What are some things to watch as we await the Broncos' schedule?

Late Thursday afternoon Mountain time, the Broncos and the other 31 NFL teams will know their 2020 schedule. What neither they nor anyone else without a time-traveling DeLorean will know is whether all of the games will be played as scheduled.

But let’s exist in a world where the games are played as scheduled — with or without fans in the stands, but in the venues in which they are scheduled.

What are some things to keep an eye on?

GAMES IN CLUSTERS?

Playing all of the inter-conference matchups and in the intra-divisional games in the same weeks is a way to accomplish this. They don’t have to be together — e.g. six straight divisional games to close the season — but the schedule can be arranged like Week 17 to where six weeks have nothing but divisional clashes.

The inter-conference matchups could be logical choices to lop off the schedule if the season is forced to start later than expected or is shortened, since these games do not come into play for intra-conference tiebreakers.

But inter-conference games do matter for tiebreakers within the division, as the common-opponent tiebreaker comes before intra-conference games to break deadlocks in the standings.

Thus, to break divisional ties, the least important games on the schedule are the games against opponents from the AFC South and AFC North, since none of those will factor into potential common-opponent tiebreakers with the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders.

By this logic, the two most expendable games on the Broncos schedule would be the ones against the Titans and at Pittsburgh.

Another factor that comes into play is that Tennessee and the Steelers are automatically on the schedule once every three years because of the schedule rotation, while there is no other opportunity to face NFC South clubs in the regular season beyond once every four years when they rotate onto AFC West teams’ schedules. Thus, if you’re going to have to cut two games, it’s best to cut there, lest you run an increased risk of losing the Broncos’ matchups with teams guided by Tom Brady and Drew Brees that highlight the slate.

YOU’D PREFER TO OPEN AT HOME RATHER THAN ON THE ROAD

Last year’s Monday night regular-season lid-lifter in Oakland marked the Broncos’ first Week 1 road game since a 24-17 loss at Jacksonville in 2010. That game against the Jaguars was the Broncos’ sixth consecutive Week 1 game on the road, followed a 19-year stretch in which the Broncos opened at home 15 times, including six in a row from 1994-99.

Over the course of their history, the Broncos are 9-13 when opening the regular season on the road, compared with 30-7-1 in openers that take place at home — including seven wins in succession from 2012-18. The Broncos are 10-1 in Week 1 home openers at Empower Field at Mile High.

That said, the pressure would be on from the outset if Denver opens at home. Week 1 home defeats have not augured well for the Broncos. In the eight seasons in which they dropped a Week 1 game in Denver, they finished with just one winning season — a modest 7-6-1 finish in 1974 that followed a 17-10 Week 1 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams.

GETTING A BREAK WITH THE HOME GAMES

The eight Broncos home opponents had a .531 winning percentage last year, compared with .492 for their eight road foes.

But taking it deeper based on projections for this year, the Broncos catch a bigger break by getting the Brady-led Buccaneers at home, while facing the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.

The Patriots game should be winnable anywhere, while the Broncos’ chances against Brady and the Bucs are enhanced in Denver, especially given their 7-4 record at home against Brady-led teams, including the postseason. (Denver is 2-4 when facing Brady-led clubs on the road.)

One significant break given the Broncos in the scheduling rotation is having the Bills visit Denver. The Broncos have lost three consecutive games in Buffalo by a combined 86-33 margin — an average score of 29-11 — and are 4-1 against the Bills at home since the AFL-NFL merger. The Broncos are 7-10 in Buffalo since the merger, including 3-7 since 1990.