What possession stats reveal about Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos offense

On a per-game basis, Denver’s offense is firmly in the middle tier so far this season — which is far above where it has been in recent years, of course, In total offense, the Broncos rank 14th — 12th in passing offense and 8th in rushing.

On a per-play basis, it’s much the same. The Broncos are 12th in the NFL in yardage per play — 8th in yards per pass play and 15th in yards per rushing attempt. And in terms of generating first downs, Denver is 15th in first-down rate per play, 11th in first-down rate per pass play and 18th in first-down rate per rushing attempts.

But it’s on a per-possession basis that the Teddy Bridgewater-led offense stands out, in part because it reflects the offense’s ability to sustain possessions, keep the defense rested and play the game at the pace the Broncos want.

And on the 28 non-kneeldown possessions mounted by the Broncos this season, they’re in the top 10 across the board:

• Adjusted points per possession: 2.71, 10th
• Net yards per possession: 43.1, 5th
• Average time of possession: 3:42, 1st
• Percentage of drives ending in turnovers: 7.1 percent, 8th

(NOTE: Adjusted points per possession takes special-teams variance out of the equation. All field-goal attempts count as 3 points; all touchdowns count as 7 points, regardless of PAT outcome.)

Those figures are more impressive when you consider where the Broncos fell in those figures last year:

• Adjusted points per possession: 1.87, 28th
• Net yards per possession: 30.3, 29th
• Average time of possession: 2:30, 31st
• Percentage of drives ending in turnovers: 17.5 percent, 32nd

In time-of-possession and net yards per possession, no one has improved more than the Broncos from 2020 to 2021. In points per possession, only the Los Angeles Rams have done better than the Broncos’ improvement of 0.84 points per possession. Given that teams have an average of 10.36 non-kneeldown possessions per game, that translates to an improvement of 8.7 points in an average game.

Of course, there is the quality of the opposition to consider.

The defenses the Broncos have faced so far rank 16th (Jets), 23rd (Giants) and 27th (Jaguars) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

So, for a balanced evaluation, let’s look at how Denver’s offense did last year with Drew Lock under center on a per-possession basis against the defenses that were 16th or lower in DVOA: the Chargers (20th), Chiefs (22nd), Panthers (24th), Patriots (26th), Raiders (28th) and Titans (29th).

• Adjusted points per possession: 1.93
• Net yards per possession: 33.0
• Average time of possession: 2:38
• Percentage of drives ending in turnovers: 18 percent

Comparable foes and much better results. If you measure the Broncos’ form this year compared with those defenses ranked 16th or lower last year, it’s profound:

• Adjusted points per possession: Improved by 0.78 points
• Net yards per possession: Improved by 10.1 yards
• Average time of possession: Improved by 1:04
• Percentage of drives ending in turnovers: Improved by 10.9 percentage points

This offers a sign that you can expect the general improvement to continue despite the more rigorous opposition that looms in the coming weeks.