We’re gaining some clarity in the NFL as we’ve reached the halfway mark and things seem to be making a bit more sense. Of course, injuries are a factor and DeShaun Watson’s season-ending ACL tear is just the latest terrible piece of news.

Beyond the injury factor what’s keeping us on our toes is that the Vegas spreads have caught up to our numbers, as the margins of difference between our projections and the bookmakers have greatly decreased the last few weeks.

That’s part of the reason why last week didn’t go so well as YPP went 3-8 overall straight up against the spread – the worst week we’ve had all season, while EW was 6-6. After winning all year, things are tightening up and we’ll have to be more judicious. Our picks didn’t do much better going 1-1-2 on the week with some of the most rotten possible luck – let’s just say we’re not fans of Travis Benjamin in the Simone household these days.

It’s no wonder why Vegas has now “come out ahead” in 50 consecutive months dating back to July 2013. All I know is that if Vegas is zeroing in on our numbers we must be doing something right.

That’s why we’re back at it and there’s a massive difference between our two metrics, which is directly opposed to what we were seeing last season. A year ago it was EW that was right on top of the spread, the last few weeks of this year it’s been YPP that’s on top of Vegas (or vice versa), as there’s only one spread that has a differential over 5 points (our preferred margin) in the entire week – at least that’s not injury affected. That’s unheard of this late in the year. EW instead has some massive differentials which we’re going to use to our advantage.

Also worth noting, the aforementioned Watson injury has swung the spread from the Houston Texans being -13 point favorites to now only -7 points. With how unreliable it is to project the offense with the switch at quarterback in our metrics we’d advise caution. The same goes for the Green Bay Packers who we still don’t have a large enough sample size of with Brett Hundley now at quarterback.

EW picks of the week

Carolina Panthers +1.5 versus the Atlanta Falcons

How things change in the NFL, as the Panthers go from being embarrassed by the Chicago Bears, in a game that set offensive football back a couple decades, to then doing the same to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week later. They’re certainly not reliable but they’re also humming on defense which you got to like. Atlanta’s been a mess and is pretty lucky to have pulled off the win a week ago to the New York Jets. Their offense hasn’t looked the same and they really have no business being favored on the road to anyone, especially a gritty divisional rival.

The teams are valued about the same per EW with the Panthers having the slightest edge. It’s basically a pick em which gives the Panthers a -4 point advantage once we add the home factor, that’s a 5.5 point differential making this an easy pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 versus the Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas is still giving the Bengals far too much respect and these Jaguars are for real, at least as far as EW is concerned. The Jags were actually a favorite of the metric to have a surprising 9.5 win season all the way back in the preseason, and so far they’ve produced. Jacksonville’s third in the NFL per point differential outscoring the opponents by 73 points.

They’re the eight best scoring offense and the league’s best scoring defense, making them EW’s highest projected team with 12.5 wins. That will probably be corrected in the second half of the season but those numbers and that defense are undeniable.

The Bengals offense is struggling which makes them a perfect prey for the Jags ferocious ‘D’. If the Jags have a lead they’re tough to stop with their powerful run game making them a perfect candidate to win big against the Bengals, and they’re at home.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at the New York Giants

The Rams are another EW favorite as they’re expected to win 12 games per the numbers on the strength of their second-best point differential in the NFL (74 points). Their offense has been a revelation this season, and it’s no fluke as they made big additions in the offseason and have had seen some youngsters develop.

The Giants on their end have regressed miserably and while their defense is still been good their offense is just awful. Against a Rams defense that hasn’t been great but is still only allowing 19.7 points per game that should spell trouble for the G-men. This spread would be bigger if it wasn’t a west coast team traveling out east for an 11 am game, but against a Giants team that’s 0-and-3 at home already losing by an average of 12 in each of those games, it’s less of a concern. None of the teams that beat them had an offense that’s been as good as the Rams, here’s to hoping the streak continues.

Bonus pick of the week

New Orleans Saints -7 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Caution is recommended here as the Saints aren’t favored by a large margin, yet EW still sees them as being undervalued despite being favored by a touchdown. Given how the Bucs are trending downwards and the Saints have won five in a row we like this pick.

The Saints have found enough balance offensively to make things work as of late, and with the emergence of Marshon Lattimore at cornerback and Cameron Jordan dominating up front their defense has been pulling their weight as well. That’s why the Saints are currently projected to win 10.5 games and have the league’s fifth-best point differential outscoring opponents by 46 points thus far.

Tampa’s differential is a whopping -20 on the season and -27 in their four-game losing streak. It doesn’t take a degree in statistics to know that’s not good. They also have the second-worst record against the spread in the NFL this season going 1-5-1. The Bucs lack of balance offensively is hurting them and the defense isn’t producing the way they were in a promising stretch to close out last season.

All that plus the home factor and the Saints seem like a smart bet to go over a touchdown here.

BSN ATS’ YPP & EW Week 9 lines