Vegas’ numbers against the spread, Week 2 lines

 

After our part one in which we analyzed our new model, using Vegas’ own over/under numbers against itself, it’s time to put them to good use against the Week 2 spreads.

In Week 1, this metric was 11-4-1 against the spread, more importantly, in games in which our suggested spread had a difference of two or more points we went 4-1-1. Which will be the numbers we’re focusing on here in this analysis.

This metric is a very accurate predictor of the line and not just which spreads to bet on. It is so accurate in this regard, that there are only four games with a divergence of over two points, between our suggested line and the MyBookie.ag spread.

There’s always time for action to shift a spread one way or another, so stay tuned to our various social media outlets and website for updates on particularly juicy line movements. We’re teasing some of those potentially appealing lines in our “stay tuned” section here.

That said, here’s what we found to be some of the better spreads for Week 2 and why with our full chart below.

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The Overs the Numbers like:

Buffalo Bills – even 

The Bills will face off at home against the New York Jets. There’s tons of storylines the national media will drive home with this game that’ll skew perceptions, but an even line seems off.

Before the season began, Buffalo’s win total over/under was 8 wins, while the Jets were at 7.5. All of a sudden, the line makers are saying that was a mistake and New York is actually better and not just better, but 59-percent better than Buffalo (1.5 wins or 3 points on the spread, equals to 9.5 wins), a bold claim to be making with this line.

Buffalo was the team favored by a win and a half a week ago in the win totals and is playing at home. The Bills four point difference on their line is the biggest differential we currently have this week, as things stand, the logic is airtight.

New England Patriots by 6.5

The Patriots are a slightly trickier team to evaluate since their 10.5 win total number is based on having Tom Brady on the field and not Jimmy Garropolo. But the Pats were able to cover the 7-point spread last week and the numbers called that as well, giving the Arizona Cardinals as only a two-point favorite at home (New England won outright).

New England is favored by 6.5 at home against a Dolphins team, this week, who’s over/under win total was set at 7.5. Our suggested line has the Patriots as a 9 point favorite.

The big question here is Miami, as they looked solid on the road and covered the spread in Seattle of all places. We’re not as bullish here given the context of things, but still trust the numbers and take New England covering at home.

Stay Tuned

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3

At Pittsburgh, and remember that the Steelers win total was of 10.5 compared to Cincinnati’s 9.5. So while the line is set at 3 for the home team, our predictive model has the Steelers by 5. It should be a great game with talented teams, who know each other very well. If the line swings a bit towards Cincy taking this to 2.5 or even two, we really like the Steelers. For now, we’ll monitor it. Stay tuned!

Want to make a wager on these outcomes? Try MyBookie.LV and use the code BSNDENVER for a 100% match of your deposit. CLICK LINK HERE

The Unders the Numbers like:

Indianapolis Colts covering 6

We talked some in part one about how the Colts 9.5 win total number is already looking like one of the less accurate ones. The beauty of the numbers is we’re eliminating gut reactions like that and seeing how things play out, assuming Vegas and MyBookie knew what they were doing when they set these over/under numbers.

Indianapolis’ win total number was actually a half win higher than their opponent this week, the Denver Broncos. Even with the Broncos getting 3.5 points for their home field advantage, our metric has them favored by only 2.5, not 6. That’s a difference of 3.5 points on the spread in Indianapolis’ favor, the second highest early in the week.

Add the fact that the Colts have always seemed to give the Broncos a hard time, winning eight of the last nine and this feels a bit safer than initially thought. Even if they don’t win, an Indianapolis cover has some logic to it, regardless of our feelings on the Colts win total number.

Minnesota Vikings covering 2.5

The Green Bay Packers against the Vikings number is an appealing one with the Vikings being favored in our line by one, for a 3.5 differential from the actual spread. As the week progresses, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more movement on Green Bay, so keep an eye on this one.

The quarterback uncertainty for Minnesota does make them a bit of a wild card, especially if there’s a change this week, with Sam Bradford playing. Minnesota’s defense was great Week 1, but their offense struggled and required some defensive scores to cover last week. Doing so again against the Packers won’t be easy, which is why this line is where it is. Even so, the Packers didn’t look great against the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road and didn’t cover the 4.5 points, which our line predicted.

Stay Tuned

Kansas City Chiefs covering 2.5

The Chiefs had a wild game in which they didn’t cover the 6.5 point spread against the San Diego Chargers in overtime. But they came oh so close. The Houston Texans covered against the Chicago Bears and Brock Osweiler looked good, so they understandably have some excitement surrounding them early.

The Texans are favored by 2.5, our line has them at 1, so the margin is minimal. If there’s movement on Houston, we say pounce on the Chiefs who were favored by a whole win more than the Texans in the preseason win totals (9.5 vs 8.5).

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
NYJ	Even	7.5
@BUF	Even	8	1	3	4	4
CIN		9.5
@PIT	3	10.5	2	3	5	2
TEN		6				0.5
@DET	5.5	7	2	3	5
BAL	6	8.5	8		5
@CLE		4.5		3		1
DAL		8.5	2			1.5
@WSH	2.5	7.5		3	1
NO		7
@NYG	4.5	8.5	3	3	6	1.5
SF		5.5				0.5
@CAR	13.5	10.5	10	3	13
MIA		7.5
@NE	6.5	10.5	6	3	9	2.5
KC		9.5	2			1.5
@HOU	2.5	8.5		3	1
SEA	3.5	10.5	6		3
@LAR		7.5		3		0.5
TB		7.5
@AZ	6.5	10	5	3	8	1.5
JAX		7.5	1			1
@SD	3	7		3	2
ATL		7.5
@OAK	4.5	8.5	2	3	5	0.5
IND		9.5	1			3.5
@DEN	6	9		3.5	2.5
GB	2.5	10.5	2
@MIN		9.5		3	1	3.5
PHI		7.5
@CHI	3	7.5		3	3	0