What history says the Avs could get with the 16th pick

As we continue dipping our toes into the water that is the 2018 NHL Draft, we’ve got a Mock Draft already up there to peruse if you want to see who an early project has the Colorado Avalanche taking with the 16th selection. As we have in the past, we’ll turn our attention to the history of Colorado’s pick to see what kind of prospects can be had in that area.

Now, the history of a selection isn’t always incredibly relevant because you can be the team to buck the historical trend like the Avalanche did with Mikko Rantanen and the tenth overall pick, which had a lengthy history of subpar players and outright busts before the Finnish finisher landed in Denver in 2015.

Just for the sake of some brevity, we’ll use ten years as the cutoff for how far in time we go back and obviously it’s too early to draw strong conclusions from 2016 and 2017 but they’ll be included to satiate the completionist in me.

2017

Calgary Flames – Juuso Valimaki, Defense

It’s not often first round selections look bad just one year later and that holds true with Valimaki. He had a great season for the Tri-City Americans (WHL) and put up 17 points in 12 playoff games. It’s obviously very early but he headlines a very impressive group of blueline prospects for the Flames.

2016

Arizona Coyotes – Jakob Chychrun, Defense

Just 23 players from the 2016 draft class have appeared in NHL games so far and Colorado has two of them (Tyson Jost, Sam Girard). Behind the big stars of the class, Chychrun sits fourth with 118 games played so far. He made the Coyotes in his first training camp and has been competitive in his first two NHL seasons. He averaged over 20 minutes per game last season and is a big piece of their blueline moving forward. If Oliver Ekman-Larsson chooses to leave via free agency in 2019, Chychrun becomes the man on that defense.

2015

New York Islanders – Mathew Barzal, Forward

This is the kind of pick the Avalanche are really hoping for in June. Barzal was widely considered a player who could slip into the top 10 but 2015 ended up being an insanely loaded draft class and he slipped. Him falling outside the top 10 was a mild surprise but getting to 16 was unjustifiable no matter how you slice it, especially with Boston having three picks in a row. Barzal was a highly-touted bantam player who lived up to his potential in the WHL and then did the same in his rookie season. Edmonton traded this pick for Griffin Reinhart, another in a growing list of trades that Peter Chiarelli would love to take back.

2014

Columbus Blue Jackets – Sonny Milano, Forward

This is the first pick we get to that has been a questionable return for the team. Columbus loaded up on forward prospects so they’ve had trouble finding places for all of them (see: Karlsson, William) recently. Milano was drafted with the reputation as a puck wizard who needed to develop his all-around game if he was going to make the NHL. Fast forward to today and he’s…a puck wizard who needs to develop his all-around game if he wants to stick in the NHL. He certainly possesses a ton of talent but he’s long reminded me of Rob Schremp but I think he has a better chance to make it in the NHL.

2013

Buffalo Sabres – Nikita Zadorov, Defense

The Sabres went back-to-back stud defensemen in the 2013 draft. First, they opted for Rasmus Ristolainen eighth overall for the right side and then decided to grab his future partner in Nikita Zadorov for the left side at 16. Their hopes were that Ristolainen would become an impressive offensive force while rounding out his defensive game and to this point Ristolainen has certainly been productive offensively. They also planned for Zadorov to bring a bone-crunching physical presence to the defensive zone in this super-sized pairing. Zadorov took great strides this past season to achieving the vision Buffalo laid out for him…for the Avalanche. #wonthetrade

2012

Washington Capitals – Tom Wilson, Forward

For several years now this pick has looked like the Capitals used a mid-first rounder on a grinder who is known more for his borderline hits than anything else. This year he actually got time on the top line and served as a roaming bodyguard of sorts throughout the Washington lineup and had his best stastical season to date with 35 points. It’s hard not to feel like this is easily one of the worst picks on this list. He’s a great physical presence in the lineup but his all-around game hasn’t shown enough to justify being the 16th player taken.

2011

Buffalo Sabres – Joel Armia, Forward

At this point in his career, Armia is best known for being included in the Tyler Myers-Evander Kane blockbuster trade between Buffalo and Winnipeg from a couple of years ago. While he finally got a consistent chance in Winnipeg this year, it was mostly fourth line minutes. Like Wilson, he just produced a career-high in points (29) but it’s not what you were expecting from a top pick. Maybe Armia is in a position similar to Milano where a change of scenery might be necessary to get the minutes to fulfill his potential but right now he’s looking like a productive bottom-six forward. That’s okay but certainly not what Colorado will be hoping for from their 16th pick. If you’re looking at why Buffalo has struggled so badly over the years, this list is actually doing a decent job illuminating some of their struggles.

2010

St. Louis Blues – Vladimir Tarasenko, Forward

Along with Barzal, this is the other guy that jumps off the list. Tarasenko’s draft history has always been a touch painful for Avalanche fans as the Blues jumped in front of Colorado to take Tarasenko at 16 with the Avalanche looming at 17. The Avs instead took Joey Hishon, a pick we don’t need to rehash in this space. While it’s uncertain whether or not the Avs would have taken Tarasenko, that he went to an eventual division rival in St. Louis makes this pick all the more difficult for Avs fans. He’s fourth in the 2010 draft class in goals scored behind only Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, and Taylor Hall, who were all drafted in the top seven. If Colorado could pull the Tarasenko rabbit out of the hat, they will be in for a very bright future.

2009

Minnesota Wild – Nick Leddy, Defense

This was actually a damn good selection by the Wild, a team that had badly struggled at the draft in their first ten years of trying. The Wild actually got this selection after a draft-day deal with the Islanders that saw the Wild drop from 12 to 16 so the Isles could move up and select Calvin de Haan. It’s funny to think about now given that Leddy ultimately ended up an Islander anyway after the Wild dealt him to Chicago in the extremely ill-advised Cam Barker trade and was ultimately traded by the Blackhawks to the Isles after he proved too good to be affordable for the Cup-winning Blackhawks. Leddy has blossomed into a top-tier defenseman in New York.

2008

Boston Bruins – Joe Colborne, Forward

In the final entry on this list we have a player who has spent his last two seasons in the Colorado organization but is unlikely to play in the NHL again. In the world of trade trees, he’s been involved in a number of deals with draft selections that turned into real players or were used in high profile trades (like the Semyon Varlamov trade to Colorado, for example). At age 28, he’s just finished with his fourth NHL organization as he was drafted by Boston, moved to Toronto, and then later traded to Calgary where he had a career year in 2015-16 before not being given a qualifying offer and hitting the open market. From there he signed with Colorado and we all know the sad story of the former DU Pioneer coming back to Denver. This would not be the route you want to see the Avalanche go with the 16th pick.

Recap!

After looking through this list, you can either get an All-Star forward like Tarasenko, a stud defenseman like Leddy, or a bust like Colborne. So, you know, like every other draft slot out there. The history of the 16th pick is encouraging to see given you don’t think of it as a hot spot for talent. If the Avalanche scout well and make the right call, history is on their side of getting a pretty good player.