Walt Weiss is the right man to manage the Colorado Rockies in 2017

 

[Elite_video_player id=”9″]

While BSN Denver has made out opinions on Walt Weiss clear on a number of podcasts and all over social media, it only feels fair to put the whole thing down in writing so anyone who wishes can reference and/or ignore the context of this argument here as well.

So, without further ado, here are the reasons why Jeff Bridich and the Colorado Rockies should strongly consider bringing back their current manager for 2017.

Managers in baseball aren’t that important

Perhaps the one thing in baseball in which there is near universal consensus among the analytic community and the less-math-inclined is that managers don’t really make that big of a difference in the win column. Dusty Baker and Robin Yount would never be confused for brilliant tacticians yet they’ve become mainstays in the postseason.

There are a number of different methodologies, but for those who prefer measurements, the average of claims suggest that a good manager can be about +3 WAR and vice versa. In other words, even if we accept the premise that Weiss is as bad as it gets (he isn’t) at worst he has cost the Rockies three games. At the absolute most — if you were to replace the worst manager in baseball with the best — you could improve by six wins.

Baseball is not like football or even basketball where games often come down to individual plays that the head coaches have to select. The players (especially individual pitchers) have far more control over the proceedings than do the manager. They set things up. A shift here, a bullpen matchup there, but for the most part, game strategy is decided upon ahead of time as a collective effort.

Bullpen problems are not his

Baseball managers are there literally to “manage” a 25 man roster. Who is feeling a bit under the weather or banged up today? Whose skill set makes for a good matchup against that day’s pitcher? How do you handle the sometimes fragile egos and babyfaced youths over the course of a mentally exhausting 162 game season?

In 2016, measuring a manager based solely on bullpen moves and performance makes as much sense as blaming a high school teacher for having rowdy students. Sure, there is a little something they can do about it but ultimately we are looking at powers far beyond their control.

Weiss neither assembled this bullpen nor does he pitch out of it every night. If he was trying the same things over and over again, the criticisms here would make more sense, but the complete and utter failure of the ‘pen in 2016 is all the evidence you need that there is nothing Weiss could have done.

Literally every player in that bullpen, including Adam Ottavino who gave up a game-losing grand slam to someone named Andrew Toles, has cost the Rockies a game at some point. All a manager can do is play the odds based on what his GM has put together. The failures of this ‘pen are so complete it’s hard to chalk them up to “well if they had only used them differently.”

Jake McGee, Chad Qualls, Jason Motte and on down found failure no matter the situation they were placed in. It was never a matter of not pressing the right buttons. It was a matter of not having the right buttons to press. And that isn’t Weiss’ job.

Cost vs. results: Who else is available?

But even if you don’t agree with a single word in this article so far, the real question is what the Rockies could pragmatically do to improve the manager situation.

Starting at the top, Bruce Bochy, Joe Maddon, and Mike Soscia all make $5 million and all have pretty steady gigs. Prying Terry Francona away from the Cleveland Indians would likely cost something similar. Same thing with Joe Girardi. The difference between what it will cost to bring Weiss back and getting an elite manager is approximately one Mark Reynolds.

A big part of the problem with suggesting the Rockies move on from Weiss is that there is no clear place to move to and any move is going to cost you more money. For a team paying Jose Reyes $22 million there is already very little room in the budget to add, and as we’ve already discussed, we would rather see that money spent on improving the bullpen.

And, of course, the less money the Rockies spend, the less confident they can feel that they are actually making an improvement. Also, letting someone walk after a roughly 11-win improvement isn’t exactly the best way to make yourself an attractive option to an outsider. Sure, the Rockies could try to split the difference and spend $2-3M to upgrade but even that money could be more wisely spent on roster depth.

New rule: If you’re going to suggest moving on from Weiss, you’ve got to name a replacement and find room for him in the budget.

Showing improvements/Willingness to adjust

Perhaps the most underrated aspect of this conversation is the willingness by so many to ignore that Walt Weiss has improved every year of his managerial tenure. But it isn’t the improvements themselves that should inspire confidence, it is the underlying reason behind why they were even possible.

Many managers and coaches are set in their ways. They have their system and they run it how they want. Weiss has shown himself to be more malleable, which means he listens to input and feedback from everyone from his GM, to the guys in the analytics office, to his players.

A willingness to learn and adapt is a rare commodity among men in these kinds authority positions and is a big reason behind why so many young players have excelled on Weiss’ watch. It also means that the upward trend is likely to continue.

Faith and confidence from players

A common argument I’ve seen once this has all been laid out is that there still must be some ambiguous way in which Weiss doesn’t have his players “ready” and that is why they’ve dropped so many close games or blown them late. But that theory is both contingent upon largely unprovable claims and flies in the face of every piece of tangible evidence that BSN Denver has accrued.

Both on and off the record, players have nothing but praise for Weiss as a man and a manager. They respect his honesty in dealing with them, his perspective as a former Colorado Rockie who had to deal with this crazy environment as a player himself, and as someone who is willing to work with them and even admit when the fault was his own.

Catcher Nick Hundley points out that while the team has had more than its fair share of tough close losses, they always bounce back oftentimes against the best competition in the world.

“We don’t stop,” he says. “I think that’s a testament to Walt and what he expects out of us and how all the guys in this clubhouse respect him and love playing for him. We go out there and we battle no matter if we had a tough loss or we’ve won five in a row.”

It’s intellectually inconsistent to give Walt Weiss all of the blame for bad losses often engineered by individual player and then turn around and give him zero credit for the team’s impressive record against division leaders. Especially when you consider the 12 rookies on his roster.

Could the Rockies do better than Weiss to lead this team into the contention window? Theoretically, sure. But would the cost both in terms of actual money and in terms of upsetting the clubhouse chemistry be worth it?

That is the question the Rockies need to ask themselves because unless the Monforts are willing to increase payroll, every dime spent this offseason will be precious.

But the most salient point is this: If Walt Weiss had been given a bullpen with just two reliable arms for a full season, the Rockies would be right the Wild Card chase. The finances make it so that they can’t afford to make dramatic improvements at both spots. So, maybe before the Rockies go out looking for a brand new designer quiver, they should restock their arrows.