What the Rockies lost by signing Wade Davis

DENVER – Yesterday, the Colorado Rockies signed Wade Davis to a three-year, $52 million contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Davis was the first player to be signed this offseason to receive a qualifying offer. New rules enacted this winter will not penalize the Rockies to the same extent as they did signing Ian Desmond.

Because the Chicago Cubs are not a revenue-sharing recipient, the Rockies will forfeit their third-highest pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, which would be No. 61 overall and the Cubs would get a compensatory pick, currently No. 75. This is subject to change based on signings of others qualified players.

Last year the Rockies lost a first-round pick (No. 11 overall) by signing Desmond. There are many more rules with the new QO system but all you need to know is that it benefited the Rockies here and it will continue to as long as this current collective bargaining agreement is in place.

Roster

The Rockies 40-man roster was also full at the time of the signing of Davis and the club has already made it official which means they needed to designate a player for assignment. That player was pitcher Shane Carle.

Carle, 26, had a few different stints in the bigs in 2017 albeit he only ended up throwing in three games. In the season he made his major league debut he pitched four innings and allowed three runs on six hits. He spent most of last season in Triple-A, where he posted a 5.37 ERA in 62 innings pitched. Among those games in Triple-A, he started three but the righty profiles as a reliever if he were to have another shot in the majors.

Carle has been solid in stretches, performing well in Double-A in 2015 and earning on spot in the Arizona Fall League in 2016.

Colorado has seven days to trade Carle or waive him now that he’s been designated. However, it’s unlikely he’s claimed. The Rockies would most likely outright him to Triple-A and have him in a similar role to last year as part of the deep taxi squad.

The Rockies’ roster is at 40 men.

Money

The breakdown of the Davis deal, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com and Jon Heyman from FanRag Sports, has the closer making $16 million in 2018, $18 million in 2019 and $17 million in 2020, with a $1 million buyout on a $15 million vesting player option for 2021. That option becomes a player option with 30 games pitched in 2020 and is dependent on Davis remaining healthy.

The Rockies have employed similar options on Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee for the final years of their respective contracts.

By our calculation, Colorado has $102 million tied up already for 2018, which accounts for nine players. With arbitration-eligible salaries yet to be set and pre-arbitration not yet marked down, MLBTR/Baseball Reference estimates Colorado will spend roughly $139.7 million if it were to settle with all of its players and offer its pre-arb players the league minimum.

Last year, the Rockies spent about $147 million on payroll and general manager Jeff Bridich said earlier this offseason he expects that number to be similar in 2018.

What’s Left

By that estimation, the Rockies have about $10 million free, which they can either hang onto until the trade deadline to acquire a big asset or make one more move now or several smaller moves. The third is the most likely.

Bridich said on Friday he’d be surprised if the club acquired another pitcher, so that likely rules out Addison Reed. Bridich did hint the club could still be looking for a catcher even though they’ve already signed Chris Iannetta. The clear target would be bringing back the backstop from last year, Jonathan Lucroy, to pair with Iannetta.

Lucroy most likely wants more than one year, but there is a scenario in which he takes one year because his first half in 2017 with Texas diminished some of his value. At one time, Lucroy was one of the three best catchers in the National League.

The option of acquiring several players probably means another middle infielder and the return of first baseman Mark Reynolds. But there is a strong argument that signing one player at $10 million, even a Carlos Gonzalez, is a better move with the combination of young players and versatility already present on Colorado’s roster.

Bullpen

The Rockies have their closers. Yes, closers, in plural. Davis will be just fine 80 percent of the time, but Shaw and McGee will provide solid options for Bud Black if Davis is ever injured or struggling. Chris Rusin is also a great option for three-inning saves, which is likely to happen at least once in 2018.

Those four players—two of them top-tier lefties—are set in place.

Mike Dunn, who signed the largest deal for a reliever in Rockies history just last year, now becomes the third lefty, the fourth-highest paid reliever on staff and the fifth option in the bullpen.

The Rockies will want to keep eight men in their bullpen and Adam Ottavino at $7 million in salary is almost certainly going to be there. One of the best pen arms in franchise history is a great rebound candidate after a very tough 2017.

The final spots will be fought for by (in descending order by big league experience): LHP Zac Rosscup, RHP Scott Oberg, RHP Jairo Diaz and RHP Carlos Estevez or the possibility of Jeff Hoffman or Antonio Senzatela, who worked 16 games from the pen in 2017, converting full-time to relief.

The Rockies have certainly tied themselves up financially a bit by signing Davis, but none of this is really that bad.  They still have tons of flexibility in the way they’ve structured contracts, and if their plan works they should be able to sign both Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado. All of this is the most optimistic scenario. But Bridich has earned the benefit of the doubt.