What can we learn from the Vikings' QB decisions during George Paton's years with them?

PART ONE OF TWO

As George Paton takes the reins to have final-say authority over the Broncos’ football operations, one question stands above all others under his watch:

What will the Broncos do at quarterback?

There are other pressing matters, of course. There is Von Miller’s contract, which includes a crushing cap figure of $22.125 million. There are expiring contracts for safety Justin Simmons and defensive end Shelby Harris. There are choices to be made regarding cornerback A.J. Bouye and defensive end Jurrell Casey, two players who battled injuries in 2021 and chew up a combined $25.2 million of the 2021 salary cap — but have contracts with no guaranteed money remaining, ensuring that they could be cut with no dead money.

All that takes place in an environment in which the salary cap could be as low as $175 million due to a loss of in-stadium revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Broncos have Lock as a cost-controlled quarterback, two years into his initial NFL contract. But his form last year dictates that the Broncos are unlikely to stand pat in the quarterback room. Although he showed improvement in the season’s final weeks, his passer rating of 75.4 placed him 32nd among 34 quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts.

Do the Broncos bring in a veteran insurance policy in case Lock doesn’t develop? Do they blow up the room completely by trading for a proven veteran starter, perhaps Detroit’s Matthew Stafford? Or, do the Broncos jump into the first-round pool with the No. 9 pick in a draft class that could feature five quarterbacks taken in the first 20 picks?

The history of the Vikings’ quarterback acquisitions in Paton’s 14 seasons in Minnesota could offer some insight.

And the most notable aspect of their quarterback search is this: They’ve used every route imaginable to find their franchise QB.

When Paton joined the team in 2007, general manager Rick Spielman was in his second year on the job. Paton and Spielman worked together in Miami, but the latter left in 2005 after the Dolphins hired Nick Saban as head coach with final-say authority. Paton remained with Miami for Saban’s two seasons before reuniting with Spielman in Minnesota.

At the time Paton joined the Vikings, they were waist-deep in their evaluation of Tarvaris Jackson, a second-round pick in the previous year’s draft.

The Vikings gave Jackson the 2007 campaign. Minnesota finished 8-8 — including an 8-4 record in Jackson’s starts. But Jackson was inconsistent and struggled, finishing 27th among 30 quarterbacks that season with at least 250 attempts.

Sound familiar?

It’s after that season where the story of major quarterback acquisitions for the Vikings during Paton’s years begins.

2008: GUS FREROTTE
How acquired: Free agent

Of all the quarterback scenarios Minnesota faced during Paton’s years with the club, this one is the most analogous to the Broncos’ spot today.

There was a double connection with Frerotte, who was 37 years old when he stepped into the Minnesota huddle in place of Tarvaris Jackson three weeks into the 2008 season. Frerotte had not only been a backup for the Vikings in the 2003 and 2004 seasons, but he played with Miami in 2005 while Paton worked as Miami’s director of pro personnel — meaning that the Dolphins’ pursuit of Frerotte for 2005 was under his watch.

That 2005 season saw Frerotte start 15 games — more than the previous six seasons combined — with the Dolphins winning nine of them. His 18 touchdown passes were a career high. Miami moved on from Frerotte after 2005, opting to sign Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper proved to be a bust, effectively signaling the end of the Saban era as a head coach.

It was little wonder that the Vikings looked to Frerotte when they needed a hedge on Jackson, whose spectacular athletic flashes were undermined by sub-optimal accuracy. But it was a mild surprise that it took just three games before Frerotte was called into service. Minnesota won eight of 11 games after Frerotte stepped in following an 0-2 start, beginning with a season-saving win over a Carolina team that would finish 12-4.

As it turned out, the book wasn’t complete on Jackson. In Week 14, Frerotte suffered a lower-back injury. Jackson stepped in, led the Vikings to a narrow win over the destined-for-0-16 Lions and played the best football of his career down there stretch, throwing 8 touchdown passes against a single interception after replacing Frerotte. Minnesota won two of the three games Jackson started at the end of that year, and gave him the nod for a wild-card game against Philadelphia.

