Three areas where the Denver Nuggets are struggling the most

 

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The Denver Nuggets are struggling to win basketball games. At a quarter of the way through the season the Nuggets are 8-13, having suffered numerous “bad” losses while barely scraping by the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday to crack a three-game losing streak. Though injuries have certainly hindered the Nuggets’ overall success there’s no denying the product on the floor isn’t what fans expected heading into the season.

Like most humans, fans instinctively flock to their respective corners in times of struggle, often blaming easy targets as the problem. But the reality of comprehensive breakdowns is often quite complex, with various malfunctioning pistons firing in sync. The Nuggets are in no way immune to this concept and though it’s difficult to pinpoint every last one of Denver’s mishaps there is without question a trio of issues, laid forth below, most fans should agree aren’t helping Michael Malone and Co. in their quest to win basketball games.

Lineups and minutes distribution

Perhaps the Nuggets’ most perplexing and troublesome malady through the early part of the season is Malone’s erratic lineups and minutes distribution. There’s no telling who’s going to play in each quarter of every game, who will close out the fourth and who will see heavy minutes in the first half only to ride pine from there on out. To further illuminate this point, consider the following per NBA.com:

— Only one player on the Nuggets’ roster averages more than 30 minutes per game (Danilo Gallinari) while nine players average between 15 and 30 minutes per game. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics, a team similar to the Nuggets with regards to roster construction, have three guys averaging over 30 minutes per game and only six guys getting between 15 and 30, while the Utah Jazz, another squad with comparable makeup to the Nuggets, have four guys averaging 30 minutes or more and seven players between 15 and 30. Additionally, the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers, each title contenders in their own right, have three guys averaging over 30 minutes per game and only six players logging between 15 and 30 minutes per game.

— The offensive rating, in order, of players who see regular time in Malone’s rotation is Darrell Arthur, Wilson Chandler, Jameer Nelson, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gallinari, Will Barton, Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic. The net rating order of these same players is Arthur, Murray, Chandler, Jokic, Nelson, Gallinari, Barton, Faried, Mudiay, Nurkic and Harris.

— The Nuggets’ most utilized five-man rotation ranks 89th in the NBA in minutes played and includes Juancho Hernangomez, which tells you all you need to know about how often this lineup sees the floor. The Nuggets’ next most popular five-man rotations rank 101st, 102nd, 108th, 127th and 132nd in minutes played.

— The Nuggets have not a single five-man unit that’s played in more than eight games together and that unit — comprised of Gallinari, Chandler, Mudiay, Barton and Nurkic — has a net point differential of zero.

— Denver’s two best lineups include Chandler, Gallinari and Nelson, while the Nuggets’ worst five-man rotations have essentially been their starting lineups for most of the year with Nurkic, Mudiay and Gallinari being a common thread in all.

— Of the Nuggets’ 13 most-used lineups only five outscore their opponents.

— The Nuggets’ three five-man rotations that have logged the most minutes have a combined -12.2 net rating.

Translation: When Mexico’s Malone’s sending his players he’s not sending his best. 

Essentially what the Nuggets have are no rotations that see a heavy combination of minutes together and the very few that get relatively consistent time get handily outperformed by their opponents. Instead of a rotation where Malone clearly delineates a starting unit of his most talented players that sees the floor as often as their endurance allows and subsequently follows this group with a supporting cast of less effective talent that plays fewer minutes than the starters — as has been traditionally carried out for decades in the NBA — Malone has chosen a starting lineup that doesn’t include his best players, doesn’t log many minutes together and doesn’t close out games. Meanwhile, his second unit is less a “unit” than a cacophony of lineups that change as frequently as the weather depending on likely factors such as effort, offensive production, shooting percentage, defensive positioning and so on. Truth is, on some nights you may see the bench for simply walking with the wrong foot in front of the other for as far as I can tell.

To win games in the NBA you have to play your best players and you have to play them together. The Nuggets best players at this point in the season are Gallinari, Chandler, Murray and Jokic. In a different system that rewards good basketball these guys would be starters; instead, three come off the bench and only one averages more than 30 minutes per game.

This “Wheel of Fortune” method to selecting which guys play on a nightly basis is not a sustainable strategy for winning basketball games and neither is it an effective way to foster development and growth for much of the Nuggets’ youth. Like all growing life forms, basketball players need time and proper nourishment in order to achieve adulthood. They need time to make mistakes, learn from those mistakes and correct those mistakes, and if they aren’t afforded that time or if they’re kept on a leash more conducive to strangulation than education then they just won’t grow up to be the basketball players they’re capable of becoming.

