Trade grades: Avalanche defense gets nastier with Josh Manson

I could write you the press release version of the Avalanche acquiring Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for defenseman Drew Helleson and a 2023 second-round pick, but grading things is just what we do here at DNVR so I’m doing that instead.

It’s important to note that Anaheim is eating half of Manson’s salary, which helps preserve cap space for the Avalanche as they go into next week’s trade deadline with the intention of continuing to add to their group as they chase the franchise’s third Stanley Cup title.

So, let’s grade this sucker.

Anaheim’s side

Giving up Helleson just after he finished his junior season at Boston College certainly stings some. The Avs used the 47th pick on him in 2019 and all he did after that was play great hockey for the Eagles and help the United States win a gold medal at the WJCs last year.

Helleson’s appeal to Colorado was in adding what they don’t have as much of on their blueline. He’s a big body with a snarl who enjoys the rough stuff and has enough puck skill to get by as he understands his limitations and plays a smart, safe game while being miserable to play against.

The reality in Colorado, however, was even if Helleson signed this week after the Eagles season ended, the road to the NHL was going to be a tricky one. Colorado’s defense is already well-stocked and with only Jack Johnson and Ryan Murray as expiring contracts, there isn’t likely a ton of turnover coming to that group.

Add in Justin Barron’s presence in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles and Helleson wasn’t even the top prospect vying for time with the Avalanche. Was a Stanley Cup contending team really going to go into next season with two rookies, Barron and Helleson, manning jobs? I don’t think that was ever in the cards, meaning Helleson was slated for either a dog fight for playing time with Barron in the AHL or Barron was off to the NHL and Helleson had plenty of room to stretch his legs with the Eagles because he wasn’t likely to see an NHL job soon.

It just made things tough for Helleson in Denver. He could have done that math on his own and decided to go back to Boston College for his senior year and gone into free agency in August on 2023, but that always represents risk on its own and isn’t a path many players successfully walk.

In truth, this is probably the best outcome for Helleson. He built his value up to the point where he’s the primary return in a deadline deal where the Avs get to focus on a Cup run and Helleson goes to an organization where he’ll try to be, well, the next Josh Manson and get a real opportunity with the Ducks.

The second-round pick in 2023 speaks to something I mentioned on yesterday’s podcast, which is the league is obsessed with 2023’s draft class and teams are prioritizing picks there. The Avs were happy to deliver in this case.

From the Ducks’ side, it’s not an overwhelming return and they fall short of the coveted first-round selection that teams always talk about trying to get back for their pending free agents, but they get a player who fits their identity and could help them soon and a pick somewhere in the top 62. Feels like solid B+usiness to me.

Colorado’s side

It’s a bummer to give up Helleson, but as mentioned above, his path to a job in Denver was complicated. On top of that, Helleson’s ceiling is very much a question mark, as it’s fair to wonder if he can become even a second-pairing defender with the limited offensive game. The upside is there, it’s just a matter of whether or not he can realize that full potential or not.

The Avs cashed in their Helleson chip on Manson, who is already 30-years-old and a pending UFA. The Ducks weren’t looking to give out term to any of Manson, Hampus Lindholm, or Rickard Rakell and that essentially ensured their departure from the organization, either at the deadline or this summer when they all hit the open market.

Manson is headed to an Avalanche organization that badly needed his skillset. While Jack Johnson has done an admirable job of moonlighting in Colorado’s top four at times this season, he’s a complete nothing with the puck. He doesn’t push play or generate any kind of offense whatsoever.

With Sam Girard now out four weeks, getting a defenseman at least capable of producing offense would have been nice. Unfortunately, that’s not really Manson’s bag (only one season over 20 points and he only has nine this year), so the defense will still be wanting in that area, but Manson’s acquisition isn’t about getting through Girard’s injury and chasing a President’s Trophy.

No, Manson is all about postseason play. At 6’3″, 230 pounds, he’s a big body who understands how to throw it around. He’s mean, he’s physical, and he’s absolutely miserable to play against. Watching Colorado beat Calgary last night, there were times when you could see the Flames attacking Colorado’s defenders with their physicality and not all of them looked comfortable with it.