Then Jackson’s inconsistency returned. He completed just 43 percent of his passes in a 26-14 Vikings loss. Weeks later, the Vikings traded for Sage Rosenfels — who, like Frerotte, had played in Miami while Paton was there.

Outcome: Hit. Frerotte’s statistics were modest; he threw more interceptions (15) than touchdowns 12). But he stopped the early-season bleeding and allowed a team built on defense and the Adrian Peterson-powered ground game to play to its strengths. For $2 million in base salary, he proved to be worth the investment.

How it could apply to the Broncos: Signing a 30-something veteran such as Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton would closely resemble this move. The difference would be if Lock starts well, something Jackson failed to do in 2008, pushing Frerotte into the lineup.

With Frerotte, the Vikings enjoyed a season that allowed them to believe they were a quarterback away. That led to …

2009: BRETT FAVRE
How acquired: Free agent

Today, the notion of trying to wring one last hurrah out of a supernova quarterback is as worn as the aging, graying quarterbacks themselves. It worked for the Broncos with Peyton Manning. It’s allowed the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers to end their mind-numbing 12-year streak of missing the playoffs. It helped the Colts return to the postseason with Philip Rivers this past year.

In 2009, it didn’t seem to be a sure thing, especially with Favre coming off of an underwhelming season with the New York Jets the year before after a 16-season run as Green Bay’s franchise quarterback. Favre was headed into his 19th NFL season when the Vikings signed him; prior to 2009, no quarterback had ever thrown at least 200 passes in his 19th NFL season.

Then Favre threw 531 passes and posted the best passer rating of his career.

What’s more, for one season, he changed the type of quarterback he was. For most of his career, Favre defined himself by his reckless abandon. Interceptions that turned coaches’ beards gray and made their scalps bald were part of the package. With the Jets in 2008, Favre threw as many touchdowns as interceptions, flinging 22 apiece.

In 2009 as a Viking, Favre threw just 7 interceptions, compared with 33 touchdown passes — including a 24-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio in Minnesota’s first 11 games. And yet it was an interception that would define Favre’s time in Minnesota — an ill-advised throw into the center of the field as he rolled right on third-and-18 from the New Orleans 38-yard line with under 20 seconds remaining in the NFC Championship Game.

Favre threw 2 picks in that title-game loss after throwing his only touchdown of the game, and they were a sign that the magic was gone.

Just like Johnny Unitas and Dan Marino before him and Peyton Manning five years later, Favre didn’t just hit the career wall, he slammed into it. His completion percentage and touchdown rate dropped; his interception rate soared. By the time his season was done, he had 11 touchdowns and 19 interceptions, the Vikings were headed for a 6-10 finish and coach Brad Childress was fired.

Outcome: Hit. The second act was ugly, but the Vikings got peak Favre for one season — a 12-4 campaign in which they were an overtime away from their first Super Bowl appearance since leisure suits were in vogue.

How it could apply to the Broncos: Although Stafford and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan are neither as accomplished nor as old as Favre was when Minnesota added him, both would represent an instant reshuffling of the deck if they are available via trade.

When the Vikings signed Favre, that immediately pushed potential starter Sage Rosenfels to a reserve role. The same thing would happen to Lock if Stafford (a 13-year veteran) or Ryan (a 14-year vet) walked into UCHealth Training Center.

2011: CHRISTIAN PONDER
How acquired: No. 12 overall pick

The 2011 draft is an all-timer. Twelve of the first 16 picks have been Pro Bowlers. At least four of those 12 players should find themselves fitted for gold jackets someday: Von Miller (No. 2 overall), Patrick Peterson (No. 5), Julio Jones (No. 6) and J.J. Watt (No. 11).

But consider this: Three of the four picks in the first 16 selections who never became Pro Bowlers played the same position: quarterback. In a draft of darlings, 75 percent of the Round 1 passers were duds.

