What history tells us the Avalanche could find with the 24th pick

Every year when the dust settles on the playoff races and the draft order starts settling into place, people begin to look at where their team lands and what that pick could mean for the franchise.

For the Avalanche, they find themselves in very uncomfortable territory. With the 24th pick, they are slated to make their lowest selection in the first round since they picked 28th in 2002 (trading a handful of first rounders in key years helped get us here).

The last time the Avs were this far down, they selected Conner Bleackley 23rd in 2014. We all know how that went so let’s just move on.

While the history of a specific pick is more of “the more you know” than instructive on what type of player a team is likely to get, it’s still fun to take a look at the history and see what kind of players have been selected in that draft slot. So, let’s, you know, do that.

I’m going back to 2005 so we can get more of an idea of what those longer careers looked like instead of relying solely on the results of just a couple fleshed out classes.

2019 – Philip Tomasino, Nashville: TBD
2018 – Filip Johansson, Minnesota: TBD
2017 – Kristian Vesalainen, Winnipeg: 5 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 Pt

For this group, it’s simply too early to tell. They all have different roads and different outlooks (Tomasino looks great, Johansson might be a colossal bust, Vesalainen’s circuitous path might have stunted his growth) but to write any of them off at this point would be foolish. It’s just too early.

2016 – Max Jones, Anaheim: 89 GP/10 G/7 A/17 Pts

I could have probably put Jones into the group above and it would’ve been fine but he’s at least played a full season’s worth of games. 12 points in 59 games last year certainly wasn’t the breakout the Ducks were looking for but Jones will at least be a lineup regular for them next year. Whether he sinks or swims is still obviously to be determined but he’ll get every chance to prove himself.

2015 – Travis Konecny, Philadelphia: 299 GP/83 G/ 102 A/ 185 Pts

Here’s our first real player on the list and of course he’s from the historic 2015 class, which is shaping up to be an all-time great group. It’s been a slow build for Konency during his first four years in the NHL but this past season saw him nearly put up a PPG pace with 61 points in 66 games. It was a breakout performance for a Flyers team that is slowly turning the keys over from the Giroux era to Konecny’s generation. He is one of the best players on this list.

2014 – Jared McCann, Vancouver: 310 GP/52 G/71 A/123 Pts

McCann is kind of that in between guy when you’re looking at this list. There are some busts, some very good players, and McCann is sort of in the middle. He’s an effective bottom-six player who provides enough offensive punch to stay in the league and does enough of the little things to get by as a role player. If this was the outcome for the Avalanche, it would be perfectly fine.

2013 – Hunter Shinkaruk, Vancouver: 15 GP/2 G/ 2 A/ 4 Pts

Our first real bust of this list. Shinkaruk was your classic swing-for-the-fences selection on an undersized player who just couldn’t quite round out his game enough to play in a defensive role and whose offensive skills weren’t quite enough to get him into a top-six role. This archetype has become much more popular in recent years with the success of a guy like Alex DeBrincat but while it’s easy to dream on the potential realized, guys like Shinkaruk are the most common outcome.

2012 – Malcolm Subban, Boston: 66 GP

Subban is still in the league but has been strictly a backup, mostly for Vegas but now with Chicago. He hasn’t shown himself to be deserving of a starting position and even as a backup he’s on the lower end of the spectrum. For a goalie, he’s still pretty young and could round out enough to be a solid backup but betting on him to be anything more than that is probably asking too much at this point. Subban is the only goalie on this list.

2011 – Matt Puempel, Ottawa: 87 GP/11 G/5 A/16 Pts

Another busy, Puempel’s game just didn’t translate. He was given a couple looks from different organizations as both the Rangers and Red Wings took a look after Ottawa had given up. He’s a very good AHL player but that just never translated to the NHL and at 27 it feels like AHL opportunities are what he’s looking at moving forward.

2010 – Kevin Hayes, Chicago: 450 GP/115 G/154 A/269 Pts

This is one of the more interesting selections on here. Hayes is a legitimate 2C in the NHL today and nearly signed with Colorado after finishing his college career. But that’s what made him different. He completed all four years of college before hitting free agency, giving the Blackhawks the very rare compensatory selection (24th pick in the second round in 2015). Hayes signed with the Rangers and has been one of the rare college free agents to live up to the hype. This pick took years to come to fruition but this was one of the first round selections that actually worked out for the Blackhawks, albeit not with them.

2009 – Marcus Johansson, Washington: 648 GP/129 G/235 A/364 Pts

Johansson has been more hype than substance in his career but he’s still produced a very respectable run. A forward known for his versatility, Johansson has played all three forward spots and across all four lines throughout his career. That versatility has been more of his trademark than effectiveness but teams love guys like him. You look at J.T. Compher’s career and it’s not hard to find some similarities, though Johansson’s offensive upside was certainly higher in his prime.

2008 – Mattias Tedenby, New Jersey: 120 GP/10 G/20 A/30 Pts

More of a great name than a great player, Tedenby is another of the busts on this list. Another undersized offensive dynamo whose perimter-oriented game couldn’t translate to the NHL, Tedenby has enjoyed a lengthy and productive career in Europe. Not what you’re looking for from a first rounder but hey, good for him.

2007 – Mikael Backlund, Calgary: 690 GP/145 G/220 A/365 Pts

Backlund has carved out a productive career as kind of a Mikko Koivu-Lite. A shutdown center, Backlund developed enough offense to give Calgary a legitimate one-two punch down the middle when they drafted Sean Monahan in 2013 and helped propel the Flames to their current run of mediocrity. Style-wise, Backlund in his prime is precisely the kind of player the current Avalanche could use in the next year or two when Nazem Kadri’s contract runs out.

2006 – Dennis Persson, Buffalo: 0 GP

I was one year removed from graduating high school when Buffalo selected Persson so I won’t pretend to be very familiar with him but he is the only guy on this list to never appear in an NHL game. If you go deep enough down the rabbit hole, you can find threads of Sabres fans patting each other on the back for living through the misery that was apparently Persson’s North American tenure. Not many fond memories of him from those fans.

2005 – T.J. Oshie, St. Louis: 803 GP/238 G/329 A/567 Pts

Arguably the best player on this list, Oshie has been a consistently productive forward in the top six for both St. Louis and Washington. While he’s hit 60 points just once in his career, he’s been a model of consistency in scoring and is the exact type of reliable top-six player the Avalanche are currently searching for to round out their forward corps. Getting a player of this caliber would be a home run for Colorado. He might best be remembered for his shootout performance in the Sochi Olympics. That’s a fun memory for USA Hockey fans.

What did we learn?

As I mentioned earlier, this list doesn’t do more than just provide a glimpse at what has happened in history at the pick. I do find it interesting, however, that only two defensemen were selected on this list. Persson was a complete bust and while it’s still early, Johansson has been nothing short of a disastrous selection for the Wild.

The Avs should absolutely be in the market for a defenseman at this pick but with the way this class is rounding out, it looks unlikely one of good value will be available. Given the pick’s history, maybe that’s a good thing, eh?

Of the 12 forwards selected, it’s a mixed bag of successes and failures. Oshie, Backlund, Johansson, Hayes, and Konecny are undoubtedly great selections. Jones, Vesalainen, and Tomasino still have a chance to be. Shinkaruk, Tedenby, and Puempel were busts.

There isn’t a goaltender rated to be in the conversation for the pick so Subban’s selection stands out on its own.

If we absolutely have to try to draw a strong conclusion from this exercise, it’s that it looks like Colorado has a decent chance to get a meaningful player from the 24th spot.