Week 1 Fantasy Stats and Starts: New Jaguars better for Fantasy?

Every week, numbers savant Rocket Haverland will bring you his most telling stats related to fantasy football, breaking down the most intriguing matchups, Daily Fantasy Starters (better known as DFS), and streaming options at a position each week.

Matchup of the week

Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey

Going into the week there’s no scarier wide receiver matchup than the one that the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 1 target, Amari Cooper, will face when he goes up against star cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Jalen Ramsey vs. WR1 fantasy output (PPR)

(Jacksonville) 

Week 1 - Tyreek Hill 5’10’’ (4.1) average (15.8) -74% 

Week 2 - DeAndre Hopkins 6’1’’ (9) average (18.1) -50%

Week 3 - Corey Davis 6’3’’ (7.4) average (7.7) -4%

(Rams)

Week 7 - Julio Jones 6’3’’ (15.3) average (18.5) -17%

Week 8 - Tyler Boyd 6’2’’(12.8) average (14.1) -9%

Week 10 - Juju Smith-Schuster 6’1’’(8.4) average (9.9) -15%

Week 11 - Allen Robinson 6’3’’ (5.5) average (16) -66%

Week 12 - Marquise Brown 5’9’’(21.2) average (10.5) +102%

Week 13 - Christian Kirk 5’11’’ (5.3) average (13) -59%

Week 14 - Tyler Lockett 5’10’’ (8.3) average (14.7) -43%

Week 15 - Amari Cooper 6’1’’ (2.9) average (15.5) -81%

Week 16 - Emanuel Sanders 5’11’’ (9.1) average (11.4) -20%

Week 17 - Christian Kirk 5’11’’ (13.3) average (13) +2%

No. 1 wide receivers that faced Ramsey had a 25-percent decline in their fantasy production last year. More importantly, taller wide receivers (anyone over 6-foot-1) had a 34-percent decline in production. You should be apprehensive about playing a wide receiver that is the number one target on his team against the Rams. Ramsey has shut out even the best such as Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, and Amari Cooper. Unless your wide receiver is small and fast, or a true star like Hopkins, Julio, or Thomas, you would be wise to bench that wide receiver. 

Amari Cooper Under 10 Point Games 

Week 4 - NO (9.8) Marshon Lattimore

Week 6 - NYJ (1.3) Trumaine Johnson

Week 11 - DET (6.8) Darius Slay

Week 12 - NE (1) Stephon Gillmore

Week 15 - LAR (2.9) Jalen Ramsey

Week 16 - PHI (6.4) Avonte Maddox

Amari Cooper is known to go cold often and put up garbage fantasy performances. Above, we tracked every under-10-point (PPR) performance and recorded which corner he went against. Those corners included Marshon Lattimore, Darius Slay, Stephon Gillmore, and Jalen Ramsey. When Cooper went up against top tier cornerbacks he often struggled. His biggest weeks were against the Giants, Dolphins, Packers, Vikings, and Bears, all teams dealing with secondary issues throughout last year. Consider benching Cooper if you have viable alternatives like Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, or Brandin Cooks on the bench. 

WR Start of the Week

D.J. Chark vs. IND

The game between the Jaguars and Colts is going to be a great game for fantasy points. Many people think that the Colts’ defense will be good against this year’s Jaguars team, but the Jaguars offense, in my opinion, will score plenty of points through the air against the Colts.  

Last year the Colts came in second for opponent rushing touchdown percentage, which means teams rarely scored rushing touchdowns on them. However, they were fourth-to-last on opponent touchdown passing percentage, which means they gave up a considerable amount of touchdowns in the air. On the other hand, the Jaguars were first in passing touchdown percentage but last in rushing touchdown percentage last year. This means if the Jaguars are passing the ball, they’ll score. 

With starting running back Leonard Fournette gone, the team has essentially given the ball to Gardner Minshew who will put that ball straight into the hands of Chark, his number one target. 

In PPR, the clear number one target on the opponent facing the Colts scored (26.3, 26.8, 13.3, 12, 25.6, 11.9, 30.4, 27.4, 18.1, 30.8, and 7.4) an average of 19 points per game last year. Indianapolis does not have a great No. 1 cornerback, which will allow Minshew to funnel targets toward Chark, even if he’s the only receiving threat on the team.  

TE Start of the Week

Hayden Hurst vs. SEA

Hayden Hurst is starting in just 35 percent of leagues (ESPN), behind players like Noah Fant, Jared Cook, and Rob Gronkowski. Fant is a tremendous talent but to start the year, many teams will end up leaning more heavily on the run and Denver should be one of those. With a new offensive system and their two star running back crutches.

The Falcons, however, have proven to be a team that relies on the pass early in the season. Last year, Matt Ryan started the year with six straight 300-yard games and threw an average of 2.5 touchdowns in those games. That’s in contrast to the 1.1 touchdowns per game he scored the rest of the season. 

Atlanta is playing Seattle, a team that has faltered covering the tight end position almost every season despite having top-level safeties. How Jamal Adams factors into that will be interesting. However, the Seahawks gave up the fourth-most points to the tight ends and, even more predictably, the second-most yards to tight ends from game to game. Hayden Hurst is a safe fantasy start and someone you can guarantee a minimum of 50 yards and the potential for a 20-point game. 

QB Stream of the Week

Gardner Minshew vs IND

Yes, I know what you’re thinking, I have now given you three Jaguars players as my starts and streams of the week.  

I truly believe that Jacksonville will surprise people in Week 1 against the Colts. This new offense, after cutting Fournette, is built to win through the air. Their best running back, Chris Thompson, is a pass-catcher which will only be an added bonus to their passing game. That should be even more true in 2020, as we don’t foresee Ryquell Armstead getting force-fed first-down carries like Fournette did. 

Fournette averaged 4.3 yards per run in 2019. He would grind out long possessions, just to end drives with field goals or punts. The weighted offensive efficiency because of this game plan was fifth to last in the NFL. It kept games neck-and-neck and even gave them the comeback win against the Broncos, but was not good for fantasy teams. 

Minshew is only on 15-percent of rosters in ESPN leagues, making him a strong option in two-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS quarterback. 

Kicker Stream of the Week

Josh Lambo vs. IND

Although Josh Lambo is rostered in only 8 percent of leagues this year (ESPN), he finished in sixth place among kickers last year. 

Playing against Indianapolis last year with Nick Foles starting at quarterback, Lambo only scored one point but when paired with Minshew in the second game of the year, he scored 16. 

While Indianapolis is widely considered to have a good defense overall, upon closer inspection, one will realize their defense gave up a lot of fantasy points to the kickers. Kickers scored the 9th-most points against Indianapolis last season due to the team’s inefficiency to stop air yards making Lambo a healthy candidate to outplay his kicker 26 ranking going into the week.

DraftKings Line Up of the Week

QB – G. Minshew II

RB – J. Jacobs

RB – T. Gurley

WR – A. Thielen

WR – A. Robinson

WR – D. Chark

TE – H. Hurst

FLEX – M. Ingram

DST – Dolphins

Starts 

• Josh Lambo ESPN predicted finish K 26 
• DJ Chark ESPN predicted finish WR 24 
• Hayden Hurst ESPN predicted finish TE 13 
• Gardner Minshew ESPN predicted finish QB 25

Sits

• Noah Fant ESPN predicted finish TE 9
• Amari Cooper ESPN predicted finish WR 23