Curiously, the two second-round quarterbacks were successful. Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton (No. 35 overall) started nine seasons for the Bengals, guiding them to five playoff appearances to open his career. San Francisco selected Colin Kaepernick with the following pick; he guided the 49ers to consecutive conference-championship appearances, winning one and taking his team to Super Bowl XLVII.

But the Vikings found themselves with one of the dented cards. They took Ponder, the fourth quarterback off the board.

For the first-round quarterbacks, environment mattered. While Cam Newton was a justified No. 1 pick, the quarterbacks that followed — Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Ponder — needed to be in ideal situations to flourish. Of those three, only Locker went to a team that finished .500 the previous season, but he was doomed by injuries and washed out of the NFL within four years.

What appealed to the Vikings about Ponder compared with the other 2011 quarterback prospects?

“He was the only one who could go through our entire offense without taking a note,” Spielman told The (Minneapolis) Star Tribune in 2012. “It was almost surreal. He didn’t have to take notes, but yet could regurgitate everything back to us.”

Ponder had the mental part down pat. Getting it to translate to the field was another matter.  While he wasn’t bad, throwing 18 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in his second year, he wasn’t spectacular, and benefitted from Peterson becoming one of three running backs in NFL history to rush for at least 2,000 yards and average at least 6.0 yards per carry in the same season. Ponder’s numbers regressed in eight 2013 starts, and by the end of that dispiriting season, Paton, Spielman and the Vikings were in the quarterback hunt once again.

Outcome: Although the Vikings have cycled through quarterbacks at a rapid pace in the last 14 years, they have only one clear miss who came aboard during Paton’s years with the teams. Ponder was it.

Their next first-round quarterback would do better … for a while.

How it could apply to the Broncos: Pick No. 9 could leave the Broncos with the chance to take the third or fourth quarterback off the board. And just like 2011, the second wave of draft quarterbacks all come with questions. That said, the statistical-performance standards of QBs have changed in the last decade, and it seems more likely that a QB taken No. 9 would hit than when the Vikings picked at the No. 12 spot 10 years ago.

Still, it must be noted that a QB at the ninth pick wouldn’t be drafted to sit and watch. Lock would likely become a placeholder unless he pulled off a similar surge to the one Drew Brees had in 2004 for the Chargers after they drafted Philip Rivers.

2014: TEDDY BRIDGEWATER
How acquired: No. 32 overall pick

It was the end of the first round in 2014, and the Louisville prospect was falling. His willingness to squeeze the football into tight windows with precision, placement passing evoked what Broncos fans had been watching with Peyton Manning the previous two years — right down to the fact that Bridgewater wasn’t a fastball thrower compared to some other prospects.

But Bridgewater had a lousy Pro Day workout, which set the draft-pundit class ablaze.

The Vikings didn’t fall for the banana in the tailpipe. When Bridgewater tumbled through the first round, Minnesota moved back in, trading for the No. 32 overall pick to get Bridgewater. That allowed them to have a potential fifth-year option. For a while, it appeared as if the Vikings would exercise it.

Bridgewater got off to an above-average start. His passer rating in his first two seasons was 87.0, placing him 16th among 43 quarterbacks since 2010 in their first two NFL seasons.

A stout defense and Peterson helped carry the Vikings to an NFC North title in 2015,. Bridgewater showed flashes, and in the wild-card round drove the Vikings to what should have been a game-winning field goal in the final two minutes. But Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard attempt, and after a horrific leg injury suffered in a preseason practice the following August, Bridgewater would never start in purple again.

None of the moves that followed might have happened if Bridgewater had remained healthy. We’ll get into those in Part Two.

Outcome: Was headed toward home-run status until Bridgewater’s injury.

How it could apply to the Broncos: If one of the top five quarterbacks in the 2020 draft tumbles, the Broncos could be in position to trade back into Round 1 and pull off the same type of deal the Vikings did for Bridgewater. That said, Round 1 confers “quarterback-of-the-future” status, and would put the pressure on Lock to deliver fast or risk handing the baton.

IN PART TWO: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins