What the Broncos would lose/gain by moving up/back in the draft

John Elway is no stranger to working the phone lines in the first round of the NFL draft.

In 2012, his second draft in command, he traded out of this first round and then grabbed Derek Wolfe early in the second.

In 2015, he moved up five spots to snag Shane Ray.

In 2016, Elway again jumped five spots to get what he thought was his future franchise quarterback, Paxton Lynch.

Finally, last year, Elway admitted that if the Browns had drafted Bradley Chubb at No. 4, they were going to be moving back, as they already had a trade in place to do just that.

Elway was mobile as a player. He’s been just as mobile as an executive, specifically in the first round.

So who’s to say he’ll stand pat with the 10th-overall pick in April?

If he decides to make a move, up or down, here’s the price he’ll pay, or gain.

TRADE DOWN

Move back into the mid-teens

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

BEST EXAMPLE: In 2018, the Raiders went from No. 10 to No. 15 with the Cardinals

• Traded: No. 10
• Received: No. 15, 3rd-round pick and 5th-round pick

In 2018, the Buccaneers went from No. 7 to No. 12 with the Bills

• Traded: No. 7 and 7th-round pick
• Received: No. 12, 2rd-round pick (53) and 2nd-round pick (56)

In 2018, the Ravens went from No. 16 to No. 22 with the Bills

• Traded: No. 16 and 5th-round pick
• Received: No. 22 and 3rd-round pick

In 2016, the Browns went from No. 8 to No. 15 with the Titans

• Traded: No. 8 and 6th-round pick
• Received: No. 15, 3rd-round and 2017 2nd-round pick

In 2016, the Buccaneers went from No. 9 to No. 11 with the Bears

• Traded: No. 9
• Received: No. 11 and 4th-round pick

In 2015, the 49ers went from No. 15 to No. 17 with the Chargers.

• Traded: No. 15
• Received: No. 17 and 4th-round pick

The Raiders and Cardinals trade in 2018 set the market for what Denver could get moving back roughly five spots — hello Washington Redskins, who are sitting at No. 15 this year.

Moving back multiple spots after the top-10 picks will likely draw at least one second-day pick in return. Last year, the Bills proved that if a team is desperate for a quarterback, multiple Day-2 picks can be squeezed out of a team.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

The book says Denver can get an early-third-round pick by swapping No. 10 for No. 15.

By moving back three spots, to No. 13, the Broncos could pick up a late-third-round pick, while a jump back to 17 should secure a late-second.

Move back into the early-20’s

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

In 2018, the Bengals went from No. 12 to No. 21 with the Bills

• Traded: No. 12 and 6th-round pick
• Received: Cordy Glenn (starting tackle), No. 21 and 5th-round pick

In 2018, the Packers went from No. 14 to No. 27 with the Saints

• Traded: No. 14
• Received: No. 27, 5th-round pick and 2019 1st-round pick

In 2017, the Browns went from No. 12 to No. 25 with the Texans

• Traded: No. 12
• Received: No. 25 and 2018 1st-round pick

Passing up on a Top-10 pick to move into the 20’s won’t be sexy, but it will be fruitful, drawing an additional first-round pick back in return, according to past history.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

Dropping to No. 20 would get Denver a mid-second-round pick, according to the chart. Going back to 23 would make it a pick in the early second round.

Move back to the end of the first round

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

BEST EXAMPLE: In 2017, the Bills went from No. 10 to No. 27 with the Chiefs

• Traded: No. 10
• Received: No. 27, 3rd-round pick and 2018 first-round pick

The Broncos could very well be in the market for a first-round quarterback. But if another team later in the first round has their heart set on a single caller — Oakland at No. 27 or the Chargers at No. 28 anyone? — Denver could cash in big time.

The haul would be at least an additional first-round pick with more on top.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

This is when it gets really juicy, according to the chart. A trade from No. 10 to No. 27 would land the Broncos a future late-first-round pick, along with No. 27.

Trading all the way back to No. 32 would give Denver that pick plus an additional pick valued in the mid-20’s.

TRADE UP

Move up a few spots

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

In 2018, the Jets went from No. 6 to No. 3 with the Colts

• Traded No. 6, two 2018 2nd-round picks and 2019 2nd-round pick
• Received: No. 3

In 2018, the Bills went from No. 12 to No. 7 with the Buccaneers

• Traded: No. 12, 2nd-round pick (53) and 2nd-round pick (56)
• Received: No. 7 and 7th-round pick

In 2016, the Eagles went from No. 13 to No. 8 with the Dolphins

• Traded: No. 13, a starting linebacker and a starting defensive back
• Received: No. 8

Within the Top 5, each spot is worth a second-round pick, according to the Jets and Colts trade in 2018. From picks five to 10, history would say a second-round pick is worth roughly two-and-a-half spots.

In order for Elway to move from No. 10 to No. 7 or No. 8, he’d have to be willing to part with a second-round pick.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

A jump from No. 10 to No. 8 would be cheaper than history suggests, according to the chart. Denver would give up No. 10, their 4th-round pick and their 6th-round pick.

To go one more spot, to No. 7, Denver would give up No. 10 and their third-round pick.

Move into the Top 5

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

In 2015, the Bills went from No. 9 to No. 4 with the Browns

• Traded: No. 9, No. 19 overall and 4th-round pick
• Received: No. 4

The jump from No. 10 to the Top 5 is simple: No. 10 along with an additional first.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

To get where they picked last year, No. 5, the Broncos would have to give up No. 10 and their 2nd-round pick (41). However, Denver would receive Tampa Bay’s 4th-round pick along with No. 5 overall in return.

Move to the top of the draft

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

In 2016, the Rams went from No. 15 to No. 1 with the Titans

• Traded: No. 15, 2016 2nd-round pick, 2016 2nd-round pick, 2016 3rd-round pick, 2017 1st-round pick, 2017 1st-round pick
• Received: No. 1, 2016 4th-round pick, 2016 6th-round pick

In 2016, the Eagles went from No. 8 to No. 2 with the Browns

• Traded: No. 8, 3rd-round pick, 4th-round pick, 2017 1st-round pick and 2017 2nd-round pick
• Received: No. 2 overall, conditional 4th-round pick

Moving to the top of the draft certainly won’t come cheap. History would say the Broncos would be looking at parting ways with No. 10 and potentially two additional first-round draft picks, if not a Day-2 pick thrown in, too.

WHAT THE DRAFT VALUE CHART SAYS

There are multiple first-round picks involved in a jump like this.

If Denver targeted the No. 2 overall pick, they would have to give up No. 10 plus an additional pick valued in the top 10. Since Denver’s 2019 first-round pick is clearly unknown at the moment, and the fact that future picks aren’t valued as high as current picks, the Broncos would be at the mercy of the 49ers.

The same applies if the Broncos target the No. 1 overall pick, except instead of an additional top-10 pick, Denver would have to give up picks equivalent to a top-5 pick, along with No. 10 overall.

Due to the enormous value of the top two picks in the draft, and the uncertain nature of other teams future first round picks, multiple first-round picks are always exchanged in deals like this. Sometimes it’s only two — ie the Eagles going from No. 8 to No. 2 — but other times it’s three — the Rams in 2016 and the Redskins in 2012.

According to the chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth a whopping three mid-first-round picks.