Vic Fangio made the case to keep his job, but if he stays, he will have to beat the odds to succeed

For Vic Fangio, his future as a head coach may not come down to the sort of dramatic meeting with a person in high authority that one would script for “The Crown.” He said Wednesday that he did not have a meeting scheduled with Broncos president/CEO Joe Ellis or general manager George Paton, but that he has “multiple” conversations with Paton on a daily basis.

But if it comes down to Fangio having to make the case for getting a fourth season despite three consecutive losing records, he wanted to lean on the growth his team demonstrated before its recent plummet towards mediocrity.

“I do believe this team has made progress,” Fangio said on a Zoom teleconference with Denver-area media Wednesday. “We got it to 6-5. We lost three tough games against teams that are going to make the playoffs. A play here and there, a better call here and there, and maybe we get over the hump there and we’re still in the hunt now.

“And then last week, we’ve got to be able to go play with what we’ve got, but we did have a depleted roster last week.”

There are excuses and there are reasons, and sometimes it can be difficult to discern between the two.

“You know, I’m not one to campaign publicly, but I was asked that question, so I gave that answer recently that you alluded to, but I’d really rather have those discussions with George [Paton] and Joe [Ellis],” Fangio said.

The Broncos are headed towards their third consecutive losing season on Fangio’s watch. If they lose Saturday — and the Broncos are a whopping 10.5-point underdog as of Wednesday night, per DraftKings Sportsbook — then they will have their second season with double-digit losses on Fangio’s watch.

He is the first Broncos coach in a half-century — since Lou Saban (1967-71) — to have three losing seasons. By comparison, the late Ring of Famer Dan Reeves had two losing seasons in 12 years, while fellow Ring of Famer Mike Shanahan had two sub-.500 seasons in 14 years on the job.

The case for keeping Fangio revolves around the performance of the defense. Denver ranks third in points allowed, is first in touchdowns allowed by the defense (tied with New England), sixth in first-down rate (one allowed every 3.63 plays), seventh in adjusted points per possession allowed (1.93) and ninth in total defense.

But other indicators are less positive. Denver ranks 16th in yards allowed per play, 18th in yards allowed per pass play, 13th in yards allowed per run and 13th in expected points added per play, per RBSDM.com. The Broncos are also 21st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which weighs plays relative to situation and opponent quality.

Then, there is the Broncos’ offensive production.

Since 2019, the Broncos are tied for the league lead in games scoring fewer than 17 points, having done so 24 times. They share that dubious distinction with the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Against teams that are 4-12 or worse this season, the Broncos offense has accounted for 28.5 points per game. Against everyone else, it has scored 15.8 points an outing, including just 12.0 points a week during their current three-game losing streak.

Finally, there are the historic trends for coaches who open their tenures with three consecutive losing seasons. Simply put, history has not been kind — particularly in the 21st century.

Fangio is the 14th coach to open his tenure with three consecutive losing seasons since 2000. Eight of them were dismissed right after the third losing season. Of the five who were retained, three were dismissed during their fourth season on the job. One — Dom Capers with then-expansion Houston — was dismissed after a 2-14 fourth season, which Fangio experienced as Capers’ defensive coordinator. The other, Jeff Fisher, made it to a fifth season with the St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams, but was let go after starting his fifth season 4-9.

Since the AFL-NFL merger, Fangio is the 32nd coach to complete three losing seasons in his first three years on the job. Eighteen kept their jobs for Year 4. Of those 18, just three — John McKay (Tampa Bay, 1976-84), Bart Starr (Green Bay, 1975-83) and Bill Belichick (Cleveland, 1991-95) eventually took their team to the postseason. But none of them had a winning record with those teams in Year 4 and beyond; the best of those was Belichick, whose Browns went 16-16 in his fourth and fifth seasons before his dismissal.

Could Fangio get the Broncos rolling if the team retains him? Certainly — especially if quarterback is upgraded. But if all things are equal, he would need to beat massive odds to do so.