What history tells us to expect from Cale Makar

The Cale Makar hype train is leaving the station. Conductor Joe Sakic asks you to take your seats and hold onto something. This is going to be a wild ride.

Sakic and company dealt Tyson Barrie to the Toronto Maple Leafs on July 1, effectively doubling down on their confidence in the NHL newbie. Following this move, the expectations for Makar are sky high and don’t seem to be coming back to Earth anytime soon, and for good reason.

Wherever Makar has gone, success has followed. He burst onto the 2017 NHL draft scene with 75 points in 54 regular-season games as a member of the Brooks Bandits, making him the number one ranked defenseman in the Alberta Junior Hockey League and the sixth-best point producer overall (the next best defenseman was ranked 30th). He was just as impressive in the post-season, logging 18 points in 13 games en route to an Inter Pipeline Cup Championship.

Makar led all draft-eligible players by a wide margin with 198 net shot attempts and 106 controlled zone exits. His metrics, combined with mesmerizing skating and puck movement, gave Colorado the confidence to take him fourth overall.

The then 18-year-old followed up a reasonable first campaign at the University of Massachusetts (21 points in 34 games) with a season that proved he was NHL ready. As a sophomore, he led all NCAA defensemen with 49 points (one point shy of leading all NCAA players) and ranked second in college hockey with a +33 rating.

He capped off a jaw-dropping season by leading UMass to their first-ever Frozen Four appearance and winning the Hobey Baker Award for the top college player.

His success combined with an unprecedented professional debut led the Avalanche to gamble on a rookie-led NHL blue line. The question remains: can Cale Makar fill the 59-point void created by Tyson Barrie’s departure?

While Makar has defied expectations just about everywhere he’s played, his 20-year-old feet will likely feel small when trying to fill the enormous shoes Barrie left behind.

Barrie’s 2018-19 season ranked seventh in points for all NHL defensemen and fourth on the Avs. His unmatched chemistry with Colorado’s top line and 25 power-play points emphasized the importance of his role. Expecting Makar to replicate all of that is simply unrealistic.

Only nine defensemen in NHL history have topped 59 points in their rookie seasons. Of those nine players, zero are current NHLers. Heck, only 15 defensemen have ever topped 50 points. The best rookie season by a current NHL defenseman is Tyler Myers’s 48-point anomaly in the 2009-10 season.

In the last five years, top-drafted defensemen have capped out at around 45 points in their rookie years and have averaged 20.5 points. Miro Heiskanen, drafted one spot before Makar in 2017, notched 33 points last year with the Stars.

As Avs fans are all too familiar, 2017 Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher put up 44 points in his first year with the Devils. Conversely, Colorado’s 2011 first-round draft pick Duncan Siemens produced just two points in 16 games during his rookie campaign.

Young players often struggle to get used to the speed, skill, and size of the NHL. Tyson Barrie only managed 38 NHL points in his rookie year and bounced between the NHL and AHL before becoming an elite offensive defenseman later in his career. Even Nathan MacKinnon needed time to adjust, as it took him four full seasons before he produced numbers that would label him a superstar.

Makar had a successful playoff run with the Avalanche, to say the least, but his lack of experience showed in various situations.

On this play in Game 5 against the Calgary Flames, Makar was confronted by high-end NHL speed in the form of Johnny Gaudreau. A blocked pass high in the Calgary zone caught Barrie and Makar poorly positioned for a Flames breakout.

The two-game NHL veteran stood between Gaudreau and the Avalanche net before he got caught watching Sean Monahan’s pass and let Gaudreau get a step on him. His mental lapse in positioning led to a penalty shot that would have changed the outcome of the game had Grubauer not made a spectacular save.

In Game 2 against the San Jose Sharks, Makar was tasked with covering Evander Kane as the Sharks cycled in the offensive zone. Makar showed solid positioning and strength to keep Kane from getting in scoring position while the Sharks possessed the puck down low. He even lifted Kane’s stick to keep him uncomfortable.

But as soon as the puck got to the point, Makar jumped out in front of Kane just in time for a Brent Burns wrist shot. The Sharks winger was not only able to tip the shot but also collected his own rebound and slotted one in the back of the net while Makar laid helplessly on the ice.

The fourth overall pick’s playoff performance was nothing short of mesmerizing, and I’m well aware that I’m nitpicking. However, opposing teams will do everything in their power to make things difficult for a rookie defenseman, especially one who commands top minutes. Makar is a potential game-breaker, but he will make rookie mistakes in his first NHL season.

On the other hand, the Avalanche organization is well aware of the risks associated with dishing their most productive defenseman in favor of an unproven 20-year-old. Their belief in Makar should not be taken lightly.

The Calgary native first set himself apart when he propelled a historically underachieving hockey team into the national spotlight. Before he joined the UMass Minutemen, the program had never won a conference title.

With Makar setting school records in points and assists for a defenseman, the Minutemen not only won the Hockey East but also added a first-ever Frozen Four appearance and number one overall ranking to their resume.

Makar led the program’s success but also transformed its culture.

“I’ve been a coach at this level for seven years now and he’s far and away the best player I’ve seen on the ice at this level,” UMass head coach Greg Carvel told ESPN. “If you’re around people who are performing at a high level, it inspires you to do the same. What Cale does on the ice during games and in practice, it inspires me to coach better. When you have a kid of that caliber, I feel a responsibility to be the best coach I can be.”

Makar put an entire program on his back and made the players and coaches around him better. Who’s to say he can’t do the same for the Avs?

Despite his rookie status, Makar’s not your average NHL newcomer. His success while playing in some of the most high-intensity hockey games in the world last year proved that he’s special.

No. 8’s determination in the Stanley Cup Playoffs earned him a goal and five assists in ten games. His 0.6 points per game are tied for the fourth-best playoff performance from a rookie defenseman in the last five years, and were competitive with Tyson Barrie’s dominant 0.67 points per game in the postseason.

Sustaining that level of production would put Makar on pace for just over 49 regular-season points next year, edging out Tyler Myers for the best rookie campaign by a defenseman in recent memory.

From the AJHL to the NCAA to the NHL playoffs, Makar has been a production freak. Joe Sakic is banking on him replicating that unreal production at the NHL level. And while producing 60 points in his first NHL season is extremely unlikely, Makar could just be the guy to do it.