What can the Broncos expect from their compensatory picks?

Hope for the best, but don’t expect much —- unless the Broncos select a specialist.

The three compensatory draft choices awarded by the NFL to the Broncos on Tuesday bolster the back end of their draft. Denver now holds compensatory picks in the fifth round (No. 178 overall) and the seventh round (No. 252 and No. 254).

But unless the Broncos take a punter, kicker or a return specialist with one of those choices, the likelihood of finding an immediate contributor is slim. That’s just the nature of Day 3 compensatory selections, particularly in the fifth round or later.

Consider this: From pick 175 to 256 in the common draft (since 1967), 57 of 117 kickers or punters drafted started at least two years in the NFL (48.7 percent). Forty-four (37.6 percent) were the first-teamers for at least 48 NFL games. Seventeen (14.5 percent) became Pro Bowlers, according to data compiled from pro-football-reference.com.

Compare that to the 717 offensive linemen taken between picks 175 and 256 in the common draft:

• Pro Bowlers: 18 (2.5 percent)
• Two-year starters: 123 (17.2 percent)
• Started at least 48 games: 96 (13.4 percent).

So your chances of finding a three-year starter at offensive line in that range is similar to the odds of finding a Pro Bowl kicker or punter.

Once the trade for A.J. Bouye is executed at the start of the league year, the Broncos will be left with 11 draft picks. Five of them are in the first 95 choices. Five of them are in the last 80, including three in the seventh round, leaving the Broncos with just one choice in the 80 picks in between.

COMP PICKS HAVE BECOME MORE COMMON

In the Mike Shanahan days, compensatory picks were rare. Shanahan wasn’t shy about adding veteran free agents whenever possible, whether they were old skill-position players looking for one last hurrah —- e.g. Andre Reed, Rob Moore and Garrison Hearst — or importing virtually an entire position group from another team, as he did bringing in a horde of ex-Cleveland Browns defensive linemen during the 2005 and 2006 offseason.

Thus, any players lost in free agency were usually canceled out by the ones coming in. The Broncos were awarded just eight compensatory picks from 1994 through 2010.

A series of shaky drafts from 2007 through 2009 meant that the players the Broncos lost to free agency between 2011 and 2013 didn’t net much in the compensatory calculation. That’s why Denver did not have a compensatory pick in the 2012-14 drafts. Of the 19 players drafted by the Broncos from 2007-09, just three got second contracts with the team: left tackle Ryan Clady (who was franchised), safety David Bruton Jr. and defensive tackle Marcus Thomas, who received a one-year contract in 2011 after his rookie deal expired, and was off to the New York Giants after that.

But the compensatory hauls began to grow as the team improved and the Broncos couldn’t keep everyone of value. The Broncos lost 2010 picks Eric Decker and Zane Beadles to free agency in 2014; one year later, they re-signed Demaryius Thomas, their initial first-round pick in 2010, after his contract expired. In spite of being active in free agency in 2014, the Broncos’ losses still netted them a fourth-round choice (which became Max Garcia) and three seventh-rounders in the 2015 compensatory pool.

The 2015 free-agency signing period saw safety Rahim Moore, offensive lineman Orlando Franklin, linebacker Nate Irving and tight end Julius Thomas all depart. Denver’s most prominent free-agent signing that spring was safety Darian Stewart, and the Broncos got their best compensatory haul one year later — third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks. All three of them played out their rookie contracts: safeties Justin Simmons (Round 3) and Will Parks (Round 6) and running back Devontae Booker (Round 4).

The three compensatory picks the Broncos received will take their compensatory haul under John Elway to 15. Denver has averaged 2.5 compensatory picks per draft in the last five years. Some of that is due to good drafting; some is due to letting short-contract veterans and undrafted signees move on after their contracts expire. Last year, three draft picks — Max Garcia, Matt Paradis and Bradley Roby — departed in free agency. Denver also lost undrafted pickup Shaquil Barrett, waiver claim Billy Turner and veteran cornerback Tramaine Brock, who was on a one-year contract.

The result is that the Broncos have gone from a team that ranked near the bottom in compensatory picks heading into the 2010s to one that is in the middle of the pack — 17th of 32 teams, with 24 all-time compensatory picks.

BRONCOS COMP-PICK SUPERLATIVES

BEST PICK:

Justin Simmons, 2016

When you consider that the Broncos lost Rahim Moore in 2015 free agency and then a year later selected Simmons with a compensatory pick, you see the value that comes with these choices — especially at the end of the third round.

Little more needs to be said about Simmons than what has already been written over the last few months at DNVR. A promising young safety in his first three seasons, he took the step toward the elite after Vic Fangio arrived, unlocking his potential. The symbiotic relationship led to a second-team All-Pro selection. Even if the Broncos cannot re-sign Simmons, he should be given a franchise tag, which has led to a multi-year contract every time the Broncos bestowed it.