Enter Manson, who is very comfortable with physicality. It’s the hallmark trait of his game. In fact, if you look through some of the microstats on Manson, Colorado’s interest in him becomes even more obvious.

Here you see that what Manson does best defensively, outside of hit people, is what Colorado as a team looks to do. The puck retrievals are very good, even if his exits on his own aren’t very good. That’s why you pair him with, when healthy, a player like Girard or even Bowen Byram (assuming health, obviously). He’s great at digging picks out and if he has some support breaking them out, is an asset back there.

His greatest strength, however, is denying the zone entries to begin with. This is an area the Avalanche are very good on the whole, so Manson’s aggression in denying the zone freely really stands out. He’s not allowing free passes into the zone and doing as at an elite rate. Teams don’t target him often because of his success but when faced with the option of going against him or Girard, they’re going to have to pick their poison.

Now if we dig into some of Manson’s isolated fancystats, there are pockmarks here.

Looking at that alone, it doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. A few things to note here that may have played a role in Manson’s significant dip the last two seasons.

His physicality led to some injury issues that only recently got taken care of and the coaching staff was, as our friend Felix Sicard over at The Fourth Period who covers the Ducks put it, a “rudderless ship” in terms of systems and usage.

Simply put, the leadership group didn’t know what to do with Manson or how best to utilize him anymore. After a brief period as one of the league’s more underrated defenders, Manson got put in a position where he was battling injuries for a coaching staff that had lost its way.

It was an ugly situation all-around and with things getting better this year, Manson had begun to bounce back to the player they had been accustomed to seeing him previously. Looking at his career arc, it isn’t hard to see where the Ducks took a downward turn as an organization which had a negative impact on Manson’s play.

You see the last two years and it makes sense. Now, Manson is 30 and players his age don’t typically just stop having injury problems, so it’s something to keep an eye on with a player as rugged as Manson is.

That said, with him healthy and feeling better recently, the returns have been good. The sample size is too small to be meaningful, but there’s hope he’s ready to contribute to Colorado’s Cup run.

The other aspect that will help Manson is he doesn’t have to do as much heavy lifting anymore. Colorado can provide a better support network around him and if the Avs actually get healthy around him, Manson could ultimately end on the second or third pairing.

A concern of Manson’s on-ice play has been his penchant for penalties. He’s tenth among NHL defenders right now in minors taken and he rarely draws calls in return, so he’s a guy who needs to play a disciplined game in order to try to help bolster Colorado’s 20th-ranked penalty kill.

When not in the box, Manson was actually second on Anaheim’s blueline in short-handed time on ice per game. He was a big part of the Ducks’ sixth-rated penalty kill. Now, systems have a lot to do with those units so don’t expect a massive uptick from Colorado’s PK just because Manson is an Av now, but it won’t be surprising if that group continues the upward trend it began back on January 14 when it was 31st in the NHL.

All in all, Manson is a great fit for what Colorado needed to add on the back-end. If the group ever gets healthy, it looks something like…

Toews – Makar
Girard – Manson
Byram – Johnson (Jack or Erik)
Murray – Johnson (Jack or Erik)

I’d also make both Johnsons and Murray completely interchangeable, and this assumes that all of those players even make it through the deadline in Colorado. For cap purposes, Murray’s $2M and expiring contract make him an awful tempting trade addition, but that’s tomorrow’s problem.

For now, looking how Manson fits into that defense, I’m not sure you can find a better or deeper defense in the entire league. Manson may not be a huge difference-maker in terms of making plays that end up on a highlight reel, but this is exactly the move the Avs didn’t make last year.

Given the price just isn’t that bad and the future was blocked for Helleson, I’m putting this as an A- for the Avalanche. Good, tidy business with lots of upside. It can go sideways (Patrik Nemeth last year, for example), as all deals can, but this fits the mold of a Cup contender making a meaningful addition to its blue line while also keeping the hard-to-play against Manson away from any of the other teams out West.