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Trade value and positions of need: What can we expect from the Broncos on Day 2?

Andrew Mason Avatar
April 24, 2020
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DENVER — Once a bid to move back up into Round 1 failed for John Elway and the Broncos on Thursday night, their attention turned to a Day 2 crop that doesn’t include any more players to whom they gave first-round grades, but does include plenty of talent.

“We feel like at 46 we’re still going to get a very good football player,” Elway said. “There are a lot of good football players left and being the 14th pick [Friday] in the second-round we feel like we’re going to get another really good football player.”

On Monday, Elway alluded to offensive tackle and wide receiver being positions of strength and depth in this year’s draft class.

One down, one to go.

But as the second day of the draft begin, the Broncos could be looking in other directions for value and immediate help: linebacker, interior offensive line or even safety if the value is right.

Cornerback is another position that should be in the Broncos’ sights.

“There are a pretty good amount of them — all of different flavors and different rounds we’d like to get them in, but yeah, there are some corners available,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said.

Value comes into play here. If the Broncos like Virginia’s Bryce Hall, could they roll the dice and wait until Round 3? His senior season began with a slower-than-expected start and ended in October because of a left ankle injury suffered on special teams.

Elway alluded Monday to the necessity of having to take a “leap of faith” on some injured players. Yet it is players in that category like Hall and Wisconsin center Tyler Biadasz who could free the Broncos up to go in another direction in the second round — assuming the Broncos have confidence that they could drop into Round 3.

If the Broncos eschew this strategy and want to find two clear starters Friday night, then consolidating some of their third-round capital into another second-round pick could be the best direction to seek.

SO LET’S TALK TRADE, THEN

Denver’s draft capital also comes into play when evaluating the right time to make trades. Three third-round picks provide flexibility and value, as noted by the value scales created by Jimmy Johnson (1 to 3000 points) and Bill Belichick (1 to 1000 points, which was synthesized and projected by Pats Pulpit in 2018):

NO. 77 OVERALL

  • Johnson value: 205 points
  • Belichick value: 59.85 points

NO. 83 OVERALL

  • Johnson value: 175 points
  • Belichick value: 52.44 points

NO. 95 OVERALL

  • Johnson value: 120 points
  • Belichick value: 40.26 points

NO. 118 OVERALL (ROUND 4)

  • Johnson value: 58 points
  • Belichick value: 24.15 points

Packaging the 77th and 118th picks would be worth 263 points on the Johnson scale and 84.0 points on the Belichick scale. On the former, the approximate worth is the second pick of the third round (No. 260 overall, 260 points); on the latter, it would be worth the 62nd overall pick, the third-to-last of Round 2 (83.98 points).

So for a mid-second-round pick, the Broncos will likely have to consolidate their Day 2 selections unless they trade from a future year.

NO. 77 PLUS NO. 83:

  • Johnson value: 380 points
  • Belichick value: 112.29 points
  • Approximate equivalence:
    • Johnson value: No. 52, L.A. Rams (380 points)
    • Belichick value: No. 51, Dallas (112.03 points)

NO. 77 PLUS NO. 95

  • Johnson value: 325 points
  • Belichick value: 100.11 points
  • Approximate equivalence:
    • Johnson value: No. 58, Minnesota (320 points)
    • Belichick value: No. 55, Baltimore (100.88 points)

NO. 83 PLUS NO. 95

  • Johnson value: 295 points
  • Belichick value: 92.70 points
  • Approximate equivalence:
    • Johnson value: No. 61, Minnesota (292 points)
    • Belichick value: No. 59, Baltimore (90.84 points)

To move up from No. 46, the Broncos would likely have to sacrifice their third- or fourth-round pick.

PLAYERS AT KEY POSITIONS WHO COULD BE ON THE BRONCOS’ RADAR:

(Numbers in parentheses indicate my overall ranking)

OFFENSIVE TACKLES

  • Josh Jones, Houston (22)
  • Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (32)
  • Ben Bartch, St. John’s (Minn.) (79)

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

  • Lloyd Cushenberry III, LSU (34)
  • Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (39)
  • Matt Hennessy, Temple (56)
  • Robert Hunt, Louisiana-Lafayette (64)

LINEBACKERS

  • Zack Baun, Wisconsin (15)
  • Malik Harrison, Ohio State (37)
  • Logan Wilson, Wyoming (57)
  • Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State (58)

CORNERBACKS

  • Bryce Hall, Virginia (35)
  • Kristian Fulton, LSU (38)
  • Jaylon Johnson, Utah (52)
  • Trevon Diggs, Alabama (63)
  • Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame (76)

SAFETIES

  • Xavier McKinney, Alabama (18)
  • Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (29)
  • Grant Delpit, LSU (33)
  • Jeremy Chinn, Southern Illinois (31)
  • Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (54)

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