BEST VALUE:

Trevor Siemian, 2015

Consider this:

SEVENTY-FIVE! quarterbacks have been drafted in the seventh round in the common-draft era, beginning in 1967. Siemian ranks fifth in yardage (5,689), seventh in touchdown passes (30) and fourth in passer rating among those with at least 50 attempts (79.6). Seventh-round quarterbacks are lottery tickets, and compensatory-pick QBs like Bradlee Van Pelt (2004) and Chad Kelly (2018) outnumber players as productive as Siemian by a substantial margin.

Denver didn’t hit the jackpot with Siemian. But all things considered, the club got five out of six numbers from that lottery ticket. Not bad.

Right behind Siemian is 2016 sixth-rounder Will Parks, who played out his rookie contract with the Broncos as a valuable and versatile defensive back and special-teams contributor.

The Broncos have been awarded 13 compensatory picks in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. Siemian and Parks are the only two selections from those 13 choices to play more than three regular-season games for Denver.

WORST PICK:

Maurice Clarett, 2005, No. 101 overall.

There were red flags around Clarett going into the draft. Eligibility snafus and a failed bid to be in the draft process just two years after his high-school graduation meant that he went through the NFL Combine twice — in 2004 and 2005. He showed up out of shape for the 2005 Combine and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds, according to pro-football-reference.com.

The Broncos took him anyway. The next two running backs off the board — Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber III — were successes in the NFL, although Barber is probably best remembered in Denver for inexplicably stepping out of bounds late in a 2011 game against the Broncos while he was with the Bears, giving Tim Tebow and the Broncos enough time to stage a last-gasp drive to a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation.

Fortunately for Clarett, he rebuilt his life after spending three and a half years in prison. He is now a successful motivational speaker, a published author and runs two behavioral-health centers in Ohio.

WORST VALUE:

Clarett. When you use a third-round choice on someone who doesn’t even play a preseason snap, let alone a regular-season one, that’s as bad a swing and a miss as you’ll get.

A close second is Brendan Langley, selected by the Broncos with the 101st pick in 2017. The final pick of a disastrous Day 2 that opened with occasional contributor DeMarcus Walker and maligned wide receiver Carlos Henderson, Langley struggled as a rookie, was waived at the final cutdown a year later and then moved to wide receiver in 2019 in a last-ditch attempt to salvage some value.

The next two defensive backs off the board made the pick worse. Ten picks after the Broncos took Langley, Seattle selected ex-CU Buffs safety Tedric Thompson, who has started 16 games over the last two seasons and delivered solid play despite battling injuries. One spot after Thompson, the Bears selected Eddie Jackson, a two-time Pro Bowler who was an All-Pro in 2018.

Both Langley and Clarett were taken at pick 101. Fortunately for the Broncos, they do not hold that choice this year.

DENVER’S ALL-TIME COMPENSATORY PICKS

1999

• Round 5, overall pick 167: CB Darwin Brown, Texas Tech
• Round 6, overall pick 204: WR Chad Plummer, Cincinnati

2000

• Round 7, pick 246: WR Leroy Fields, Jackson State

2004

• Round 7, overall pick 247: FB Brandon Miree, Pitt
• Round 7, overall pick 250: QB Bradlee Van Pelt, Colorado State

2005

• Round 3, overall pick 97: CB Domonique Foxworth, Maryland
• Round 3, overall pick 101: RB Maurice Clarett, Ohio State

2006

• Round 4, overall pick 130: WR/KR Domenik Hixon, Akron

2011

• Round 7, overall pick 247: Edge rusher Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma

2015

• Round 4, overall pick 133: G/C Max Garcia, Florida
• Round 7, overall pick 250: QB Trevor Siemian, Northwestern
• Round 7, overall pick 251: CB Taurean Nixon, Tulane
• Round 7, overall pick 252: S Josh Furman, Oklahoma State

2016

• Round 3, overall pick 98: S Justin Simmons, Boston College
• Round 4, overall pick 136: RB Devontae Booker, Utah
• Round 6, overall pick 219: S Will Parks, Arizona

2017

• Round 3, overall pick 101: CB Brendan Langley, Lamar
• Round 5, overall pick 177: TRADED TO SAN FRANCISCO
• Round 7, overall pick 252: TRADED TO CLEVELAND
• Round 7, overall pick 253: Chad Kelly, Mississippi

2018

• Round 3, overall pick 99: Isaac Yiadom, Boston College

Note: Trades of compensatory picks began in 2017. The Broncos traded for a Round 6 compensatory pick (No. 217 overall) in 2018 and selected LB Keishawn Bierria.