Roster structure

Judging by Twitter (never a good way to start a sentence) and the comments sections of other Nuggets-related social media platforms, Malone is currently Public Enemy No. 1 in terms of assigning blame for why the Nuggets have struggled to start the season. But despite his shaky rotations and questionable late-game micromanaging, Malone cannot and should not account for all the Nuggets’ downfalls. A fair amount of this burden must instead be placed at the feet of Tim Connelly and Josh Kroenke, and here’s why…

For years — literally, years — the Nuggets to have solid depth if nothing else. For years, many have poured over trades to empty some of Denver’s depth onto another team in exchange for a single star or at least an upgrade at any position on the floor. And for years the Nuggets have done absolutely nothing about this dilemma. Say what you want about Masai Ujiri but one thing he did not fear was swinging for the fences and making a big trade.

Unfortunately for Connelly and Co. that trade has yet to arrive and at this point, there’s reason to be concerned Denver’s assets may not carry the intrigue they once did. Faried, once thought to possess intriguing potential, is what he is: an energetic role player who excels neither on offense nor defense. Nurkic, on the other, hand seems to have regressed from the time he came into the league delivering point-guard quality bounce passes from the post. Mudiay could be justifiably supplanted from his position as the Nuggets starting point guard after setting Summer League afire less than two years ago. And Nikola Jokic is logging less than 25 minutes per game after actually requesting to go to the bench rather than play alongside Nurkic in Malone’s initial twin towers starting lineup.

How much blame Malone should assume for these performances can and will be debated for as long as they remain a hindrance to the Nuggets’ success. What cannot be debated, however, is the fact Malone does indeed have a difficult task in terms of distributing minutes due to the roster overlap that seems to have increased for years. Gallinari and Chandler are near facsimiles of one another in strengths, weaknesses, injuries and attitude — in fact, I don’t know that there are two more identical teammates in the entire NBA. The Nuggets also have two young and budding centers with remarkably indistinguishable traits. They have three power forwards who’s best attributes might all be hustle. Then there are the five shooting guards (including Murray) on the roster, three of whom you could make a case for starting. And given Murray’s size, handle, vision and speed, the Nuggets might as well have three point guards all worthy of substantial time with the ball their hands.

Complicating matters even more so is the realization that aside from Murray not a single player on the roster possesses a level of innate talent that distinguishes them from the rest of the pack. Sure Gallinari and Chandler are the most productive players on the team, but can you really make the case that given the same number of minutes Jokic, Harris and Barton wouldn’t at least have a similar impact? And what’s to say for veterans like Faried, Arthur and Nelson who are currently locked down for at least one more year each and not only expect to play but deserve to play? The reality of the Nuggets’ roster construction throughout Connelly’s regime is one with anywhere from 10-15 players in the same tier, and rather than moving closer to a military echelon they are instead resembling a hippy commune as time goes on.

Surely the sky remains intact and high above ground, and many of these trends could potentially be reversed with some lineup tweaks, but Connelly’s had this issue on his hands for over three years now and has yet to address it. Instead, he’s continued to sign and re-sign the same quality players who expect minutes, draft the same quality players who need minutes and has left it up to his coaches to mollify egos and showcase an additional and sometimes overlapping faction of players for trade purposes. As Malone may now be discovering, any man asked to juggle more than he can handle will inevitably be viewed as a clown.

Defense

While some fans have taken issue with Malone’s offense it’s not that end of the floor that’s really hurting the Nuggets. Though they’ve struggled mightily with turnovers (27th in the league) the Nuggets still rank ninth in points per game, second in free-throws attempted, third in points in the paint, 17th in points per possession, 18th in assists, 13th in 3-pointers made and 17th in assist percentage. Overall the Nuggets could be much more efficient but considering their leading scorer is averaging a career high 18 points per game I don’t think anyone should expect them to be blowing teams out on a nightly basis.

Where the Nuggets have struggled  much more is on defense, where they rank 26th in points allowed, 22nd in defensive rating, 21st in opponents’ field goal percentage, 26th in steals, 22nd in blocks, 22nd in opponents’ point off turnovers, 28th in opponents’ points in the paint, 29th in opponents’ turnovers, 28th in defended field goals made, 26th in field goal percentage inside six feet, 29th in contested 3-point shots, 23rd in overall contested defensive shots and 29th in deflections.

Interestingly enough the Nuggets rank respectably in several hustle categories like charges (third), loose balls recovered (10th) and rebounds (first), and as anyone who watches the Nuggets on a consistent basis well knows this team is absolutely, positively, whole heartedly determined to support one another no matter how poor they play — which is great — but this is yet again an unsustainable strategy for winning most of the remaining 60-plus basketball games on the schedule. If the Nuggets really want to turn things around they should concentrate less on group hugs and high fives and more on getting into proper defensive stances and defending the pick-and-roll.