Trevor Story is less streaky than you think

When Trevor Story broke into MLB like a Dothraki Horse Lord, sacking city after city over a week that the bards will sing of for ages to come, some were inclined to see a fire that would quickly burn itself out.

Because baseball is a game of being humbled — a game of intrinsic failure — Story’s reign of terror subsided a bit after winning the National League Player of the Week in his very first opportunity to do so.

Of course, his numbers were always going to come down but as the strikeouts went up and the batting average sank to around .260 overall, some of Story’s doubters came out of the woodwork; at once silences, now full of confidence that we had witnessed a glorious fluke.

Today, it was announced that Story has won that award for the second time in 2016 after going nuclear yet again. At first glance, it might appear as though Story is the prototypical streaky baseball player whose overall numbers are either being propped up by insane hot stretches or are being submerged under slumps.

But … that isn’t really true.

When you nitpick his stats to exclude his first and most recent weeks (both of which he was named PoTW for) it turns out Trevor Story is still damn good, especially for a rookie.

In that 78-game sample size, Story hit .254/.329/.488, with 20 doubles and 14 home runs. That’s an .818 OPS. It’s not spectacular, but that is absolutely acceptable for a rookie who has also proven to be an above average defensive player.

Looking around the bigs at other rookies, Story’s .818 OPS would still be good for ninth among first-year players. And the 14 homers he has hit excluding his two best weeks would still be second best among rookies behind Corey Seager.

The jump between his batting average and on-base percentage during his “down time” shows you that even when he isn’t hitting as well, he is still seeing pitches and drawing walks. Troy Tulowitzki, in his rookie campaign, had an on-base percentage of .359 for the whole year, not much better than Story’s worst self.

Even without his best two weeks, Story has been a top rookie in baseball. Even free of his streaks, Trevor Story still shines.

It would be silly to deny that Trevor Story has been a bit streaky in 2016, and it is unlikely that he wins another NL Player of the Week award, but the more salient detail for those concerned about the long-term future of this franchise is that even when you cherry pick Story’s worst stats, all the signs point to a player who has the makings of a legitimate Major League star.