What needs to happen for CSU to beat New Mexico on Friday night

 

FORT COLLINS — The last year has not been kind to Colorado State football (1-5).

Since defeating the University of New Mexico at Canvas Stadium on Oct. 13, 2018, the Rams have lost 10 straight games to FBS opponents. During this stretch, CSU’s opponents have averaged 37. 6 points per game, which for reference, would rank 119th in the country if the figure were just for 2019.

While the losses have all been unique — there’s been no shortage of creative ways for the Rams to disappoint their fans — CSU’s inability to get over the hump has been a brutal experience for anyone that bleeds green and gold.

CSU will not only look to end the cycle of despair against the Lobos Friday night, the Rams will also try to secure a decade’s worth of dominance over UNM with a 10th consecutive victory over their conference foe.

As challenging as the past few seasons have been for the fan base, a clean 10-game winning streak over any Division 1 opponent, is something that the Ram faithful could be proud of.

On the other hand, though, a loss to UNM would likely be the final breaking point for many of the diehards. Putting things lightly, UNM is a dumpster fire — and losing to the Lobos would be on par with dropping a game to an FCS team. (Sorry if those 2018 wounds are still fresh).

With that in mind, here are the keys to victory for CSU against UNM.

Get Marvin Kinsey involved

In last week’s loss to San Diego State, the Rams only had 25 rushing yards on 18 carries (1.4 yards per carry). Prior to the Homecoming loss, in the five years that Bobo has led the Rams, the only other time that CSU totaled less than 30 rushing yards in a game was the 2018 loss to Wyoming. On that night, the Rams finished with 20 yards on 20 carries (1.0 yards per attempt).

According to head football coach Mike Bobo, a big part of the problem has been the offensive line. Bobo has said on multiple occasions that he wants the guys up front to be more physical, and this week, the offensive-minded HC told the press that the line simply needs to play better.

While the offensive line could certainly help the cause, the staff is also going to have to bite their lips and take the highs and lows that come with Marvin Kinsey. Against SDSU, Kinsey had a season-low six carries for -8 yards but the senior running back didn’t even receive a carry until the 12:19 mark of the second quarter and only got three touches in the second half.

Obviously, there needs to be consequences for turnovers and it was clear that Bobo and Co. were looking to send that message last week. But considering how bleak the passing offense has looked since Collin Hill tore his ACL in Week 3, and how ineffective the other backs have looked in limited opportunities, the offense desperately needs someone like Kinsey to step up and be a playmaker.

So far this season, Kinsey is averaging a career-high 6.4 yards per carry and his four rushing touchdowns matches what he totaled over the previous two years combined. The fumbles have undoubetbly been frustrating, however, his vision in the backfield and skills in the open field have been marvelous. If the Rams are going to have any chance of establishing an offensive identity in the second half of 2019, a heavy dose of Kinsey will likely be crucial.

Get Patrick O’Brien in a rhythm early

Patrick O’Brien had to earn the trust of the coaching staff this week after back-to-back subpar showings but Bobo confirmed to Brian Roth that it will be the Nebraska transfer starting under center Friday night.

Bobo explained that the team needs to a better job of helping out the inexperienced quarterback by making plays around him.  At the end of the day, though, Bobo feels that O’Brien gives his team the best opportunity to win.

“He’s still growing,” Bobo said. “He’s going to make some mistakes but I feel like he gives us the best chance to win the ball game.”

One of the ways that the staff can help out O’Brien, aside from getting the ball to Kinsey as much as possible, will be getting the passing game going in the first quarter. If O’Brien can get an early rhythm and establish some confidence, the defense won’t be able to stack the box against the Rams like they have in each of the past two weeks.

Luckily for O’Brien, the offense should benefit from the likely return of Warren Jackson. The junior wide receiver has been fully cleared after missing two games with a shoulder injury. And with Jackson back in the lineup, O’Brien has a steady number one to rely on out wide.

Stop the option

Everyone that we talked to this week emphasized that if the Rams can stop the run and force UNM to be a passing team, CSU feels like they will in great position to steal a road victory.

Through fives games, the Lobos have averaged a respectable 212.4 rushing yards per game. In the last four, UNM has surpassed 200 rushing yards every time.

Much like Air Force, UNM relies on the obscurity of their offensive approach to catch opposing teams off guard. And while the Lobos do shake things up and run other sets as well, the offense definitely runs best when UNM can lean on the option attack.

Considering CSU has to face the option as much as any D1 team in America, the Rams should be well versed in defending it. Over the years, though, the old school approach has certainly given CSU fits.

Defending the option takes excellent discipline from all 11 players on the defense. If the Rams miss tackles or over-pursue, it could be a really long night for the road team. If they’re able to lock down the Lobos and put themselves in position to attack the quarterback, this is a very winnable game for CSU.

Kickoff and TV info

Location: DreamStyle Stadium (Albuquerque, N.M.)

Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. MT

TV: CBS Sportsnet

Recent history versus UNM

2018: 20-18 (CSU)

2017: 27-24 (CSU)

2016: 49-31 (CSU)

2015: 28-21 (CSU)

2014: 58-20 (CSU)

2013: 66-42 (CSU)

2012: 24-20 (CSU)

2011: 14-10 (CSU)

2010: 38-14 (CSU)