Tipped pucks make the difference in an otherwise one-sided Avalanche loss

Every year, there are games where a team generally just outplays their opposition but either opportunistic play or plain old good luck erases hard work and more effective all-around play.

I only bring this up for the obvious: the Avalanche deserved a better fate tonight.

There have been plenty of struggles in their recent games and certainly some real questions raised about the ceiling of this club but this one was different. There wasn’t anything you can point to in Arizona’s 3-2 win tonight that says they were the better team in any facet…except, of course, the final score.

It was another slow start on the scoreboard for the Avs as they again got down 2-0 for the third straight game but this one felt a little different. It wasn’t a lethargic or weak start in terms of energy. It wasn’t like the Coyotes came out with any real jump the Avs didn’t. None of that happened.

What did happen was a little bit of classic puck luck. There have been some arguments recently about Colorado’s struggles, especially offensively, being something of a result of not getting many good bounces. All of that remains true but tonight was the ultimate example of a team just on the bad end of the breaks that naturally happen in the game.

All of Arizona’s goals scored against Philipp Grubauer came on deflected pucks where Grubauer doesn’t have much of a chance to do anything differently. It sucks when there isn’t any one thing or person to blame but I just don’t see anything in this game the Avs did wrong.

This has been a matchup thoroughly handled by the Avs going back to their playoff series last year and tonight’s game was honestly a continuation of the territorial dominance we’ve become accustomed to when these teams meet.

By the numbers:

• Shot attempts were 67-29
• Shots on goal were 35-14 COL
• Scoring chances were 29-10
• High-danger chances were 10-4
• xGF was 2.07-.81

It was everything a beatdown should be and yet…the final score was 3-2 in favor of Arizona. Colorado’s greatest crime in this one was failing to capitalize on the many, many, many chances.

That’s what counts in the standings, so that’s how this game gets remembered. As far as what changes they need to make from this one?

Just score more.

TAKEAWAYS

• I wrote after last game about Colorado’s struggles in their desire to play low-to-high because they weren’t getting tips and taking away the goaltender’s eyes. We saw exactly how effective that game can be tonight because all of Arizona’s offensive success came on tipped pucks. It’s certainly not the most skilled way to go about business but it worked for the Coyotes this time around. Anecdotally, it just feels like the Avalanche haven’t had any success on offense with that sort of play. It has remained part of their gameplan but over the last week it hasn’t been nearly as prominent as in the past. I wonder how much of that is no Cale Makar and how much is them finding more success playing down low and right in front of the net.
• Mikko Rantanen as a center was an interesting idea. It was one we saw Patrick Roy try in Rantanen’s rookie year. Wherever he is right now, if Roy is watching, this was at least some kind of vindication that maybe his initial inkling was correct. Rantanen won seven of 12 faceoffs and absolutely dominated shot share with the Avs going 23 CF/9 CA with Rantanen on the ice. They also dominated in quality as the Avs had an 8-2 advantage in scoring chances. He only finished with two shots on goal himself and arguably the best scoring chance he had was a pass he made to Val Nichushkin for a one-timer that Darcy Kuemper got across to stop. Overall, my biggest nitpick of Rantanen’s game was on the PP where he made himself a little too easy to defend by drifting down near the red line and cutting down on his own shooting angle, removing the most dangerous scoring threat from this version of Colorado’s power play. It’s a minor nitpick but everything added up in a game like this.
• I really like the groove Brandon Saad is settling into. His goal scoring has been a little higher than expected at this point in the season but his overall profile is trending in the right direction. He’s smoothed out a lot of the inconsistencies we saw early in the year as he was adjusting to the team and he’s really playing solid hockey. It’s not incredible and he won’t confuse anybody for an All-Star but he’s finding a rhythm on the left side and he’s showing to be the player they thought they were getting in the offseason. He’s a solid two-way guy who is doing just fine. He didn’t really do a ton tonight but it was another performance fall of small things and little details that this team consistently struggles with. Just an appreciation is all.
• Val Nichushkin…three straight fire games. He finds ways to be a decent contributor a lot of nights but when he gets going on stretches like these (he did this last year right around 20 games into the season, too), he looks like a dynamic player with a real chance to be a difference-maker. It’s so easy to be seduced by these stretches of hot play that you want to see this version all the time. You know better by this point in his career but when he’s on a heater like this he sure is fun to watch.
• Love what Matt Calvert brings, especially next to a similar skillset in Logan O’Connor. Not going to hate on P.E. Bellemare here but I can’t help but wonder what that line would look like with a great skater like Shane Bowers in between the speedy Calvert and O’Connor duo to create a fourth line with speed, skill, and jam. I’m not beating the dead horse, more just saying “This would be fun to watch.” Sure wish Calvert had made a more dynamic play on his breakaway rather than stuffing the puck into the left pad of the goaltender.
• Speaking of goaltenders, I don’t really have anything to say about Grubauer giving up the goals he did tonight. Deflections like that are a total mess and there isn’t a goalie in the world I would expect to make those stops. Just how the game goes sometimes. On the other side, Darcy Kuemper’s random exit to injury was followed by a stretch where the Avs didn’t push much offensively. That’s a situation where you’d love to see a team smelling blood go into all-out attack mode on a cold goaltender in a close game. It didn’t happen that way, though, so it’s easy to sit back in my position and second-guess everything.