Three questions that will define the Nuggets' 20-game stretch run

Despite dropping two-straight games at home, the Nuggets still have the inside track on the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Denver enters Monday’s matchup in San Antonio with a three-and-a-half game lead on the Thunder and also have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Oklahoma City.

With just 20 games remaining in the regular season, here are three questions that will define the Nuggets’ stretch run as they close in on their first playoff appearance under Michael Malone.

Will Isaiah Thomas shake off the rust?

When Denver signed Thomas as a free agent back in July, part of the thinking was that his veteran presence would aid the Nuggets during the franchise’s first playoff appearance since the 2012-13 season. Outside of Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee, postseason experience in Denver is few and far between and Thomas has played in his fair share of high-intensity playoff moments.

“Mason has quite a bit of playoff experience. Paul and Isaiah have a lot,” Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly told BSN Denver last month. “A large portion of our locker room has little to no playoff experience, so you don’t know how they’re going to react until the big lights come on. But it’s fun when you look around and you have a handful of guys who have been there and can talk about what it’s like if we’re lucky enough to make the postseason.”

Thomas has underwhelmed in his first six games in a Nuggets uniform. As expected, he was rusty after returning from an 11-month absence but if Thomas can’t rediscover his pre-injury form over Denver’s final 20-game stretch run, it’s difficult to see him having a significant impact for the Nuggets in the playoffs. Through six games, Thomas is averaging 10.2 points but is shooting under 40 percent from the field and 30 percent from three. So far, he’s registered a paltry 8.45 PER, Denver is averaging only 94.1 points per 100 possessions with Thomas on the floor and has been outscored by 13 points in his 95 minutes. Thomas is a minus-22 in his last 42 minutes spanning three games.

Eight players are locked into the Nuggets’ playoff rotation — Denver’s five starters plus Mason Plumlee, Monte Morris and Malik Beasley. Torrey Craig will also be useful for the Nuggets in a playoff setting and while I wouldn’t project Juancho Hernangomez or Trey Lyles, once he returns from injury, to log significant minutes in the postseason, they could be used situationally.

Down the stretch, Thomas will need to fit into Denver’s read-and-react, equal opportunity offense better and find his touch around the basket. He’s struggled to gain separation from defenders when given a screen, and when he’s gotten into the paint, Thomas hasn’t been able to finish. He’s shooting just 42 percent at the rim so far.

Can Denver’s starting five log ample minutes together down the stretch?

Injuries have robbed Denver of its best five-man lineup for most of the year, but the Nuggets were finally able to start a game with their opening night starting lineup for the first time since the second game of the season Saturday versus New Orleans. The results were as expected, as Denver opened up a quick 11-3 advantage and in 15 minutes of action, the Jamal Murray-Gary Harris-Will Barton-Millsap-Nikola Jokic lineup outscored its opponent 17-9. That group would have logged even more time together if Jokic had been able to stay out of foul trouble.

Denver’s starting five is one of the most potent lineups in the league. It’s not only stocked with talent, but Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap and Jokic also possess incredible chemistry and cohesion that’s apparent whenever the group takes the court. together They’re unselfish and look to set one another up with easy opportunities.

(Side note: This possession — the first one of the game and the Nuggets’ starters first few seconds together since the second game of the regular season — had it all. Dribble-hand-offs, multiple off-ball actions, Murray setting a screen for Jokc (the most-used two-man screening combination in the league, and of course a made basket.)

“I think everyone in that starting five has a high basketball IQ. Everyone’s always a threat with their ability to handle, to shoot and attack,” said Barton. “When you’ve got that many guys on the court that can do so many things with the ball it’s always tough to guard. You have to respect and defend everyone on the court. And that’s tough.”

Denver has a 121.9 Offensive Rating and 37.3 Net Rating in the 69 minutes that its starting five has logged together, but maybe the most underrated aspect of that group is their play on the defensive end of the floor. The Nuggets have an 84.2 Defensive Rating when their starters have played together this season and Denver is holding its opponent to 35.8 percent shooting from the field and 25.5 percent from three in those minutes.

Last season, the Nuggets’ starters played 65 minutes together and outscored their opponent 179-126. In 69 minutes this season, they’ve outscored their opponent 178-123. Their starters’ cumulative plus-minus over the last two seasons in 134 total minutes? Plus-108

Internally, the Nuggets weren’t worried about their starters needing minutes on the court together to mesh and rediscover their early-season chemistry. They’ve been right and Denver’s first five has picked up just where they left off. As long as injuries don’t hit over the final 20 games, the Murray-Harris-Barton-Millsap-Jokic five-man lineup, which will be the Nuggets’ most-used combination by far in the playoffs, will continue to post gaudy offensive and defensive numbers. That means more wins down the stretch.

Is the Nuggets’ defensive resurgence for real?

Denver won games with its defense over the first two months of the season when the Nuggets were a steady top-five defensive unit. Over the next two months, Denver ranked 24th in defense but the Nuggets have surged following the mid-February All-Star break on that end of the floor. The Nuggets now rank 10th in defensive efficiency with 20 games remaining.

Part of Denver’s defensive resurgence has been due to health. Harris and Millsap, who are arguably the Nuggets’ top two defenders, each suffered through multiple injuries over December, January and February but now look 100 percent. On the season, Denver is giving up a healthy 103.8 points per 100 possessions in the 775 minutes that Harris and Millsap have shared the floor.

Another aspect of Denver’s improved defense as of late, which is the best in the league over the last seven games, is improved defensive play from Murray. The Nuggets’ point guard hasn’t been a consistent defensive presence this season, but his increased effort and attention to detail on that end of the floor over the last few weeks has been noticeable.

“I would say effort, urgency,” Malone said last week in regards to where he’s seen improvement from Murray on defense. “I talked to him going into the break. He was kind of down, his shot wasn’t falling, he’s turning the ball over, he didn’t like how he was guarding, and I kept reminding him. I said ‘You’re allowing your shot to dictate everything else and if you do that you’re saying you’re a specialist, you’re just a shooter and you’re doing yourself a disservice.’ Jamal is a complete basketball player.

“In that Dallas game, I thought his defense was amazing, inspirational. He had a play where he was out of bounds on one end of the floor, got back and wound up blocking a shot on the other end. A winning play. It’s effort, it’s urgency. It’s understanding with 23 games to go we have to be playing at our best level.”

Here’s the play Malone was referencing.

Murray made a few other standout defensive plays against Dallas, and in the first quarter of the Nuggets’ loss to the Jazz, Murray strung together three-straight solid defensive sequences.

The Nuggets’ guards have struggled to contain dribble penetration over the last couple of years, which has contributed to Denver’s poor team defensive numbers under Malone prior to this season. On the year, the Nuggets are giving up 107.1 points per 100 possessions with Murray on the floor but over Denver’s last seven games that number has dropped to 102.1

Getting above-average defensive play from Murray and the rest of the Nuggets’ roster over Denver’s remaining 20 games will go a long way towards locking up the No. 2 seed in the West.