What can Drew Lock's recent performances and trends tell us about his future?

Coming off of his first career start one year ago this week, Drew Lock was the talk of Denver at this time last year, just as he is now. The reasons are different.

Most of the current discussion drowns in the micro considerations of contact tracing, on-site QB meetings in the middle of intensive protocols and just how long and how frequently were masks removed.

But what has more long-term relevance is where Lock stands compared with other quarterbacks at similar junctures in their careers — particularly in the last decade. In that range, statistical comparisons becomes relatively reasonable, even as the standards for success as an NFL quarterback continue rising.

First, let’s look at the numbers through 13 starts, and how they compare among the 51 quarterbacks who made their first 13 career starts since 2010.

• Passer rating: 75.7, 39th of 51
• Completion percentage: 58.7, 32nd of 51
• Yards per attempt: 6.57, 38th of 51
• Touchdown rate: 1 every 30.3 attempts, 36th
• Interception rate: 1 every 30.3 attempts, 38th
• Touchdown/interception margin: Even, T-37th

(All research and comparisons were done via pro-football-reference.com.)

The rating alone puts him in the realm where the misses outnumber the hits. The quarterbacks with ratings between 80.0 and 70.0 in their first 13 starts since 2010 include:

• Kirk Cousins, 79.8
• Case Keenum, 79.6
• Christian Ponder, 79.2
• Sam Bradford, 79.1
• Derek Carr, 78.3
• Jared Goff, 77.6
• Sam Darnold, 77.6
• Mitchell Trubisky, 77.5
• Tim Tebow, 77.1
• Colt McCoy, 76.3
• Drew Lock, 75.7
• Jake Locker, 75.4
• Andrew Luck, 74.5
• Brandon Weeden, 72.8
• Ryan Tannehill, 72.5
• Josh Allen, 71.4

Of those 15 quarterbacks other than Lock, six of them — 40 percent — became clear franchise quarterbacks: Cousins, Carr, Goff, Luck, Tannehill, Allen. On two others, the jury is out, although current trends don’t favor them (Darnold and Trubisky). The other seven (Keenum, Ponder, Bradford, Tebow, McCoy, Locker, Weeden) became fringe starters or backup-caliber passers.

However, the more illuminating numbers — which are also more worrisome — rest in the comparison of Lock’s first six starts with his next seven. The problem for Lock right now is that the trend lines are in the wrong direction.

Let’s start with passer rating — and, specifically, let’s compare him with a cluster of quarterbacks in the same rating range as Lock in their first six starts.

Lock posted a passer rating of 90.6 in those six games. His rating in the last seven games is 63.6. Further, his production is down nearly across the board when comparing his last seven starts with his first six.

• His completion percentage is off by 10.5 percentage points.
• His interception rate has worsened from one every 63.0 passes to one every 21.4.
• His touchdown rate has declined from one every 23.6 attempts to one every 39.2 — a figure that would be worse without the flurry of late scores against the Chargers and Falcons.

But let’s return to the rating that reflects a compilation of those numbers.

In the last 10 years, 21 other quarterbacks posted a rating of between 80.0 and 99.9 in their first six starts.

The two most improved quarterbacks in starts 7 through 13 in that group based on passer rating were Seattle’s Russell Wilson (up 17.2 rating points) and B Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (up 12.2 rating points). In both cases, those improvements augured future success; Jackson became an MVP and Wilson has a Super Bowl ring and a firm place in the game’s elite.

But more than half of those 21 quarterbacks — 11 in total — saw their passer ratings decline by at least 5.0 rating points in starts 7 through 13 (quarterbacks who played for the Broncos at some point in bold).

• Drew Stanton: down 7.7 points (81.9 to 74.2)
• Colin Kaepernick: down 9.0 points (97.4 to 88.4)
• Sam Darnold: down 10.7 points (83.7 to 73.0)
• Case Keenum: down 12.6 points (86.1 to 73.5)
• Trevor Siemian: down 12.8 points (91.8 to 79.0)
• Brock Osweiler: down 14.6 points (88.9 to 74.3)
• Nick Mullens: down 14.8 points (96.0 to 81.2)
• Kyle Allen: down 15.5 points (91.8 to 76.3)
• Jake Locker: down 16.7 points (84.5 to 67.8)
• Carson Wentz: down 19.1 points (92.7 to 73.6)
• Colt McCoy: down 25.6 points (93.0 to 67.4)

And Lock’s rating drop-off is bigger than any of them: down 27.0 points in starts 7 through 13 compared with his first six starts.

There are few things to note about that list.

First, of course, are the ample Broncos connections in the form of Keenum, Siemian and Osweiler. Although none of Keenum’s starts with Denver factored into this sampling, that early trend served as an indicator that Keenum’s long-term viability and ceiling was low.

Second, even the ones who became clear, multi-year starters eventually struggled. Kaepernick’s decline was gradual over the years that followed the 49ers’ deep playoff runs of 2012 and 2013. Wentz had a slight drop-off in his fourth season (2019) before this year’s plunge. Given the trends of other passers on this list, it is fair to ponder whether this early trend portended future struggles.

Of further note is Lock’s completion percentage in his last seven starts: just 54.0 percent. Drops haven’t helped, in Lock’s last seven starts, one of every 11.6 catchable passes was dropped. But even if the Broncos had a league-average drop rate (one every 14.6 catchable passes, per Pro Football Focus), Lock’s completion percentage in his last seven starts would be 55.6.

These are the quarterbacks since 2010 whose completion percentages in starts 7-13 were below 56.0:

• Tim Tebow, 49.3
• Geno Smith, 50.6
• Drew Stanton, 53.7
• Jake Locker, 53.8
• Blake Bortles, 53.9
• Drew Lock, 54.0 (55.6 with a normal drop rate)
• Blaine Gabbert, 54.3
• Colt McCoy, 54.4
• Josh Rosen, 54.6
• Ryan Tannehill, 55.1
• John Skelton, 55.1
• DeShone Kizer, 55.4

As with the previous list, the misses far outnumber the hits.

That said, Lock’s most recent performance, the rally against the Chargers and the Broncos’ improved per-game scoring output in Lock’s starts compared with those that preceded him last year offers hope.

The eventual development of Tannehill — a quarterback with some similar athletic traits to Lock — also reveals a path forward. Lock has the opportunity to write a similar comeback story.

But the next five games will be crucial for determining whether Lock gets the chance to be the exception compared with other quarterbacks who had similar trend lines.