the draft, despite value being better at other positions? Or do you take the proven commodity with more wear and tear?

Much to the consternation of the part of the analytics community that believes you don’t ever give a big contract to a running back, the Broncos chose the latter.

And with Gordon in particular, there are two specific aspects of his game that fill gaps in the RB room.

First, there is his pass-catching ability. The Broncos have not had a running back surpass 400 receiving yards in a single season since Knowshon Moreno in 2013.

Gordon has done that three times in the last four years. The Broncos can count on Gordon catching three to four passes per game, moving the chains on 38.7 percent of them — the rate at which he’s accumulated first downs in the passing game since 2016.

The Broncos need this to make Pat Shurmur’s offense work.

Denver is one of just five teams that has not seen one of their running backs post at least 400 receiving yards in any of the last six seasons. Furthermore, last season Freeman and Lindsay averaged just 6.0 and 5.6 yards per catch, respectively.

Expect Gordon to change that. He has not averaged fewer than 7.0 yards a catch since his rookie season of 2015 and has a career average of 8.4 yards per reception.

Then there is Gordon’s effectiveness in the red zone, which is crucial to why Gordon ranks second in the league in total touchdowns scored per game among those with at least 10 touchdowns over the last four seasons, trailing only Todd Gurley, who signed with the Atlanta Falcons on Friday.

After a frustrating rookie campaign in which Gordon didn’t score, he began collecting touchdowns at a pace of nearly one per game. His per-16-game average of 14.2 scores was even better in the last two seasons, when he scored 23 touchdowns in spite of missing eight games — four of which were because of a holdout to start last season.

But what is just as important is his ability to move the chains within the red zone. In the last four seasons, Gordon has picked up first downs on 36.6 percent of his 175 total touches inside the opponent’s 19-yard line.

In that same four-year span, Broncos running backs moved the chains on just 24.8 percent of their 220 opportunities.

Gordon’s arrival also does not shut the door on the Broncos working out a longer-term deal for Lindsay in the next 24 months.

The length of Gordon’s contract ensures that the Broncos can take care of the former CU standout for the long term, as well. Lindsay is in the final year of his rookie deal, but he is only a restricted free agent next year, not an unrestricted one. The Broncos could give him a second-round tender and have him back in 2021 for roughly $3.4 million, depending on the value of tenders at that point. (The second-round RFA tender value this year is $3.25 million.) Then, a long-term deal could ensure Lindsay plays the bulk of his career for his hometown team.

It all sets up for the possibility of a graceful process for the evolution of the running-back position on the Broncos’ roster. For the next two years, Gordon is the elder back in the room with the biggest contract. After that, the baton could pass to Lindsay if he signs a three- or four-year deal that would start in 2022, the year in which he could become an unrestricted free agent.

In the meantime, the Broncos can continue foraging for running backs in the late rounds and the undrafted market. While Day 2 and Day 3 drafted running backs have largely fallen short of expectations for various reasons, the Broncos have gotten three 1,000-yard seasons and two Pro Bowl appearances from undrafted running backs in the Elway era — C.J. Anderson (class of 2013) and Lindsay (2018).

Denver has time to continue searching for the next generation at the position with the security that comes with having two productive running backs atop the depth chart. Lindsay and Gordon have different skill sets and complement each other well, but both have proven they can carry the load, giving Shurmur the freedom to ride the “hot hand.”

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